Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[DGuller]

Why wouldn't the struggle between the forces claiming to be those of the DPR and LPR and those of the Ukrainian government be called a civil war?

For the same reason that WW2 wasn't a civil war just because Vlasov had an army fighting on the German side.

[alfred russel]

I don't think you can call it a civil war if one side wants to secede/want far-reaching autonomy, even if you ignore that the whole thing was started and directly supported by a foreign power and its military (I do not subscribe to the notion of Donbas farmers having artillery and tanks in their sheds to be used in case of a rebellion).

Yeah, that too.  Even if War in Donbas was a legitimate secession movement rather than a covert Russian invasion, it still wouldn't be called a civil war.  American Revolution wasn't a British civil war.

Was the American Civil War a civil war? 

Actually no.

What about the war between Octavian and Mark Antony?

[grumbler]

I think there are more than two options.  It's not just a choice between "LPR and DPR are sovereigns" and "LPR and DPR are Ukrainian rebels", the third option is that it's a Russian invasion dressed up as rebellion after the fact.  Considering that the "uprising" started after Russia overtly occupied Crimea, it doesn't sound like much of a conspiracy theory.  Yes, there was Ukrainian cannon fodder fighting on the Russian side, but they were directed by Russia, and backstopped by Russian army when they proved to be too inept at fighting on their own.

So, you believe that the Russian Army openly invaded Crimea but only secretly invaded the Donbas?  But that's not a conspiracy theory?

Clearly, the Russians took advantage of, and ultimately took direction of, the Ukrainian rebels.  But the war started as a Ukrainian-Ukrainian war, and there's an element of the war even today that is a civil conflict between Ukrainians.

Again, the only issue here is whether or not it is outrageous to note that there was/is a Ukrainian civil war going on.

[DGuller]

So, you believe that the Russian Army openly invaded Crimea but only secretly invaded the Donbas?  But that's not a conspiracy theory?

Okay, I misspoke about Crimea.  It was a covert invasion that was openly acknowledged only sometime later.  At the time of the invasion, and probably still by the time "rebellion" in Donbas started, the official story was that Crimea was a spontaneous uprising by the locals.

Clearly, the Russians took advantage of, and ultimately took direction of, the Ukrainian rebels.  But the war started as a Ukrainian-Ukrainian war, and there's an element of the war even today that is a civil conflict between Ukrainians.

I think what the war started as is very much debated, and it is in fact what we're debating here.  I don't think it's obvious in any way that Russian involvement started only as an intervention in an existing conflict, and that it wasn't a Russian operation from the very beginning.

[DGuller]

Here is what the Wiki says, with all the typical caveats:

April 2014: conflict begins
On 12 April, unmarked pro-Russian militants lead by FSB agent Igor Girkin seized the Donetsk city office of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and two other police offices in the oblast, although they were repelled after an assault on the general prosecutor's office and failed to take a police office in the city of Shakhtarsk.[81] Following negotiations between the militants and those in the building, the chief of the office resigned from his post.[81][82] Officers from the Berkut special police force, which had been dissolved by the government following the February revolution, took part in the seizure on the separatists' side.[83] After gaining control of the Donetsk RSA and declaring the Donetsk People's Republic, pro-Russian groups vowed to fan out and take control of strategic infrastructure across Donetsk Oblast, and demanded that public officials who wished to continue their work swear allegiance to the Republic.[84]

By 14 April, pro-Russian militants led by former GRU operatives Igor Girkin and Igor Bezler had taken control of government buildings in many other cities within the oblast, including Sloviansk, Mariupol, Horlivka, Kramatorsk, Yenakiieve, Makiivka, Druzhkivka, and Zhdanivka.[85][86][87] Following this seizure of the Donetsk RSA, the militants began to expand their control across the city. The municipal administration building was stormed and occupied by the insurgents on 16 April.[88] Further actions by the separatists resulted in the capture of the offices of the regional state television network on 27 April.[89] After capturing the broadcasting centre, the militants began to broadcast Russian television channels. On 4 May, the flag of the Donetsk People's Republic was raised over the police headquarters in Donetsk city proper.[90]

