NCAA Basketball 2014-2015 (This may help ease the pain)

Started by PDH, November 02, 2014, 10:14:32 PM

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derspiess

#285
March 23, 2015, 02:29:19 PM
Quote from: Berkut on March 23, 2015, 02:22:14 PM
My son has already stated that if Arizona makes it to the Final Four we have to go to Indy to watch them.

I asked him how he was planning to pay for his ticket...he kind got this blank look...

:D  My brother and I went there in 2010 when WVU lost to Duke in the Final Four.  Indy is a great town for the venue, but Lucas Oil Stadium is just too big to watch a basketball game if you're in the upper level.  And they do sell every damned seat in that stadium.  We did some horse trading between games to get better seats, but we paid a bit of a premium.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

jimmy olsen

#286
March 25, 2015, 05:13:43 AM
Izzo's a boss

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tom-izzo-is-the-best-coach-in-modern-ncaa-tournament-history-by-far/
Quote
Izzo's performance is almost seven standard deviations above average,
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

derspiess

#287
March 25, 2015, 08:52:48 AM
But everyone knew that. 
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Berkut

#288
March 25, 2015, 09:39:52 AM
That is kind of cool. However, it is one of those stats that depends on the fact that he performs above his seed consistently. Which then makes you wonder why, if he is so good, he is seeded so low all the time - in other words, is it amazing that he plays above his seed so much, or does one wonder why his team under-performs before the tournament, resulting in poorer seeds than their quality really demands?

I am just thinking out loud - at the end of the day, we all know Izzo is one of the very best coaches in college basketball, no matter how you want to measure it.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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derspiess

#289
March 25, 2015, 09:44:29 AM
Well, they can't (or IMO shouldn't) seed you based upon how well you performed in past NCAA tournaments.  They need to look at your body of work for that season plus conference tournament.  If he happens to do well in the NCAA tourney, great-- but other teams that have a better resume shouldn't have to be seeded below him.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Berkut

#290
March 25, 2015, 10:02:42 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 25, 2015, 09:44:29 AM
Well, they can't (or IMO shouldn't) seed you based upon how well you performed in past NCAA tournaments.  They need to look at your body of work for that season plus conference tournament.  If he happens to do well in the NCAA tourney, great-- but other teams that have a better resume shouldn't have to be seeded below him.

No question - what I am saying is that if he performs much better in the tournament than his seed, consistently, then is it because

1. He is such an amazing tourney coach that he takes guys who deserve to be 7 sees and makes them win like they are 3 seeds, or
2. He is such a poor regular season coach that he takes guys who ought to perform well enough to get a 2 seed and they end up with 7 seeds instead.

His "expected" wins over his career is 30.5 over 17 years. So that is something like 1.8 wins/year, which means his average seed is somewhere in the 3-4ish range. Compare that to someone who has an overall excellent results across basketball like Coach K*, who over 30 years averages an expected 2.7 wins per year, which means he averages a 1-2 seed.

It is great that Izzo gets 4 seeds and plays them like 2 seeds...but is that really better than getting 2 seeds and playing them like 2 seeds?

Stats like this almost rely on you getting middling starting points to have an exceptional result. The Dukes of the world *can't* really exceed expectations, no matter how good their coaches are, because the expectations start out really high. Coach K is listed 20th on this chart, because every year he is a top seed, and plays to that top seed. But you can only go down when you start at the top.

*Note: Please do not confuse my using Coach K as an example as an endorsement of him or Duke, both of which are a blight and cancer upon college basketball, America, and Jesus.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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Berkut

#291
March 25, 2015, 10:04:30 AM
Point of comparison:

Sean Miller has the highest winning percentage in games where he is the higher seed of any active coach with at least ten games in the tournament ranked as the higher seed. He is 10-1 career, with only last years loss to Wisconsin (1 losing to 2) as the exception.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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derspiess

#292
March 25, 2015, 10:15:46 AM
I think he's a good regular season coach but an excellent NCAA tournament coach.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Berkut

#293
March 25, 2015, 10:19:22 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 25, 2015, 10:15:46 AM
I think he's a good regular season coach but an excellent NCAA tournament coach.

Yeah, but that is such a boring explanation...:P
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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derspiess

#294
March 25, 2015, 10:25:31 AM
FWIW Xavier fans are still bitching about how the program has suffered since Miller left for Arizona.  Granted, he did improve on his predecessor Matta's work and brought the program to unprecedented success.  But Chris Mack has taken them to the NCAA tournament each year since Miller left and that includes three Sweet 16 appearances.  Just spoiled fans, I guess.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Admiral Yi

#295
March 25, 2015, 10:29:20 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 25, 2015, 10:15:46 AM
I think he's a good regular season coach but an excellent NCAA tournament coach.

Maybe he's very good at scouting.

crazy canuck

#296
March 25, 2015, 10:45:43 AM
Quote from: Berkut on March 25, 2015, 10:02:42 AM
Quote from: derspiess on March 25, 2015, 09:44:29 AM
Well, they can't (or IMO shouldn't) seed you based upon how well you performed in past NCAA tournaments.  They need to look at your body of work for that season plus conference tournament.  If he happens to do well in the NCAA tourney, great-- but other teams that have a better resume shouldn't have to be seeded below him.

No question - what I am saying is that if he performs much better in the tournament than his seed, consistently, then is it because

1. He is such an amazing tourney coach that he takes guys who deserve to be 7 sees and makes them win like they are 3 seeds, or
2. He is such a poor regular season coach that he takes guys who ought to perform well enough to get a 2 seed and they end up with 7 seeds instead.

His "expected" wins over his career is 30.5 over 17 years. So that is something like 1.8 wins/year, which means his average seed is somewhere in the 3-4ish range. Compare that to someone who has an overall excellent results across basketball like Coach K*, who over 30 years averages an expected 2.7 wins per year, which means he averages a 1-2 seed.

It is great that Izzo gets 4 seeds and plays them like 2 seeds...but is that really better than getting 2 seeds and playing them like 2 seeds?

Stats like this almost rely on you getting middling starting points to have an exceptional result. The Dukes of the world *can't* really exceed expectations, no matter how good their coaches are, because the expectations start out really high. Coach K is listed 20th on this chart, because every year he is a top seed, and plays to that top seed. But you can only go down when you start at the top.

*Note: Please do not confuse my using Coach K as an example as an endorsement of him or Duke, both of which are a blight and cancer upon college basketball, America, and Jesus.

The explanation which is consistent with Izzo being a great coach in both the regular season and tournament is that his teams consistently improve throughout the year so that by the time they reach the tournament they are outplaying teams that were better than them during the season.  It takes a special kind of coach to be both a teacher of the game (ie a great practice coach) and a great coach during games.  Those require different skill sets and it appears Izzo has both sets of skills.

Berkut

#297
March 25, 2015, 11:43:49 AM
If that is the case CC, then presumably MSU teams would perform better in February than they do in December and January, right?

But I don't think that is the case - the bitch I hear from MSU fans is that they do great in December, then drop off at the tail end of the regular season. Maybe that isn't actually true though, I am only going by the perception.
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frunk

#298
March 25, 2015, 11:57:25 AM
Supposedly he likes to schedule tougher than normal non-conference games.  If that's true it could be that the seeding system doesn't give enough weight to the extra measure of difficulty involved.

crazy canuck

#299
March 25, 2015, 02:25:21 PM
Quote from: Berkut on March 25, 2015, 11:43:49 AM
If that is the case CC, then presumably MSU teams would perform better in February than they do in December and January, right?

I don't think so.  In my experience the sort of improvement we are talking about is not linear or evenly distributed over time. 
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