Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[grumbler]

How many thousands of AGMs does the US have in its inventory?

CSIS estimated last month that the US had sent about 1/3 of its 20,000 or so Javelins to Ukraine.  Build rate right now is about 200 units a month, but is slowly ramping up to a goal of around 350 per month.

[The Brain]

To build good armed forces Russia would have to change its fundamental organizational culture, or whatever you wanna call it. I think it's very unlikely that they will do that.

[grumbler]

To build good armed forces Russia would have to change its fundamental organizational culture, or whatever you wanna call it. I think it's very unlikely that they will do that.

Yeah, the problem that face is that all of the senior officers, who would have to implement the changes, are high-level officers because they know how to be successful in the current system.  Russia isn't facing the kind of existential threat that would drive the political leadership to order that the leeches be shot.

[PDH]

It sounds like the Ukrainians did get lucky with a Armed Forces Head who really did desire a change and a focus toward a more Western model of the combat unit (more bottom-up communication, able NCOs, local commanders allowed initiative) and there was enough time since 2014 to implement at least a good deal of these changes.

There was both will to change and people able to change (and to fire those unable/unwilling).

[celedhring]

I recall one of the US advisors that went there after 2014 being interviewed and saying how the Ukrainian brass was shell-shocked and that drove them to rebuild their army structure from the bottom up - so yeah, defeat helps.

[Jacob]

Yeah, the problem that face is that all of the senior officers, who would have to implement the changes, are high-level officers because they know how to be successful in the current system.  Russia isn't facing the kind of existential threat that would drive the political leadership to order that the leeches be shot.

Interesting question, I think.

Right now, I tend to agree that it's not quite at the level of existential threat. But could it evolve to become one... or at least close enough to one for the regime that it spurs that level of change?

Or on a slightly different track, could the total national humiliation that Russia seems to be on track for serve as the same kind of impetus for fundamental change as an existential threat would?

[Sheilbh]

I think also the moral force element in Ukraine is essential. Plus since 2014 they've been fighting a war, which I think Russia has just been - in their view - causing issues/destabilising. But in that time I think it's clear Ukraine has been learning about their enemy.

[Berkut]

I could at least imagine some kind of "soft coup" in Russia that saw a younger generation come in and revamp the entire thing....

[Barrister]

I could at least imagine some kind of "soft coup" in Russia that saw a younger generation come in and revamp the entire thing....

A lot of the problems of the Russian military comes from it being a top-down kleptocracy.  Simply replacing Putin with a new, younger version does little to help revamp anything.

[DGuller]

To some extent all kleptocracy in Russia is state-sanctioned.  It really is a mafia state in the full sense of the word.  If the state realizes that it sanctioned so much theft that it endangers the health of the host organism they're leeching off of, then they'll move to adjust the allowance.  The Russian state is not completely blind to the corruption and powerless to stop it.

[frunk]

That said... I suppose there is a possible scenario where Russia goes "oopsies, my bad... let's be friends again" and over time NATO gets lulled into a false sense of security while Russia rearms with intensity.

Personally I think it's a bit unlikely, starting with Russia saying "oopsies, my bad... let's be friends again."

I think that's really unlikely unless there was some sort of regime change.

[Tamas]

Seems very clear it's now only Hungary blocking an EU-level oil embargo on Russia. Rumour is they want a lot of money to "modernise their refineries". They'll probably get it too. The CEO of the Hungarian oil company owning those has an arrest warrant out for him in Croatia, to make the whole thing even juicer.

[Barrister]

Sounds like the Azovstal holdouts have surrendered to Russia.

[Threviel]

Roflol, a conventional war between Nato and Russia will se Russia have its infrastructure vaporized by day 5 or so, giving Nato air forces free reign from day 7 or something.

Whether Ivan will have lots of unfueled and unarmed T-72s to spend his cold and hungry nights before some UAV kills him is a moot point.

[Threviel]

Sounds like the Azovstal holdouts have surrendered to Russia.

Seems to be part of a prisoner exchange.

https://twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1526249816388403201

Surprises me that the orcs care enough to have their own traded for.