Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[mongers]

The fact that they haven't done anything with that money tells me our ruling classes are expecting to return to business as usual with the current Russian ruling class.

I don't agree, I think it more reflects our structural weakness. It would be risky and in an increasingly multi-polar world where we're not dominant economies, I think those risks are serious.

I find that more defensible than the EU in 2024 spending more money importing Russian hydrocarbons than it gave to Ukraine. Again I get the economic hit but I think that's more directly hurting Ukraine and funding Russia than not expropriating seized, but inaccessible (and decreasing in value) assets.

And the UK, where's some of 'our' kerosene coming from? 

[Sheilbh]

No doubt - but the stats were for the EU.

And, also, the UK has never really bought much energy from Russia. Our very close relationships with various Gulf autocracies (like Qatar, supplier of last resort) are designed exactly to avoid Russia. I wouldn't put it past the British state but it would be an odd pivot at this point.

Edit: A bit like Italy actually in that approach.

[mongers]

No doubt - but the stats were for the EU.

And, also, the UK has never really bought much energy from Russia. Our very close relationships with various Gulf autocracies (like Qatar, supplier of last resort) are designed exactly to avoid Russia. I wouldn't put it past the British state but it would be an odd pivot at this point.

Edit: A bit like Italy actually in that approach.

Last stat I saw was something like 20% of UK jet fuel was from indirect Russian oil and our aviation  market is the 3rd or 4th biggest in the world, so not small potatoes.

[Sheilbh]

So last stat I saw was one in twenty so that feels high and there's no doubt that's true. But it's the refining loophole where we're buying oil refined in India or China (who aren't sanctioning Russia) - and often we're a little further down the chain and it's via Rotterdam.

The EU stay is so striking because it's the non-sanctioned formal trade. There is no loophole. Europe is still the largest market for Russian pipeline and LNG. In 2024 to the sum of more than €20 billion, while actual aid to Ukraine was at about €19 billion. If we roll in the loophole refined products it would be even higher - India is now Europe's largest supplier of oil, overtaking Saudi.

The EU target to fully transition from Russian gas is by the end of 2027. I'd note that a new Russia-China pipeline is scheduled to open in 2027 and another one was agreed last month for 2029. So in the time for our transition it may well be the case that Russia has also been able to transition - and I could be wrong but it doesn't strike me as impossible that Russia may be in a position to turn off the pipes to Europe before that transition is complete.

I don't doubt for a second the sincerity of all the leaders strongly supporting Ukraine (though Hungary and Slovakia are big Russian gas importers and not supporters of Ukraine). But I think it's one of the areas where our rhetoric has outpaced what we're actually willing to do (I feel the same about "security guarantees" and a few other areas and I certainly think Ukraine - and also the US - are noting these gaps).

[Josquius]

It is bad. But iirc isn't there a max price set on Russian oil and gas which is below their (higher than others) cost to produce?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It is bad. But iirc isn't there a max price set on Russian oil and gas which is below their (higher than others) cost to produce?

Correct. And occasionally is lowered iirc.
But of course the eu should have stopped importing the moment sanctions started. You don't buy and sell to a country stating that it desires to destroy you.

[Sheilbh]

It is bad. But iirc isn't there a max price set on Russian oil and gas which is below their (higher than others) cost to produce?

Yeah there's a price cap it is, at times, below the production and transportation cost for some of the companies. So it hits Gazprom's profits and tax revenue.

I just think it's always worth bearing in mind. Expropriating Russian financial assets is basically not legal under international law. It's risky for not just other types of assets in Europe, but also European assets all over the world if unilateral sanctions can have that result. And I don't think it's for nothing that the major opposition comes from Eurozone states who have flagged big concerns about the impact on the ECB/Eurozone while the most gung ho are outside the Euro.

So people are calling that while we've still not done the most basic thing of no longer buying Russian gas. In fact, 2024 and most of 2025 have seen increases in the amount (if not necessarily value) of Russian gas bought by EU countries. I'd add that the goal is to phase out by the end of 2027 - however I think there is still no actual plan from the Commission on how to do that that's been published. There's very strong divides and planned publications have been cancelled. Having said all that September 2025 has seen the lowest volume of European imports of Russian gas in two years - but that's because of Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and not because of active European policy.

Again I think it's a point of the gap between rhetoric and what's happening. We're talking about unprecedented, illegal and risky moves in the financial markets when we're spending more money buying Russian gas than we give to Ukraine. I think the level of rhetoric and commitments being made by European politicians absolutely suggests we should be in the realm of considering the unprecedented - but there's a huge amount of more "basic" actions we're not taking.

I'd also add in things worth keeping in mind that despite China and Russia's "friendship without limits" China is absolutely not paying over the odds for Russian gas. While they're increasing pipeline capacity and buying more Russian gas - they are doing it at the cheapest possible price.

[Josquius]

Apparently quite a petrol crisis building in Russia with petrol stations in various regions unable to get any supplies.

[Tamas]

Apparently quite a petrol crisis building in Russia with petrol stations in various regions unable to get any supplies.

This Russian exile guy I used to watch on Youtube, he mentioned a year or two ago when Ukraine started hitting refineries that people don't realise what a good strategy this is, that he (allegedly) worked in that industry in Russia, and the country has few (compared to size) refineries which are also quite obsolete.

The Russians do seem hell-bent on escalating tensions and chaos, which actually I am reading as things turning worse on their home front (I always remember how the leadership of Austria-Hungary were fully aware in 1914 that they were sitting on a powder keg, but that pushed them toward taking the risk of war with Serbia, not against it):

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/23/secret-service-new-york-network

[Tamas]

I guess now that he has talked to Zelensky, we are fine until his next Putin meeting:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/23/trump-ukraine-land-lost-russia-nato-oil-imports-un-speech

[Tonitrus]

And I'll add, when I say "we", don't feel like ya'll need to ask the opinions of us Yanks.  Splash the zeroes. 

Trump just endorsed it. 

[Zoupa]

Nothing Trump says really matters. TACO.

[Legbiter]

Trump just endorsed it. 

 

[Norgy]

That UN speech was so confusing, I sort of felt Tylenol-based autism creeping in.
 

[mongers]

That UN speech was so confusing, I sort of felt Tylenol-based autism creeping in.

Who'd have though trump would come out supporting Austrian Irredentists.