Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

Seems another big refinery was blown up overnight in Russia.   

[Josquius]

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/22/7447690/index.amp

The US is apparently denying it told Ukraine to stop bombing refineries.
Very curious as the original source was FT, generally the most reliable of papers.

[Solmyr]

[link=msg=1436663 date=1711150708]

IS has claimed the attack.

Odd to say but that's a relief. Wouldn't have put it past them to just let the shit fly and Ukraine get the blame - especially with the links to Palestine/Israel.

FSB is saying that the attackers were trying to flee towards Ukraine where they had "appropriate connections", so the blame game is still on.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

[link=msg=1436663 date=1711150708]

IS has claimed the attack.

Odd to say but that's a relief. Wouldn't have put it past them to just let the shit fly and Ukraine get the blame - especially with the links to Palestine/Israel.

FSB is saying that the attackers were trying to flee towards Ukraine where they had "appropriate connections", so the blame game is still on.

not like the nazis... er russians need any particular excuse to commit genocide

[Tamas]

Is it just me being paranoid or it was a bit weird how a couple of hours later the Russians had the mugshots of the alleged perpetrators? I guess with their "secret service with a state" setup it is feasible though once they spot them on CCTV.

The idea is that a bunch of Caucasians would think the easiest get away route is slipping through the frontline of a shooting war is funny, though.

[The Minsky Moment]

I mean... I can point at the general state of russian military logistics at any time during the last two centuries if you'd like.

That's not very reassuring. Russia took a lot of really bad punches in WW2 and still managed to maintain credible offensives.

To the extent Russia has access to Chinese manufacturing and oil services technicians in addition to their own (Russia is still #3 in the world in refining cap), I'm also still struggling with the idea that repair of an oil refinery is beyond their capabilities.

[The Minsky Moment]

https://energyandcleanair.org/september-2023-monthly-analysis-on-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/

This is a pretty good analysis as of September 2023.  It's a pretty diversified product mix. One takeaway is that lower volumes don't necessarily translate into lower revenues if price goes up.  Another is that Russia is having problems keeping sufficient supplies going into the civilian economy while also maintaining export volumes.  So there is an argument for drone attacks on refinery infrastructure assuming (as likely) a favorable cost-benefit ratio. But assuming Russia is willing to either allow higher domestic prices or lower export revenues in order to keep the military supplied - there is no likely impact on military operations.  And unfortunately, I don't think there is any real risk that domestic annoyances or a little more financial stresses moves the needle on undermining Mr 89% Putin.

[Legbiter]

Is it just me being paranoid or it was a bit weird how a couple of hours later the Russians had the mugshots of the alleged perpetrators? I guess with their "secret service with a state" setup it is feasible though once they spot them on CCTV.

The idea is that a bunch of Caucasians would think the easiest get away route is slipping through the frontline of a shooting war is funny, though.

They now have a clip of a 'perpetrator' confessing all and how he was recruited online by Ukrainians, etc. Very Falkner in Red Storm Rising. 

[Maladict]

I'm finding it a bit odd that all shooters allowed themselves to be captured alive.

[HVC]

It's surprising that the suspects lost all their fingernails during the attack.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'll never celebrate or cheer on Islamic terrorism, but frankly I view the entirety of the Russian people as a criminal, and evil, people. No different than Germans under Hitler. When you allow evil to rule over you, then you are complicit in that evil, regardless of your role in society. For this reason the only Russians killed I can feel any empathy for would be the children, who do not have the moral guilt of their parents. Obviously not something to celebrate by any means, but I can't summon any tears for such an evil people.

[Legbiter]

It's surprising that the suspects lost all their fingernails during the attack.

Russian police cut the ear off one of them and made him eat it. Filmed it and uploaded to social mefia.

[Maladict]

It's surprising that the suspects lost all their fingernails during the attack.

Russian police cut the ear off one of them and made him eat it. Filmed it and uploaded to social mefia.

That will make up for them failing to follow up on threat warnings.

[Legbiter]

Wagnerian tough guy posturing is a poor substitute for competence.

[Maladict]

Wagnerian tough guy posturing is a poor substitute for competence.

That was the joke