Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[celedhring]

Honestly, the relationship between "exporting lots of oil/gas" = "being a shithole" is so strong that they might be better off. Few countries have managed to build decent societies off it.

You're one of the few.




Maybe? 

[crazy canuck]

Honestly, the relationship between "exporting lots of oil/gas" = "being a shithole" is so strong that they might be better off. Few countries have managed to build decent societies off it.

You're one of the few.




Maybe? 

You might want to take a closer look at what is happening politically within Alberta before you make that admission.

[HVC]

I mean Alberta is the shitiest part of Canada, so... you know


I've never actually been, so don't have first had knowledge. The only flat province I've been to is Saskatchewan.  Saskatoon is lovely, north battleford is, uhm, unique and Regina is a cesspool that no one in Saskatchewan appears to like. .

[Malthus]

I'm not that confident that having hydrocarbon wealth would be a good thing for Ukraine.  When Russia is not invading it, Ukraine's most crippling problem is the extreme corruption, and hydrocarbon wealth doesn't necessarily benefit the country if their government is corrupt. 

If Ukraine conquers corruption and its oligarchical feudalism, then I think it's going to grow rich with or without hydrocarbon wealth.  Both Russia and Ukraine have enough talent to grow rich from human capital, it's just that they squandered their potential for different reasons.

Question: assuming the war ends, and Ukraine emerges free - will the experience of the war and upheaval make the political corruption problem better or worse?

[Duque de Bragança]

To the Byzantines you mean?

To Mithridates' kingdom so the Romans afterwards, at the very least as a client kingdom (Chersonese Taurica).

[HVC]

Construction is a huge source of corruptions, that why the mob likes it. So at least in terms of non oligarch corruption you'll see a spike. Don't know if it'll last or branch out, but it'll be there.

[The Brain]

Hopefully Western aid for rebuilding will be given with anti-corruption strings attached.

[Jacob]

Question: assuming the war ends, and Ukraine emerges free - will the experience of the war and upheaval make the political corruption problem better or worse?

Yeah, that is an important question as well. Not super timely at the moment, but pretty crucial in the long term.

[DGuller]

It's hard to imagine what Ukraine will be like after the war, assuming they even win it.  If Zelensky survives the war and the peace afterwards, then it's possible that he may be one of the few people idealistic enough to fight corruption.  It's a lot more pragmatic to take stuff for yourself while you can, because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think I was clear on what I was saying Russia could achieve under Putinism, and was achieving, prior to this misadventure:
-a secure less than democratic state with entrenched current leadership

Which Putin already had 10 years ago, and has not advanced at all by anything he has done since.

-some form of domination over post soviet states outside of the Baltics / a central asian sphere of influence

He has this for every state other than Ukraine already, and had it without doing anything in Ukraine.

-a seat at the table of the most important global matters, such as the UN security council

He has this permanently as per the UN Charter.

-enough wealth to leave be able to keep the country a world nuclear superpower, a respected conventional military and arms exporter, lavish lifestyles for those with the right connections, and an acceptably well off population.

1960s era China could maintain hundreds of nuclear weapons, Russia has never come close to a state where it would be too poor to do that.

So you seem to be saying "Russia is capable of continuing to do what it had never been in danger of not doing, and nothing more." Are you actually saying anything meaningful at all? Putin isn't lusting after solidification of the status quo ante, if he was fine with that he would have left things well enough alone. He clearly wants a bigger stage, his path of economic development makes that impossible. They would be doing significantly better if they adopt more normal market economy reforms with a genuinely functional bureaucracy to dial back corruption and promote domestic development.

[OttoVonBismarck]

2014/2015 was very reactive from Russia.  The EuroMaidan protests had succeeded in removing Yanukovych from power, which angered Putin as Yanukovych was aligned with Russia, plus he didn't like the look of people in a former soviet state removing a dictator from power.  He didn't expect it to happen so I don't think there was a lot of long-term planning that went into seizing Crimea, or the Donbass.

It did somewhat succeed in keeping Ukraine from joining the West, as that is what prevented NATO from even considering Ukraine for membership.  Without the frozen conflict I don't think Ukraine would be a full NATO member, but they'd be on their way.

I think a lot of people bought into the myth of Putin playing 5D chess. I think his response to Maidan was stupid and bad for Russia, and it was done as you said because he was mad his influence peddling had collapsed in Ukraine. Nothing he has done in Ukraine since that time has actually advanced any Russian interest, and very likely has made Russia weaker. I actually pointed out at the time that just taking over pension programs in Crimea would neutralize almost any conceivable economic gain, and the sanctions and other penalties made any strategic gain from Crimea muted at best (it isn't like Russia had no other Black Sea ports.) Crimea was stupid. This new invasion was stupid squared. It is time for everyone to start to consider Putin actually isn't good at strategy while he is good at black ops and influence operations.

[Tamas]

They have elections in Hungary in ~ a week.

And there are a farly large number of Hungarians in Ukraine who Orban gave the right to vote. Basically, from what I understand - and Tamas will correct this hopefully - he gave the right to vote to Hungarians overseas who live in formerly Hungarian territory and made it very easy while making it far more difficult for diaspora Hungarians (like the young and liberal working in the rest of Europe) to vote.

I think in past elections that near Hungarian diaspora vote has gone about 95% to Orban. It'd be interesting to see if there's a shift this time.

Yeah, across-the-border voters are important for Orban, both as legit supporters and easy way to cheat votes, I suspect.

But, the election next Sunday is I think more important in this because of the awkward situation Putin left him in. He cannot adopt the pro-Ukrainian rhetoric without exposing his foreign policy of the last decade as failed. And he can't take a more openly pro-Russian stance without causing himself a lot of trouble not just with Europe but internally as well.

Once Orban has his election victory, he can feel much freer to act on this war. Whether that means aligning more fully with EU and NATO or taking a more open pro-Russian stance, we will see.

[celedhring]

They have elections in Hungary in ~ a week.

And there are a farly large number of Hungarians in Ukraine who Orban gave the right to vote. Basically, from what I understand - and Tamas will correct this hopefully - he gave the right to vote to Hungarians overseas who live in formerly Hungarian territory and made it very easy while making it far more difficult for diaspora Hungarians (like the young and liberal working in the rest of Europe) to vote.

I think in past elections that near Hungarian diaspora vote has gone about 95% to Orban. It'd be interesting to see if there's a shift this time.

Yeah, across-the-border voters are important for Orban, both as legit supporters and easy way to cheat votes, I suspect.

But, the election next Sunday is I think more important in this because of the awkward situation Putin left him in. He cannot adopt the pro-Ukrainian rhetoric without exposing his foreign policy of the last decade as failed. And he can't take a more openly pro-Russian stance without causing himself a lot of trouble not just with Europe but internally as well.

Once Orban has his election victory, he can feel much freer to act on this war. Whether that means aligning more fully with EU and NATO or taking a more open pro-Russian stance, we will see.

So the opposition has no chance? Sad.

[CountDeMoney]

Hopefully Western aid for rebuilding will be given with anti-corruption strings attached.

We've played that card before, going back to the Obama Administration, and all it does is provide the GOP fodder with things like Hunter Biden's laptop.

[The Brain]

Hopefully Western aid for rebuilding will be given with anti-corruption strings attached.

We've played that card before, going back to the Obama Administration, and all it does is provide the GOP fodder with things like Hunter Biden's laptop.

OK let me rephrase: hopefully non-US Western aid will be given with anti-corruption strings attached.