Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

I think a lot of people bought into the myth of Putin playing 5D chess. I think his response to Maidan was stupid and bad for Russia, and it was done as you said because he was mad his influence peddling had collapsed in Ukraine. Nothing he has done in Ukraine since that time has actually advanced any Russian interest, and very likely has made Russia weaker. I actually pointed out at the time that just taking over pension programs in Crimea would neutralize almost any conceivable economic gain, and the sanctions and other penalties made any strategic gain from Crimea muted at best (it isn't like Russia had no other Black Sea ports.) Crimea was stupid. This new invasion was stupid squared. It is time for everyone to start to consider Putin actually isn't good at strategy while he is good at black ops and influence operations.

Yeah that's my read too.

That and that he's blinded by buying into his own quasi-religious ethno-triumphalist imperial propaganda (or he always believed in it). I can readily believe that he's doing all this to make Russia Great Again... only he's using a black & influence ops lens (i.e. there's no such thing as popular uprisings, someone manufactured Euromaidan to attack Russia) to look at the world as if it was a Paradox strategy game (which while fun and complex are nonetheless reductive).

[Barrister]

It's hard to imagine what Ukraine will be like after the war, assuming they even win it.  If Zelensky survives the war and the peace afterwards, then it's possible that he may be one of the few people idealistic enough to fight corruption.  It's a lot more pragmatic to take stuff for yourself while you can, because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

The huge question is how many of the 10 million who fled are going to want to return?

[alfred russel]

So you seem to be saying "Russia is capable of continuing to do what it had never been in danger of not doing, and nothing more." Are you actually saying anything meaningful at all? Putin isn't lusting after solidification of the status quo ante, if he was fine with that he would have left things well enough alone.

On the flip side, criticizing Putin's strategy for failing because Russia's aggregate output is badly falling further and further behind China is meaningless because Russia doesn't have the population base to do that no matter what policies are pursued.

The position I outlined for Russia/Putin is more precarious than you let on. The economy is strained by a need to play the part of a global power with a decidedly second tier economy. His power base means he has to keep the nationalists happy which isn't easy because the economy is second tier and first tier talent ends up opposing him. I certainly don't think that the Russian sphere of influence is secure: Belarus has seriously threatened spinning off, and Uzbekistan is making signs of abandoning Moscow. Armenia even went a bit western for a while despite the obvious reliance Russia vs. Azerbaijan (to its considerable detriment).

Putin didn't need to invade Ukraine, but it isn't as though he had a quiet happy kingdom before the invasion. Reducing a pro western ukraine would have solved some of his problems, internal and external.

[PDH]

https://twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1507400322829930500

Polina Ivanova
@polinaivanovva
·
25m
Replying to
@polinaivanovva
Firstly, the generals said Russia had always intended only to 'liberate' the Donbas, that was what it set out to do. It had two options: fight a war in the east, but allow Kyiv to replenish its forces, or start off by knocking out Ukrainian military capacities across the country.

Polina Ivanova
@polinaivanovva
Russia had never intended to capture Kyiv, Kharkiv and other cities, the generals said - these are not setbacks in other words, it's all part of the plan. And the plan was to distract Ukrainian forces while Russia/ Donetsk/ Luhansk made territorial gains in the east.

Now, this moving of the goalposts seem to be very good news to me.

Alright, we'll call it a draw

[Razgovory]

Hopefully Western aid for rebuilding will be given with anti-corruption strings attached.

We've played that card before, going back to the Obama Administration, and all it does is provide the GOP fodder with things like Hunter Biden's laptop.

Did you hear the news?  Hunter Biden was financing US bioweapon research in Ukraine!  The latest from the Kremlin and Tucker Carlson.

[Admiral Yi]

It is time for everyone to start to consider Putin actually isn't good at strategy while he is good at black ops and influence operations.

Agreed.  Hard to see what advantage he derived from propping up Assad.

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wAPf7trPH4

American volunteer with gloating vibe.  It really is the social media war.

[alfred russel]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wAPf7trPH4

American volunteer with gloating vibe.  It really is the social media war.

They took out 7 russian tanks and are sweeping the stragglers?

Reminds me of a letter home I was reading from one of the dudes in the Anderson's division attack on the second day of gettysburg; he said his brigade captured 50 cannon but weren't properly supported and had to fall back giving up all the captured guns.

[celedhring]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wAPf7trPH4

American volunteer with gloating vibe.  It really is the social media war.

It is weird though, we're seeing loads of combat footage, but very little "civilian" clips. I would have thought we'd see tons of clips of people sharing their experience of the war.

[Josquius]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0wAPf7trPH4

American volunteer with gloating vibe.  It really is the social media war.

It is weird though, we're seeing loads of combat footage, but very little "civilian" clips. I would have thought we'd see tons of clips of people sharing their experience of the war.

I guess those who are inclined to do this also got the hell out ASAP. Bald and bankrupt for instance.

[Jacob]

Agreed.  Hard to see what advantage he derived from propping up Assad.

Here's what I think Putin got from propping up Assad:

He scored some points on Obama re: "red lines" and he got a grateful client regime. His armed forces - official and clandestine - got exercise and were seen as successful, building up their mystique and morale. This 100% feeds into Putin's emotional need (and Russia's too, to some extent) to be seen as a "great power".

It countered a popular uprising / demand for democracy wave, which Putin sees as a threat to his way of governing and his regime. Every popular uprising that ends in tragedy is another point in the ledger for "don't try this in Russia, you know how it ends."

If the invasion of Ukraine had gone as Putin (and many others) expected - a decapitation followed by humiliating disintegration and subservience for Ukraine, with a pathetic Western response easily shrugged off by Russia - then the Syrian adventure would be seen as stepping stone for that. Basically Putin's been pulling more or less the same trick over and over again, but each time increasing his scope - Georgia, Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. Syria then would've been an intermediate step and training ground for Ukraine, basically, especially in terms of Putin's mythology (an effective and ruthless ruler with a powerful military, making strong international moves while dismissing the ineffectual concerns of the rest of the West).

[Admiral Yi]

It is weird though, we're seeing loads of combat footage, but very little "civilian" clips. I would have thought we'd see tons of clips of people sharing their experience of the war.

Earlier on I saw plenty of clips taken from high rises of Russian troops standing around, individual Ukrainians waving their flag in Russian faces, crowds shouting at Russian troops etc.  Those do seem to have dropped off in number.

[Zoupa]

There ya go:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tnwt5b/ukrainian_civilians_in_kherson_play_bayraktar_for/?ref=share&ref_source=link

Shelf should like this

[celedhring]

There ya go:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/tnwt5b/ukrainian_civilians_in_kherson_play_bayraktar_for/?ref=share&ref_source=link

Shelf should like this

They should sing Bayraktar at Eurovision. They're going to win anyway 

[Josquius]

Honestly don't rate that song. Just don't get it. The VDV one on the other hand is pure class.