China's Unquenchable Thirst

[jimmy olsen]

For Blood!

Resource wars, straight out of the end game of Civilization! Sid Meirs is a prophet!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericrmeyer/2014/10/28/chinas-grand-water-plan/

Forbes Asia 10/28/2014 @ 1:12오전 8,796 views

Eric Meyer  Contributor
I write about Xinjiang, Tibet and the Chinese economy. 
Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.

China's Grand Water Plan


Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces last summer saw the birth of the Xiluodu, Xiangjia and Nuozhadu dams. The dams are respectively the 2nd, 3rd and 4th largest in China, behind the massive Three Gorges Dam. Together, the new dams will generate the equivalent output of 26 nuclear, or half of France's nuclear energy production.

Furthermore, work began discreetly last week at another giant dam in Sichuan Province: Lianghekou, with a future capacity of three gigawatts. It is one of three projects planned to harness the Yalong River, one of three tributaries of the Jinsha, or upper Yangtze River.

The other tributaries, the Min and the Dadu are to receive their own dams, to be connected at the South-North water diversion project – a plan initially tagged at 60 billion dollars, but that is likely to at least cost triple that upon completion by 2050.

According to various authors, including Michael Buckley, plans are also emerging to streamline other waterways of the Himalayan region that flow downwards through Southeast Asia: the Yarlung Zampo (or Brahmaputra), the Lancang (or Mekong) and the Nu (or Salween).

This megaproject is called the "Yellow River Corridor." Its aim is to revive what is, from a hydrological perspective, a severely depleted waterway. By 2030, China plans to pump 30-35% of these Himalayan waters, or 150 to 200 billion cubic meters through the newly created system.


Not all of that water is earmarked for the Yellow River and East China. According to Buckley, up to 50% should flow northwards to the Tarim Basin in China's far-west Xinjiang region, to be used for mining and, above all, extracting shale gas. China is the largest owner of underground shale gas, but it can't yet reach it, for want of the water needed to fracture the rocks trapping it. Therefore, if it successfully implements its Western water program, China could be hitting three birds with one stone: solving its water demand, its energy demand and reducing its dependency on coal, which today accounts for 70% of its energy supply.

This scheme is not China's only one, though, concerning water sourcing. Another of Beijing's dreams is to import large volumes of Russian water from Lake Baikal (the largest in the world) by pipeline.

All these efforts reveal China's unquenchable thirst. Its industry alone requires 139 cubic meters of water per year, and it wastes ten times the world average. Water Resources Group, an international think tank, predicts that by 2030, this demand will climb to over 300 billion cubic meters, exceeding availability by 200 billion cubic meters. Such a perspective explains China's aggressive and systematic effort to secure all available water resources.

But one can see right away the weaknesses of such an ambitious water plan, which has never been tried on such a scale. Potentially victimized countries such as Vietnam or India may disagree with this plan, fraught as it is with obvious liabilities for their societies. In India's case, the loss would not be only economic, but also religious: to Indians, the Brahmaputra is a sacred river. China's control of Himalayan water, therefore, has the potential to become the core of future conflicts.

Besides, new technologies are emerging that make China's grand water plans less attractive. For example, prices for desalinating water are falling sharply. In 2011, Tianjin city earmarked $4 billion to build a desalination plant based on Israeli technology. But three years later, Beijing paid just $1.1 to begin work on a similar plant in Caofeidian, a few dozen kilometers south of Tianjin. That plant, built with the Norwegian firm Aqualyng, will desalinate a million tons of seawater a day, or one third of the capital's needs, beginning in 2019. Wang Xiaoshui, the project's CEO, plans to sell the water at an average price of 8 yuan ($1.30) per cubic meter, double the current price. "But by then," he says, "overall prices will have gone up as well, making the water competitively priced."

Price hikes are coming indeed. A national water quality action plan was announced last June by Li Ganjie, vice minister of environment protection, endowed with 320 billion dollars. Li revealed a projected gradual price rise towards reproduction costs. A quota system was to be introduced in Beijing by 2015, along with penalties in case of failure to abide. The plan aims a 20% cut in consumption within a year. Nationally, it wants to stabilize consumption at 700 billion cubic meters per year, from today's 610 billion (of which China is 50 billion short). The keystone would be a stock-exchange for using rights, and much heavier penalties to big emitters of industrial effluents: "it will take an at least 30% cut of such effluents, to see a significant rise in water quality", states Li's ministry.

Price hikes are indeed coming. A national water quality action plan was announced last June by Li Ganjie, vice minister of environmental protection, endowed with $320 billion. Li revealed a projected gradual price rise to recoup production costs. A quota system is to be introduced in Beijing by 2015, along with penalties for violators. The plan aims to cut water consumption by 20% within a year. Nationally, it wants to stabilize consumption at 700 billion cubic meters per year, down from today's 610 billion cubic meters (China currently faces a 50 billion cubic meter shortfall). The lynchipin of the project would be an exchange for trading water use rights, and much heavier penalties for big emitters of industrial effluents. "in order to prompt a significant improvement in water quality, argues Li's ministry, such effluents will have to be cut by at least 30%".

Thus, while a 20-year-old strategy based on grabbing Himalayan waters is running ahead at full steam, China has already begun exploring alternative, less harmful means. It has also started questioning its consumption patterns, which is in China is very novel

behavior. Qiu Baoxing, vice minister for urban-rural integration, caused a shock in the media last February, when he denounced the South-North water diversion program as inappropriate. "The project is not viable in the long term, and is not suited to its goal. It cannot obviate China's need to revise its consumption patterns."  Whatever the outcome, Scott Moore, a fellow at the Council On Foreign Relations in New York, predicts that the South-North water diversion project will be completed, including its Western leg – the most challenging and most contested one. China has the political, material and technical means, he adds, to solve any unforeseen problems that may arise. Only after 20 years will China – and the world – discover whether the project's benefits outweigh its costs.

[Eddie Teach]

According to various authors, including Michael Buckley,

[garbon]

Two paragraphs near the end say basically the same thing. Was one meant to be scrubbed away in final version?

[Tonitrus]

It seems a trend that when all the editors for print newspapers were fired, no one put much thought into hiring editors for online news articles.

[Syt]

Sid Meirs

Never heard of him.

[The Brain]

All these efforts reveal China's unquenchable thirst. Its industry alone requires 139 cubic meters of water per year,

That's a lot of water!

[Eddie Teach]

And somehow they expect demand to shoot up 2 billion times as much by 2030. I am skeptical.