Raul Castro Demands Return of Guantanamo Bay, End of Trade Embargo

[Malthus]

An end to the trade embargo simply makes sense - it is incoherent to have 'normalized relations' and maintain a trade embargo.

As for the rest ... what's Cuba's leverage to get compensation or a return of Guantanamo? Seems to me that whoever upthread said this was just negotiation tactics has it right.

My prediction: no compensation, lengthy "negotiations" over the status of Guantanamo, eventual return of the base when the US public gets used to the notion of cheap Cuban vacations and cigars and so it will not be too politically costly for the then-sitting President to hand it over as a cold-war relic. 

[CountDeMoney]

Not what I was talking about, ya goof.

http://www.cubagob.cu/

And the name on the door still says "United States of America", but as we all know, it's not your "United States of America" anymore.   

[The Minsky Moment]

Now, they are perfectly within their rights to refuse to normalize relations until the US relinquishes control over Gitmo, and are not being unreasonable in so demanding.  However, the argument that *they* didn't sign the treaty is bullshit; they'd do better to argue that  the treaty was signed under duress, and challenge its validity that way.

They could also unilaterally cancel the lease, and pay "appropriate" compensation, whatever that would be . . .

[The Minsky Moment]

As for the rest ... what's Cuba's leverage to get compensation or a return of Guantanamo?

I'm a little shaky on public intl law, but I do think a sovereign state retains the absolute right to expropriate property (including revocation of concessions or leases) subject to a good faith duty to compensate.  The US does not dispute that Gitmo falls within Cuban territory.  Thus once it recognizes the Cuban government, it will either have to go if Cuba says so, stay and violate international law, or negotiate some other solution with Cuba up front.

I agree it is a negotiation issue but one where the background principles do give Cuba some leverage.

[Berkut]

Apparently the lease is worth about $5,000/year. So they could pay for, say, 100 years worth of compensation. Just cancelling all those checks stuffed in a drawer should cover most of it.

[The Minsky Moment]

Apparently the lease is worth about $5,000/year. So they could pay for, say, 100 years worth of compensation. Just cancelling all those checks stuffed in a drawer should cover most of it.

That's the cost of the lease, not the value.  There are all sorts of arguments that could be made or positions taken on this issue, but the big problem from the US side is that there is no bilateral investment treaty.  Thus presumably calculation of compensation would follow domestic Cuban law, though perhaps as modified by some international norm or principle of good faith.

Someone with better knowledge re international public law should chime in.

[derspiess]

They could also unilaterally cancel the lease, and pay "appropriate" compensation, whatever that would be . . .

I'd accept a lifetime supply of Bolivar Belicosos Finos in compensation. 

[Berkut]

If they agree to take the prisoners, we should call it even.

[Josephus]

One word, well more, about the notion that I keep seeing bandied about here and on TV and newspapers. "Cheap Cuban vacations."

There's this notion that Cuban vacations are cheaper than anywhere else and the resorts are dirty, cheap, cockroach infested places. As Bill Maher recently said, "stuck in the 60s."

As one who's been to Cuba, Mexico, Dominican Republic, it's important to clarify that the resorts in Cuba are comparable with resorts in both those two nations, in quality and prices. (at least in Canada).

They're what I call "working class vacation resorts." I've been to Granada, Aruba and Bahamas and those are all a step-above.

I'm going to Cuba at the end of Feb. and a 4+ resort where I stay costs close to $2000 for a week. There are pricer ones. There are cheaper ones. Same in Mexico or Dominican. I wouldn't stay in anything less than a 4star in either of these three places.

What would be interesting, once travel restrictions get lifted, is if Cuba aims higher, say to compete with Bahamas, or remain competitive with Mexico. Either way I'm sure Mexico isn't too thrilled about this.

[grumbler]

I think that it would be very difficult for the US to show that it suffered a lot of harm from a Cuban revocation of the lease.  Its value was mostly as an irritant to the Cuban government.  Even the location of the prison there is a result of a failed attempt by the Bush administration to pretend the US Constitution doesn't apply to the U.S. President.  Given that the President does gain his powers from the constitution, that prison could be located anywhere.

[CountDeMoney]

What would be interesting, once travel restrictions get lifted, is if Cuba aims higher, say to compete with Bahamas, or remain competitive with Mexico. Either way I'm sure Mexico isn't too thrilled about this.

Mexico's been losing American business since they've been chopping off more heads than ISIS down there;  I think the biggest impact--as far as American tourism goes--will be felt in Puerto Rico.

You know who's chomping at the bit to get down there?  Gringo car enthusiasts trying to get down there to get into bidding wars, offering a Cuban family more money than they've seen in 25 years for their DeSoto.   

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

You know who's chomping at the bit to get down there?  Gringo car enthusiasts trying to get down there to get into bidding wars, offering a Cuban family more money than they've seen in 25 years for their DeSoto.

Oh yeah, the reimport market is going to take off once the trade issues get cleared up.  All the good stuff is way too old for the red tape on newer car imports, too.

[Josephus]

Yes, car enthusiasts will love Havana.
Those cars are only 57 chevys on the outside though, old Russian ladas under the hood, but I guess that doesnt' matter so much.

[Siege]

But I hear Gitmo is a very important base for the US to project power to Central and South America. I say lets keep the base and fuck the commies, Interview style.

[frunk]

But I hear Gitmo is a very important base for the US to project power to Central and South America. I say lets keep the base and fuck the commies, Interview style.

Are you saying we need a base a hundred miles off our shores to project power thousands of miles, instead of using one of the other bases on the mainland?