Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, it certainly follows the predictions that Russian attacks on NATO would be probing to undermine the faith in the collective response of NATO (and therefore its reason to exist); but minor enough that it doesn't cost Putin much to abandon or deny its purpose.

It that is true, we'll continue to see more such attacks probing NATO unity.

The Russian hope, of course, is that major NATO partners (primarily the US, but even the larger EU nations) end up going "it's not worth it for us to respond to this, you're on your own."

Although if that's the case, I wouldn't start probing with Poland.

Of all the states in Europe, Poland is armed and re-arming and recruiting a far bigger military at speed. If there's one country ready and willing I think it's them

True. I would fancy Polands chances vs Russia even sans nato.
It is an unusual choice rather than the baltics.
I guess Russia is making a point that this is very deliberate rather than something that can be explained away as accidental?

I think it's actually the perfect choice from the Russian perspective. Poland is the easiest country for the other NATO nations to say, or use as an excuse, that it is well able to defend itself and so no intervention is required.

Also, the Baltic states have NATO troops stationed within those countries and so any probing of the Baltic states would necessarily engage NATO forces.

This was a test to see if NATO assets would be used to defend Poland.   And that is why I said at the beginning of this discussion I was very happy to see that NATO forces did exactly that.

[Sheilbh]

Also there's a bit more plausible deniability from Poland catching strays than Finland.

[crazy canuck]

Good point

[Valmy]

Also there's a bit more plausible deniability from Poland catching strays than Finland.

You sure? Poland doesn't even border Russia.

[crazy canuck]

Also there's a bit more plausible deniability from Poland catching strays than Finland.

You sure? Poland doesn't even border Russia.

And?

[Valmy]

Also there's a bit more plausible deniability from Poland catching strays than Finland.

You sure? Poland doesn't even border Russia.

And?

I just figured "accidentally" hitting Finland just a few miles from St. Petersburg had more plausible deniability than sending drones hundreds of miles across another country to "accidentally" hit Poland.

[crazy canuck]

Also there's a bit more plausible deniability from Poland catching strays than Finland.

You sure? Poland doesn't even border Russia.

And?

I just figured "accidentally" hitting Finland just a few miles from St. Petersburg had more plausible deniability than sending drones hundreds of miles across another country to "accidentally" hit Poland.

Poland borders Ukraine.  That is why there is plausible deniability - "we were targeting the thing just across the border, honest"

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Poland borders Ukraine.  That is why there is plausible deniability - "we were targeting the thing just across the border, honest"

Additionally, Russia has been abusing Belarusian neutrality the whole war, which is why Belarus got sucked into the international sanctions along with Russia.

[grumbler]

According to Ward Carrol, a fighter guy who's pretty well-connected, almost all of the 18 drones fired into Poland were decoys. That supports a misprogramming cause rather than a deliberate attack.  The 18 drones would have been programmed and launched by one unit.

[crazy canuck]

The type of drone has been identified for at least a day. And while that type of drone is often used as a decoy, they are not only decoys.  They can also be used to carry explosives and constant equipment leading other experts to suggest that they are the ideal asset to use to probe Polish air defenses, using the cover of a attack against Ukraine, which, of course is exactly what happened.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Is this Europe's wake up call?

[HVC]

Is this Europe's wake up call?

They like the snooze button too much

[crazy canuck]

Is this Europe's wake up call?

The American withdrawal from ally to whatever it is they are now was the wake up call

[Jacob]

Europe has received the wake up call, and it has even woken up. The problem is that after waking up Europe has realized it is terribly out of shape due to a long term sedentary lifestyle.

[crazy canuck]

That's a good way of putting it