NFL Postseason Megathread: Playoffs in the Post-Orton Era

[sbr]

Man, the more I read in this report, the more amusing it is to see people pick out little pieces in order to pretend like the entire thing is all bullshit.

The ridiculous level of detail and effort they went to evaluate some footballs is an indication of

A) How hard they tried to head off exactly this kind of nit picking, and

B) How much work professionals can go to when someone with deep pockets asks for a report, they bill hourly, and there isn't any limit to the cost.

Just a sample:

Gauge-to-Gauge Variability and Accuracy
The following set of experiments was performed to address the following two questions:
1. If multiple gauges, including the Game Day Gauges, are used to measure an identical
pressure, what is the variability of readings among all of the gauges? Another way of posing
this question is "What is the precision of these gauges?"
2. If the Game Day and Exemplar Gauges are used to measure a pressure for which the
true value is known, how close do their readings come to the true pressure? That is, how
accurate (or true) are these gauges?19
Experimental Procedure
To determine both the precision and accuracy of the gauges, a fixture with a common manifold
was constructed that allowed for multiple Exemplar Gauges to simultaneously be exposed to
common temperature and pressure conditions. A single high-accuracy gauge (Omega DPG4000-
30) with NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) traceable calibration was also
connected to the manifold to record actual pressure data (for the remainder of this report, this will
be referred to as the "Master Gauge"). The test fixture with Exemplar Gauges and the Master
Gauge attached to the manifold is shown in Figure 5.
19 The usage of precision, accuracy, and true in this context are in accordance with the terminology of ISO Standard 5725-1.
MAY 6, 2015 19
Figure 5. The gauge-to-gauge repeatability experiment setup with multiple Exemplar Gauges,
Game Day Gauges (not shown), and a Master Gauge connected to a manifold such
that all gauges are exposed to identical pressures.
A computer controlled regulator was used to adjust the air pressure within the manifold. The
manifold was pressurized to a nominal pressure of 13.00 psig, and held for several seconds
until the pressure readings on all gauges settled to their final respective values. Once the readings
remained constant, the values for each gauge were recorded. The pressure was then vented, and
all Exemplar Gauges were power cycled and the Master Gauge re-zeroed. The manifold was then
re-pressurized to 13.00 psig and the above procedure was repeated. Each set of 10 gauges went
through 10 pressurization and recording cycles. Overall, 50 Exemplar Gauges were analyzed
using this method, in five sets of ten gauges. The Game Day Gauges were also subjected to this
analysis.
Results and Discussion
The data in Figure 6 show the results of the above experiments. The plot on the left shows the
variation in average readings generated when the Exemplar Gauges were compared to the
Master Gauge. On the right, the variation within a gauge (i.e., gauge repeatability) is shown.
The data indicate that although the gauges tended to over- or underestimate the true pressure, the
measurements recorded by an individual gauge were self-consistent. In other words, an individual
gauge may read slightly incorrectly as compared to the Master Gauge, but that error is consistent
MAY 6, 2015 20
for all readings taken by that particular gauge.20 This held true for the Game Day Gauges: the
Logo Gauge generally overestimated the Master Gauge by ~0.3-0.4 psig and the Non-Logo
Gauge generally read slightly below the Master Gauge by ~0.07 psig, but both gauges were
self-consistent.21, 22

Listening to sbr and Tim and grumbler pick out particular data points while ignoring the overall conclusions is like listening to YECers point out that since two carbon dating methods predict a rock is either 4 billion or 4.3 billion years old, then clearly we can go with the 6000 year old bible as the definitive answer.

Please provide examples of where I ignored, or even disagreed with the reports conclusions.  I already said that the ballboys probably deflated the balls at Brady's direction.  Just because the NFL prejudged the case and paid for a document that backed up those judgements doesn't automatically make it false, it makes it a farce by an organization that can't get out of its own way, even when tipped off.

Of course you can't get your head out of the league's, or more likely your official brethren's asses long enough to see the gaping holes and logical inconsistencies in the report.

[sbr]

And here is an example of the rigorous pressure tests the officials use pre-game:

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/22/deflategate-video-how-nfl-officials-check-game-ball-pressure/

12.5, eh close enough.   And they knew they were on camera, I wonder what they do when no one is watching.

The guy freaking out when air starts leaking out when he sticks the needle in is pretty good too.

[Valmy]

My initial reaction was that the penalty was disproportionately harsh but the more BS special pleading I hear from the Pats side the more I am starting to wonder whether this was a message that needed to be sent after all.

The NFL should hammer them. The Pats should just be saying 'yeah whatever we won the Super Bowl' not whine like bitches.

[sbr]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/14/wells-contradicts-his-own-report-regarding-mcnally-texts/

The guy who wrote the report doesn't even know what his investigation came up with.

