Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[DontSayBanana]

  You can fire up the sheep a lot easier than you can douse them.

Siegy would say you can lead a sheep goat to water, but you can't make him swim.

FTFY.

[mongers]

I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)

If Russia's to do something it's likely Sunday/Monday morning?

[Hansmeister]

How many divisions are headquartered at Benning? I saw a shitload of tanks there and it's an infantry base. It was many hundreds of them at least.

None.  There is one armored BDE. As well as the armor school house.

[Hansmeister]

If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.  If they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Ukraine has surrounded the two largest Russian strongholds and unless Russia intervenes more directly it won't be long before the resistance will mostly collapse and Russia will look weak.  At the same time due to the positioning of the Ukrainian forces in order to surround the rebels their position is extremely exposed in case of a Russian attack.  I would expect heavy Ukrainian losses in the early phase before they can stabilize the front about 50-100 kilometers west of donetz. However, Russia's forces are too small and weak to push beyond that front and would be involved in a slow, grinding war with Ukraine that they have little hope of winning in the long term (ukraine's motivation to resist will be stronger than Russia's motivation to fight).

[Sheilbh]

I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)

I don't think he'll accept being defeated by Ukraine, which is how it'll seem.

There are also reports that he's fired all the people who warned him/were negative about this whole thing.

Add in the stories about Lavrov saying there's an impending humanitarian disaster in Donetsk and it seems more likely than not.

[mongers]

I think it's do or die for Putin now. (at least from his perspective)

I don't think he'll accept being defeated by Ukraine, which is how it'll seem.

There are also reports that he's fired all the people who warned him/were negative about this whole thing.

Add in the stories about Lavrov saying there's an impending humanitarian disaster in Donetsk and it seems more likely than not.

Yes, I'm tilting towards tanks rolling, and soon.

[Syt]

If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.

Is there a possibility of a presidential decree extending the service period for the draftees because of "national crisis?"

If they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Agreed, unless Putin is stupid enough to start a campaign across soggy/muddy terrain in Autumn.

[Siege]

Got not comments.
I am not sure how much Putin values his manpower.
He probably knows his manpower generation rate. I don't.

I know Israel got 50k a year.
Russia could potentially have 5m a year, though I doubt they have the economic power to sustain such an standing army.

[Hansmeister]

If Russia is going to invade they will have to do it in the next four weeks before they have to release the draftees and rotate new units into position.

Is there a possibility of a presidential decree extending the service period for the draftees because of "national crisis?"

If they don't attack by early September then Ukraine is probably safe until spring.

Agreed, unless Putin is stupid enough to start a campaign across soggy/muddy terrain in Autumn.

Extending the draft period beyond the 12 months would be extremely unpopular, to say the least. If they were actively engaged in Ukraine it would be possible to garner public support for it, but if they're just sitting on the border waiting the political pressure would be too intense to keep holding them.

[Razgovory]

Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.

[The Brain]

Manchukuo.

[Sheilbh]

Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.

My guess now (since the Malaysian Air flight) is that he's improvising. I also don't think he'll tolerate being 'beaten' by Ukraine. If that's true, and I've no idea, then it seems a dangerous combo.

[KRonn]

Honestly I don't know what Putin's end game is anymore.  I figured he would have done his thing months ago.  I wonder if the Russian volunteers aren't actually his idea, but some of his underlings trying to to please Putin or force him to invade or something.

My guess now (since the Malaysian Air flight) is that he's improvising. I also don't think he'll tolerate being 'beaten' by Ukraine. If that's true, and I've no idea, then it seems a dangerous combo.

My feeling is that Putin is nastily stuck between two vises of his own making. He's pretty badly stuck now. He can't afford to lose in Ukraine as it would be a huge loss of face, unless a face saving measure could be created but he's passed that up before. There's also his quest for territory for rebuilding Russia, which is his main motivation. So if the Ukrainian military continues to defeat the Russian operatives locals then he'll want to move in under the original guise of safeguarding the local Russian population and that line of propaganda.

However, the other side of the vise he's caught between is the idea that Ukraine isn't going to go quietly as Crimea did. Russian forces will be heavily engaged in fighting Ukrainian forces which will be a mess for him, even if he wins, which is most likely.  But he may push the West into creating real sanctions, such as the US finally deciding to more strongly develop natural gas with the idea of becoming the supplier for Europe in place of Russia. Russia can't afford that. Or there may be other energy measures which the West or US may put in place for the shorter term, since developing natural gas supplies to supply Europe would take at least a couple or few years to get going. But the long term energy strategy could be a problem for Putin if he overplays his hand.

[Tamas]

One thing I have been thinking about: surely the main reason behind lacklustre western sanctions is the economic interests of the politicians involved. But also... do they (and we) REALLY want an economic collapse in Russia?

As sweet as it would be to punish Putin and his supporters for destabilising the world, it would mean a volatile and unpredictable political situation in an already pretty radicalised power with thousands of nuclear warheads.

[CountDeMoney]

Well, Exxon Mobil just let everybody know this morning what they think about sanctions:  they don't increase shareholder value.