May 2015 UK General Election Campaign.

[Gups]

I really thought that Cameron ducking the debates was very poor political thinking by him and his team and expected a drop of a couple of points in the polls for the Tories. Instead, there's been a pretty clear shirt from a slight Labour lead to a slight Tory one. Shows what I know.

Nevertheless, I'm currently calling it for the Tories- as biggest party rather than with a majority. My prediction:

Tories: 36%
Labour: 32%
UKIP: 13%
Lib Dems: 8%
Greens: 4%

I anticipate SNP support falling away from its current peak but them still dominating, getting 35-40 seats although I must admit there's no good reason to think this.

Just curious, but why doesn't SNP show up in the polling?

That's my prediction rather than a poll.

However, the SNP won't show up in a lot of national polls in any event. I guess because the sample size of Scottish voters within a national poll is too small. Much better to look at specific Scottish polls where the SNP is doing very well indeed.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The functional kitchenette is allegedly for the live-in nanny!

Oh dear; I don't think an "Upstairs, Downstairs" vibe really helps Milliband here.

No doubt the media can now spend several days pondering the race and nationality of the live-in nanny. It's like living in a crappy C5 soap opera 

[Syt]

Questions to Brits: regardless of Milliband's awkwardness as a human being, is he a capable politician at least, so that you could disregard his, uhm, quirks?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Speaking for my limited circle, people seem to increasingly think that he is a decent person but the doubts about his competence are growing.

[Gups]

Questions to Brits: regardless of Milliband's awkwardness as a human being, is he a capable politician at least, so that you could disregard his, uhm, quirks?

I  have some respect for the fact that he has managed to retain party unity in opposition and has been stubbornly resilient throughout, refusing to panic when under quite relentless attack. He was an OK Sec of State for Energy and came out of the Parliamentary Expenses fiasco smelling of roses.

On the other hand, his presentational ability is utterly woeful ad he has signally failed to give his party any sense of strategic direction. A few crappy populist policies here and there (mansion tax, energy capping) but otherwise no real sense of what the Labour party is for. 

[Gups]

My vote is up for grabs, any party that announces "given that the rate of household formation in the UK is 250k per annum we plan to increase housebuilding from 110k a year to 300k a year" will get my vote.

Meh, anyone can promise that. Putting the policies in place to achieve it is a very different matter. They basically require some combination of scrapping local democratic input into planning decisions, ending the green belt and allowing urban sprawl or significant public subsidies for house builders.

[Richard Hakluyt]

My vote is up for grabs, any party that announces "given that the rate of household formation in the UK is 250k per annum we plan to increase housebuilding from 110k a year to 300k a year" will get my vote.

Meh, anyone can promise that. Putting the policies in place to achieve it is a very different matter. They basically require some combination of scrapping local democratic input into planning decisions, ending the green belt and allowing urban sprawl or significant public subsidies for house builders.

You are quite right, a mere announcement is insufficient, a properly worked-out policy is necessary......I mis-spoke 

You also said "a few crappy populist policies here and there (mansion tax, energy capping) but otherwise no real sense of what the Labour party is for", I thoroughly agree with this and think that it is why the SNP have hoovered up the Labour votes. Unless Labour get some decent leftish policies on the table then their votes are ripe for the taking by a usurper party.

[PJL]

I think part of the problem is that Ed's been TOO good at trying to maintain party unity. Had he been a bit more bold and ruffled more feathers in his first couple of years, he could have repositioned Labour as somewhere between New & Old Labour, and been better able to stop the threat from Greens & the SNP.

[Tamas]

How valid old style leftism is by now, anyways? "We need more spending. More spending is what we need. Higher taxes, too." Would that really win the election?

[Valmy]

How valid old style leftism is by now, anyways? "We need more spending. More spending is what we need. Higher taxes, too." Would that really win the election?

Taxes on the rich, not you.

[Admiral Yi]

Taxes on the rich, not you.

This is the New Old Left.

[Martinus]

Well, I think there should be a 100% inheritance tax, with a certain tax free amount (say, $100,000).

[Tamas]

Well, I think there should be a 100% inheritance tax, with a certain tax free amount (say, $100,000).

Have you asked your parents about this?

I mean, surely there must be some human beings who are able to explain to you how that goes against all human instincts on leaving a legacy or just leaving something behind for your family.

[Valmy]

Well, I think there should be a 100% inheritance tax, with a certain tax free amount (say, $100,000).

This is possibly the stupidest idea I have ever heard. Everybody with any money will flee the country, leaving the middle classes as the only ones to be fucked over by your scheme will the rich just keep getting richer. But I guess that is basically true with all of these sorts of plans.

[Tamas]

Well, I think there should be a 100% inheritance tax, with a certain tax free amount (say, $100,000).

This is possibly the stupidest idea I have ever heard. Everybody with any money will flee the country, leaving the middle classes as the only ones to be fucked over by your scheme will the rich just keep getting richer. But I guess that is basically true with all of these sorts of plans.

The more centrally planned and redistributed an economy is, the worse it performs, but this is something lost on a lot of people.