A number of interviews given in 2019–2020 by participants on the Russian side (including Girkin, Bezler, Gubarev and others) revealed that the initial idea to take control of Donbas towns was passed on to Donetsk "People's Governor" Pavel Gubarev by Sergey Glazyev, an advisor to Russian president Vladimir Putin at that time. Gubarev's team met Girkin's as it entered Ukraine from Russia, and the original plan was to capture Shakhtarsk first, as it was much closer to both the Russo-Ukrainian border and the Russian military base in Rostov-on-Don. The decision to attack Sloviansk instead was made after Girkin's group crossed the border, supposedly due to the presence of a larger group of pro-Russian activists ready to support their cause in the town. Military and financial support for the group was provided by Sergey Aksyonov and Konstantin Malofeev. Novaya Gazeta summarised the situation as "a group of poorly prepared mercenaries turning a whole region into a bloodbath" and concluded that Russia "will bear moral and political responsibility for its civilian casualties as long as its participants are not taken to court."[91]

Unmarked militants led by FSB/GRU agents started the "rebellion".  Yes, there were plenty of Ukrainians to recruit for the job, but the plan was Russian and executed by Russia.

[Jacob]

I agree with DGuller. An invasion initially using proxy mercenaries and local collaborators does not turn a conflict into a civil war.

[Zoupa]

It's also worth noting that Ukrainians never considered it a civil war and always as a war of foreign aggression. Crimea was also definitely not openly invaded by the russian army, Putin used his usual playbook of unmarked uniforms and "popular" uprising.

[DGuller]

It's also worth noting that Ukrainians never considered it a civil war and always as a war of foreign aggression.

That's my experience as well.  Before the February invasion, I asked several Ukrainians online about whether they thought invasion was likely.  They all said that they've already been fighting off an invasion for eight years.  That said, if we are to be fair, Ukrainians had just as much of a motivation to deny that Donbas War was a civil war as Russian had to paint it as a civil war.

[Razgovory]

Look, we have all had fun and learned a thing or two, but it's about time for the Russians to pack up and go home.  Fish and invaders stink after six months.

[Zoupa]

Well looks like a bunch of vatniks are running away from Crimea after Ukraine hit their base this morning...

[The Brain]

Per Wästberg, co-founder of Swedish Amnesty in 1964, has left the organization on account of the Ukraine report.

[Malthus]

That AI report also caused a small scandal in Finland. A member of board of Amnesty Finland (a well-known anti-US demagogue) talked about the "Ukrainian civil war in 2014-2022" and used a Russian propaganda website as a source.

Well, given that there was a Ukrainian Civil War from roughly 2014-2022, I'm failing to see the outrage (other than the source he cited). 

I think the outrage comes from the fact that labelling it as such obscures Russian involvement.

There is an argument to be made about the extent to which the war originally had a civil element to it, but even the most die-hard arguer would have to concede that there was precious little about the war not dictated by Moscow by 2022.

One of the major themes of the whole period is what could be called situational ethnicity. In 2014, earnest pundits were solemnly declaring that Ukraine was an inherently fractured society; some spoke Russian, were relatively recent transplants from Russia, were much more orthodox in religion and less Catholic - like the English settlement in Northern Ireland, did not consider themselves of the same nationality as the Ukrainians. These would always be an ethnic fifth column, whose legitimate grievances could be tapped into by Moscow at will. Moreover, the unfortunate experiences of the WW2 era will mean that various ethnic minorities, like Jews, will always fear Ukrainian nationalism.

What is interesting, from an anthropological point of view, is how quickly that perspective - completely reasonable sounding in 2014 - has proved untrue. By 2022, it is now clear that whatever ethnic message Moscow is selling, it is not convincing to the vast majority of Ukrainians. Their very president is a person whose first language was Russian, not Ukrainian - and he's ethnically Jewish, to boot. Linguistic ethnic-nationalism has proved a damp squib for Moscow, its claims that Ukrainian nationalists = Nazis unconvincing (except to Tankies).

The reason isn't too hard to find: the actual experience of being invaded has turned the local population against the invader. This puts the lie to the notion it is at base a civil war - at least, according to the population that matters (that is, locals who could potentially be induced to fight against the Ukrainian government), it is a foreign invasion, and locals aiding the Russians are traitors and sell-outs.

I think this is purely the result of Russian failure to sell their position successfully, and Ukrainian success at doing so. The Russians have been unable to sell their POV beyond the territories they  militarily control, and are struggling with resistance even within those territories.

[Legbiter]

Well looks like a bunch of vatniks are running away from Crimea after Ukraine hit their base this morning...

Could just have been a careless smoker...

[Josquius]

Funny how often Russia blames accidental mishaps with storage for their shit going boom.
They really want the world to know they're incompetent don't they.

[jimmy olsen]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1557305676967313408

"A Ukrainian government official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that an airfield explosion in occupied Crimea was the work of Ukrainian special forces