Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Josquius]

As soon as the Ukrainian strikes on the Russian bombers there was this huge wave of posts about how Ukraine had literally "poked the bear" and now the gloves were coming off.  Forgive me, but I have trouble imagining that Putin has been holding back, three years into his Special Military Operation.

That is the Z version of the "Russia is going to collapse any minute" thing. Now Russia is going to REALLY get mad in send in all the forces they have been holding in reserve!!

Any minute now!

To be fair they are holding forces in reserve.
Lots of reports that they're sending a chunk of what they're manufacturing to units away from the front, along nato borders. There seems to be an idea the brand new tanks will just be wasted in Ukraine as a drone will blow them up in seconds.
....
Which is accurate and if they did send them in would anyone notice?

[grumbler]

So I still enjoy following X/Twitter - not because it's a great news source, but it's a good source of some of the narratives out there.

As soon as the Ukrainian strikes on the Russian bombers there was this huge wave of posts about how Ukraine had literally "poked the bear" and now the gloves were coming off.  Forgive me, but I have trouble imagining that Putin has been holding back, three years into his Special Military Operation.

That being said - while I fully support this Ukrainian operation, it does open the door to what unconventional warfare in the decades to come is going to look like.  Much as how 9/11 changed the world of modern airfare, is this going to change modern shipping?

It doesn't "open the door" because the door was already open. It may help some people understand that the door is open. These autonomous operations just exploit existing technology that others have been planning to exploit for years. They are evolutionary, not revolutionary.

[crazy canuck]

So I still enjoy following X/Twitter - not because it's a great news source, but it's a good source of some of the narratives out there.

As soon as the Ukrainian strikes on the Russian bombers there was this huge wave of posts about how Ukraine had literally "poked the bear" and now the gloves were coming off.  Forgive me, but I have trouble imagining that Putin has been holding back, three years into his Special Military Operation.

That being said - while I fully support this Ukrainian operation, it does open the door to what unconventional warfare in the decades to come is going to look like.  Much as how 9/11 changed the world of modern airfare, is this going to change modern shipping?

It doesn't "open the door" because the door was already open. It may help some people understand that the door is open. These autonomous operations just exploit existing technology that others have been planning to exploit for years. They are evolutionary, not revolutionary.

Yeah, the threat has been known for some time.  The success of this attack puts more urgency on finding an effective countermeasure.

Some sobering information about the vulnerability:

American commanders increasingly realize that forces stateside are just as exposed. Gen. Gregory M. Guillot, the head of Northern Command, told Congress in February that there were some 350 detections of drone overflights above 100 military installations in the United States last year. Those small drones appeared to be more of a nuisance than a threat, but Spider's Web exposed the risk of not taking them seriously.

The Federal Aviation Administration has licensed more than a million drones in the United States. Most fly by the rules, but sightings of drones making illegal flights are on the rise. The F.A.A. reports there are now 100 drone sightings around airports each month, despite federal law that requires them to avoid flying near airports in controlled airspace without authorization.

[Valmy]

To be fair they are holding forces in reserve.

To be fair they are also collapsing.

But neither of these issues is going to matter in this current conflict. Their reserves, such as they are, cannot be deployed to decisively decide the war and they are not going to collapse fast enough for that to lead to a Ukraine victory.

[Barrister]

Grumbles and CC - you guys have the amazing ability to make to try and sound like you're disagreeing with what I said when you are agreeing with what I said.

Fuck I hate Languish at times.

[Grey Fox]

 

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

BlueSky thread with a few nice BDA photos of the Ukrainian raid.  All those dead Bears probably makes RFK Jr. hard.

[crazy canuck]

Grumbles and CC - you guys have the amazing ability to make to try and sound like you're disagreeing with what I said when you are agreeing with what I said.

Fuck I hate Languish at times.

I am sorry that I only sound like I am disagreeing with you.

[Josquius]

Some of the drones were smuggled in the tops of portable luxury cabins right under the solar panels.
I like to imagine this was doubly enraging. Death by woke.

