Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

So a Polish MEP thanked the USA on Twitter for the explosion of the gaps pipes.

Not just a random MEP, but Radoslaw Sikorski, the former foreign minister during Tusk's premiership. I'd say that his word carries plenty of weight.

I really wonder what made him tweet that, though. There's nothing to gain and plenty to lose.

Yeah its awful.

[Legbiter]

Lyman is about to be liberated.

Yeah eventually. A large motti of Russians to wear down though.

[The Minsky Moment]

I realize grumbler and others have decided i'm trolling/needlessly contrarian, but my perspective has been, as long as i've been on this forum, that our military spending is absurdly high and we are far too prone to decide to embark on military adventures. And that these two things are linked. Connecting all of this is we really don't have any major military threats in the world (aside from nuclear).

If that's your argument then argue that: the US spends too much on the military and is too quick to intervene overseas.

If your argument is that the postwar order has outlived its original purpose and should be modified, then argue that.  Saying that the postwar order has collapsed or that "Bretton Woods has collapsed" is going to make people accuse you of trolling because those claims are untenable.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

So a Polish MEP thanked the USA on Twitter for the explosion of the gaps pipes.

Not just a random MEP, but Radoslaw Sikorski, the former foreign minister during Tusk's premiership. I'd say that his word carries plenty of weight.

I really wonder what made him tweet that, though. There's nothing to gain and plenty to lose.

That would be a dumb thing to tweet. Just more proof that politicians shouldn't be tweeting

[alfred russel]

If that's your argument then argue that: the US spends too much on the military and is too quick to intervene overseas.

I have been for well over a decade.

If your argument is that the postwar order has outlived its original purpose and should be modified, then argue that.  Saying that the postwar order has collapsed or that "Bretton Woods has collapsed" is going to make people accuse you of trolling because those claims are untenable.

The postwar order has collapsed. The postwar order, roughly stated, involved democratic states vs. communist ones, with each side with coalitions involving significant international cooperation significantly motivated by a need to effectively oppose the other side. There were also a large number of mostly underdeveloped non aligned states in which the democratic west and communist block competed for influence, often militarily and through dubious means such as coups. Especially in eastern europe, there was a recognized sphere of influence in which military action to maintain control was accepted. Evidence this world is not just the international reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, but also the fact that no one is concerned that a coup is going to happen again in Chile, even though they just elected a communist linked president who even has an allende relative in his cabinet. Obviously if such a coup did take place at US initiative, the world would lose its shit - we don't live in that world anymore.

The bretton woods system did end...through the jamaica accords.

[The Larch]

Sikorski's "offending" tweet:



He then posted this:

BTW, there's no shortage of pipeline capacity for taking gas from Russia to Western Europe, including Germany. Nordstream's only logic was for Putin to be able to blackmail or wage war on Eastern Europe with impunity.

All Ukrainian and Baltic sea states have opposed Nordstream's construction for 20 years.
Now $20 billion of scrap metal lies at the bottom of the sea, another cost to Russia of its criminal decision to invade Ukraine.
Someone, @MFA_Russia, did a special maintenance operation.

And also retweeted a press conference by Biden in which he said:

Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that."

[The Minsky Moment]

The bretton woods system did end...through the jamaica accords.

The Bretton Woods institutions are very much alive and well.  The financial system based on the international dollar is stronger then it in ever has been.  The gold link was always plumbing - after the initial freak out when Nixon broke the link, it soon became apparent that the fundamentals were unaffected.

I doubt that more than a handful of specialist economic historians could identify the Jamaica Accords.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I don't favor reducing U.S. military spending, I might agree with shifting around numbers--we need to recommit to a much larger surface fleet in the Navy for example (and no, it isn't about a naval war with China, which will likely expose weaknesses in surface fleets.) But I would favor reducing spending as it relates to NATO and Europe, and more importantly reducing our strategic commitments and deployments there--there's an opportunity cost to those and an "attention cost" that IMO are more important than the financial.

[grumbler]

It's not terribly surprising to see someone with a very superficial knowledge of history claim that the post-WW2 international system consisted only of the Cold War nd its impacts.  After all, that's what the movies imply.

The truth, though, is that the heart of the post-WW2 rules-based international order was created before the Cold War started.  The Bretton Woods Conference was in 1944, when the Western Powers and the USSR were still allies; the United Nations and its charter for a rule-based order was created in June 1945, while the wars till raged and the Allies were still allies.  The Cold War was an aberration as far as the post-war system was concerned, and the system was even stronger after the collapse of the USSR than before that.

The truth is unglamorous, however, and doesn't lend itself to heroic acts.  That's why some prefer the myth of the world back then being simply divided into Good Guys and Bad Guys.

[Jacob]

What is the evidence that the postwar order has collapsed?

[alfred russel]

The Cold War was an aberration as far as the post-war system was concerned,

Fascinating perspective on what constitutes the "post-war system".

[alfred russel]

What is the evidence that the postwar order has collapsed?

I guess it really defines on what constitutes "the postwar order", but I think deepening military involvement of many NATO countries in an aggressive war of Russia in Ukraine is an undeniable symptom / evidence.

[Berkut]

What is the evidence that the postwar order has collapsed?

I guess it really defines on what constitutes "the postwar order", but I think deepening military involvement of many NATO countries in an aggressive war of Russia in Ukraine is an undeniable symptom / evidence.

Wow, I would think exactly the opposite.

The aggressive (or in the case of most European/NATO countries, not very aggressive at all) military involvement in defending a fellow sovereign nation that is NOT part of NATO is an undeniable bit of evidence that the post-war world liberal world order is still in place.

[The Minsky Moment]

The Cold War was an aberration as far as the post-war system was concerned,

Fascinating perspective on what constitutes the "post-war system".

His point is that key architecture of that system was constructed before the Cold War started and its builders did not anticipate the Cold War when they made their plans.  The major exception was NATO, which was an adaptation of those plans to respond to emerging Cold War realities.  It's a significant exception but it didn't come out of nowhere; it was an operationalization of the principles of Atlantic Charter and the revived principles of multi-lateral collective security that emerged during and out of WW2

[alfred russel]

Wow, I would think exactly the opposite.

The aggressive (or in the case of most European/NATO countries, not very aggressive at all) military involvement in defending a fellow sovereign nation that is NOT part of NATO is an undeniable bit of evidence that the post-war world liberal world order is still in place.

You may think of it as an improvement, or a sign of strength of the liberal world order. All that may be. But is a dramatic change from the era of 1946-1989, where the USSR freely intervened in eastern european countries that were more or less assigned to its sphere of influence after WWII.