[Berkut]

And here is an example of the rigorous pressure tests the officials use pre-game:

http://mmqb.si.com/2015/01/22/deflategate-video-how-nfl-officials-check-game-ball-pressure/

12.5, eh close enough.   And they knew they were on camera, I wonder what they do when no one is watching.

The guy freaking out when air starts leaking out when he sticks the needle in is pretty good too.

LOL. The guys says "Woah". OMG. They are so clearly incompetent.

And yes, "12.5" is in fact "close enough". Since that is in the range of 12.5-13.5.

[grumbler]

Though the league has to reinstate them, so it might be splitting hairs deciding whether the Patriots suspended them on their own accord or because the league told them to.

So you agree with me, or disagree with me, that it is premature to use the "Patriots suspend employees" issue as evidence of some sort regarding Patriot corporate motives?  I agree that assigning any value to this is splitting hairs, but then I wasn't the one to bring up the issue because it seemed to me so moot.

[grumbler]

My initial reaction was that the penalty was disproportionately harsh but the more BS special pleading I hear from the Pats side the more I am starting to wonder whether this was a message that needed to be sent after all.

The NFL should hammer them. The Pats should just be saying 'yeah whatever we won the Super Bowl' not whine like bitches.

I am sure that, if someone fined you, personally, two million dollars without a speck of proof that you had done anything wrong, you'd "whine" as well.  But I agree that it is better that the NFL decided to inflict such a grievous penalty, because it made the lies worth fighting.

I look forward to watching Wells and Goodell getting their fannies reddened in court.  Of course, the judge will be just jerking Berkut around when he lowers the boom on all that bullshit, but it will still be a sight to see.

[Berkut]

My initial reaction was that the penalty was disproportionately harsh but the more BS special pleading I hear from the Pats side the more I am starting to wonder whether this was a message that needed to be sent after all.

The NFL should hammer them. The Pats should just be saying 'yeah whatever we won the Super Bowl' not whine like bitches.

I am sure that, if someone fined you, personally, two million dollars without a speck of proof that you had done anything wrong,

Not a speck of proof? Not even just one little spec?

Right.

[Valmy]

I am sure that, if someone fined you, personally, two million dollars without a speck of proof that you had done anything wrong, you'd "whine" as well.

If I was Robert Kraft I think I would handle it.

But the Pats know they were bending the rules to get an edge. I think it is charming they did so in such a traditional way but when you get caught you have to pay the piper.

[crazy canuck]

My initial reaction was that the penalty was disproportionately harsh but the more BS special pleading I hear from the Pats side the more I am starting to wonder whether this was a message that needed to be sent after all.

The NFL should hammer them. The Pats should just be saying 'yeah whatever we won the Super Bowl' not whine like bitches.

I am sure that, if someone fined you, personally, two million dollars without a speck of proof that you had done anything wrong, you'd "whine" as well. 

Sure.  But you haven't provided a good explanation for why the Patriots are whining.

[grumbler]

Not a speck of proof? Not even just one little spec?

Right.

Exactly.  Just like in this case.  there isn't a speck of evidence that Brady was involved in any conspiracy of any sort.  hell, there isn't a speck of evidence of a conspiracy, and even the one tiny speck of evidence that there was even wrongdoing requires that you ignore the 20-year-veteran referees best recollections.

Just messing with you, of course.  Purple Drazi need no evidence that green Drazi bad.

[grumbler]

If I was Robert Kraft I think I would handle it.

If you were Kraft, you wouldn't be getting fined personally. 

But the Pats know they were bending the rules to get an edge. I think it is charming they did so in such a traditional way but when you get caught you have to pay the piper.

There is no evidence whatever that they bent any rules regarding football inflation, and plenty of evidence that they didn't (even the Wells report conceded that McNally's action in this game were unique).  Whatever "traditional" bending of the rules occurred took less than 100 seconds.  I can't think of any traditional bending of the rules that  could be accomplished that quickly.

But, even if the McNally somehow managed, in 100 seconds, to alter the footballs in some way that actually gave the Patriots an advantage, I don't see how that translates into a $2 million fine for Tom Brady.  there is literally not a shred of evidence connnecting Brady to McNally, other than that Brady signed some autographs for McNally (just like he did for any patriot employee who asked) last fall.

[derspiess]

I got trained on the Surface Pro 3's and the new still shot interface yesterday.  They are also going to beta test video during the pre-season. Also I may travel to Tampa, San Francisco and Denver this season

[MadBurgerMaker]

I got trained on the Surface Pro 3's and the new still shot interface yesterday.  They are also going to beta test video during the pre-season. Also I may travel to Tampa, San Francisco and Denver this season

So this is a full time gig now? 

[derspiess]

Nah.  Just some early training plus I will travel for 3 games.