[Jacob]

The Netherlands announce a 400 million Euro maritime military aid package for Ukraine:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/04/netherlands-announces-new-maritime-security-support-package-for-ukraine-worth-456-million/

Netherlands announces new maritime security support package for Ukraine worth $456 million

The package will consist of over 100 naval vessels, including ships, patrol boats, transport boats, interceptors, special operations vessels, and 50 maritime drones, according to Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans

...

The Dutch defense minister linked the assistance to escalating Russian maritime threats. "This is very important because we see that Russian threats, both in the Black Sea and around Kherson, are growing," Brekelmans stated. "It is very important for Ukraine to protect itself from this."

The Netherlands positioned the maritime aid within broader strategic objectives of supporting Ukraine's shipping freedom and preserving commercial sea routes, Brekelmans explained.

[Zoupa]

So I still enjoy following X/Twitter - not because it's a great news source, but it's a good source of some of the narratives out there.

As soon as the Ukrainian strikes on the Russian bombers there was this huge wave of posts about how Ukraine had literally "poked the bear" and now the gloves were coming off.  Forgive me, but I have trouble imagining that Putin has been holding back, three years into his Special Military Operation.

That being said - while I fully support this Ukrainian operation, it does open the door to what unconventional warfare in the decades to come is going to look like.  Much as how 9/11 changed the world of modern airfare, is this going to change modern shipping?

I think nothing will change regarding shipping, as it'd be insanely pricy.

[Maladict]

The Netherlands announce a 400 million Euro maritime military aid package for Ukraine:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/04/netherlands-announces-new-maritime-security-support-package-for-ukraine-worth-456-million/

Netherlands announces new maritime security support package for Ukraine worth $456 million

The package will consist of over 100 naval vessels, including ships, patrol boats, transport boats, interceptors, special operations vessels, and 50 maritime drones, according to Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans

...

The Dutch defense minister linked the assistance to escalating Russian maritime threats. "This is very important because we see that Russian threats, both in the Black Sea and around Kherson, are growing," Brekelmans stated. "It is very important for Ukraine to protect itself from this."

The Netherlands positioned the maritime aid within broader strategic objectives of supporting Ukraine's shipping freedom and preserving commercial sea routes, Brekelmans explained.

I didn't know we had 100 vessels. 

[Syt]

Wiki has a breakdown, though it's Wiki, so take with grain/spoon/pillar of salt. It's definitely < 100 there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Netherlands_Navy

Though I assume some of the craft committed to will have to be built, which would certainly be welcome news to local shipyards?

[grumbler]

The Netherlands announce a 400 million Euro maritime military aid package for Ukraine:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/06/04/netherlands-announces-new-maritime-security-support-package-for-ukraine-worth-456-million/

Netherlands announces new maritime security support package for Ukraine worth $456 million

The package will consist of over 100 naval vessels, including ships, patrol boats, transport boats, interceptors, special operations vessels, and 50 maritime drones, according to Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans

...

The Dutch defense minister linked the assistance to escalating Russian maritime threats. "This is very important because we see that Russian threats, both in the Black Sea and around Kherson, are growing," Brekelmans stated. "It is very important for Ukraine to protect itself from this."

The Netherlands positioned the maritime aid within broader strategic objectives of supporting Ukraine's shipping freedom and preserving commercial sea routes, Brekelmans explained.

I didn't know we had 100 vessels. 

Well, 50 of the 100 referred to apparently are drones, so maybe not really "naval vessels."

[Tonitrus]

With that many bombers lost that's got to start putting a dent on Russias ability to wage more wars... or are those planes not that important?

Looks like a healthy hit on air component of their nuclear deterrent (more the Tu-95s than the Tu-22s), but like our bombers, are all dual nuclear/conventional use.  The apparent loss of another A-50 (AWACS plane) is also notable.  The comparison isn't precise, but think taking out a similar amount of B-52s and B-1Bs.

Probably not much that impacts the military day-to-day on the battlefield in Ukraine, but a huge dollar(ruble)/capital value loss.

As expected, actual estimates of the initial damage is trending downward from the initial euphoria.  Notably the video released of the A-50s hit...pretty clear that the they are deactivated "boneyard" relics.  Some of the other appear to look like few "retired" aircraft were included in the numbers.

But with this kind of attack, even if the actual destroyed of active aircraft is a 1/4 of the original estimate...it is still wildly successful.