Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Looks like the Russians are moving significant military assets towards the Ukraine, and this time they seem to be trying to be a little more discreet rather than making a show of it.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ukraine-military-buildup-1.6262035

And Ukrainian politics seems to be going through a little bit of chaos with fights between Zelensky's people and Poroshenko's - that's maybe a little bit of a norm but is probably part of the context.

As I say I don't think Putin necessarily wants to take over Ukraine or the Caucus or even Belarus, but I think he wants them as societies unable to make their own decisions who are weak and divided so they rely/can't really move away from Moscow. Of course every time he does moves like this it increases the desire among a lot of Ukrainian's to move away from Russia.

I think it's similar with the Baltics and Poland - he doesn't want to invade he just wants to isolate and weaken.

[Jacob]

Oops! 

Fixed!

[DGuller]

My concern is that Putin moving on Ukraine may mean China moving on Taiwan.  If you're going to start one real war to settle a thorny long-term problem, you may as well coordinate with your buddy to start his own real war to settle his own thorny problem.  It would be hard for the West to face down either aggressor in isolation; facing them down together would seem like an impossibility.

[Jacob]

My concern is that Putin moving on Ukraine may mean China moving on Taiwan.  If you're going to start one real war to settle a thorny long-term problem, you may as well coordinate with your buddy to start his own real war to settle his own thorny problem.  It would be hard for the West to face down either aggressor in isolation; facing them down together would seem like an impossibility.

World War III: Radio-Active Superspree

[mongers]

My concern is that Putin moving on Ukraine may mean China moving on Taiwan.  If you're going to start one real war to settle a thorny long-term problem, you may as well coordinate with your buddy to start his own real war to settle his own thorny problem.  It would be hard for the West to face down either aggressor in isolation; facing them down together would seem like an impossibility.

No problem, US Navy deals with one, EU army deals with the other.

edit:
Oops, I see my error/typo.

Though looking on the bright side if this have been under Trump the US Navy would have been order to deal with the Ukraine situation and the EU/Nato left to save Taiwan.

[DGuller]

EU army would deal with Russia?  Them and what army?

[Sheilbh]

My concern is that Putin moving on Ukraine may mean China moving on Taiwan.  If you're going to start one real war to settle a thorny long-term problem, you may as well coordinate with your buddy to start his own real war to settle his own thorny problem.  It would be hard for the West to face down either aggressor in isolation; facing them down together would seem like an impossibility.

I'd add to that tens of thousands of migrants being used as objects by Putin/Lukashenko in Belarus and Serbia and Republika Srpska in Bosnia withdrawing from shared institutions setting up their own military etc (again no doubt with the green-light from Putin).

I think if you were trying to engineer a poly-crisis it would look a bit like this. The other side of this is that I don't think, based on Biden's comments, that he views Europe as a central area of American interests right now (that might shift if it affected a NATO country) - while he does view the Pacific in that way - and, at this point, the Europeans do not have a common or serious enough view on Ukrain, Belarus/Poland/Lithuania or the Balkans.

[mongers]

EU army would deal with Russia?  Them and what army?

Looked on a map of the former soviet union states, one of them Ironyistan has a pretty decent army.

[Jacob]

EU army would deal with Russia?  Them and what army?

Looked on a map of the former soviet union states, one of them Ironyistan has a pretty decent army.

I hear it always rains during weddings in Ironyistan.

[mongers]

EU army would deal with Russia?  Them and what army?

Looked on a map of the former soviet union states, one of them Ironyistan has a pretty decent army.

I hear it always rains during weddings in Ironyistan.

[Tamas]

Aren't we ignoring another possibility? That the US has made a backroom deal, green-lighting some limited Russian victory like annexing eastern Ukraine. The fact that opposition over the northern gas pipe has stopped would point toward this.

It also would be very very far from being the first example of the West talking the talk but secretly promising not to walk the walk when it comes to defending Eastern Europe.

[HVC]

Why is it the us making a deal and not European countries. It's in your backyard, not theirs.

[Jacob]

Aren't we ignoring another possibility? That the US has made a backroom deal, green-lighting some limited Russian victory like annexing eastern Ukraine. The fact that opposition over the northern gas pipe has stopped would point toward this.

It also would be very very far from being the first example of the West talking the talk but secretly promising not to walk the walk when it comes to defending Eastern Europe.

What does the US care about the Northern gas pipeline?

Not a rhetorical question, by the way. I have no idea to what extent the US does or does not care about it.

[Tamas]

IIRC one of the big ways the US hit back for the 2014 Crimea thing was making it illegal for US businesses to work on it, causing significant delays to it. I think this is now gone, although I can be wrong.

[Tamas]

Why is it the us making a deal and not European countries. It's in your backyard, not theirs.

If the US refuses (in private) to help, what does it matter what Europeans want to do?