Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[mongers]

It's possible* Putin chooses to use one or more nuclear weapons, but how and with what success?

Assuming the 'generals' allow tactical nuclear weapons to be used, would he go for a demonstration shot first, maybe off the coast of Ukraine?

The Ukrainians don't appear to have massed big concentrations of armour in their operations so far, so are there likely to be any 'juicy' targets for nuclear strikes, plus Russian intelligence on the Ukrainian dispositions seems rather poor, if there were such a concentration would they even spot it?

Maybe the Russian choose to nuke one or two rail-hubs/cities/towns just behind the advancing Ukrainian forces? Putin hoping the shock value would cause Kiev to halt operations? What if they shrug that off and continue advancing into 'New Russia'?




* I think it's now likely even probable, but many here would disagree with that.

[grumbler]

Does anyone have reliable numbers of Russian KIA since the war started? Just curious.

NPR quoted some intel agency as estimating that the Russians have lost 80,000 men KIA or severely wounded enough as to be unfit for further service.

[grumbler]

I don't think that Putin's generals will allow him to use nuclear weapons.  Their nuclear forces are in terrible shape and escalating the shooting to nuclear will leave Russia much worse off, and potentially annihilated.  Those generals have families and are not eager to see their children die.

[Valmy]

The nuclear winter will take care of all the global warming we have been having.

[Zoupa]

Fuck them. Bucha and Mariupol and Izyum: not one russian in the streets. Mobilisation: now they wake up. Fuck them all. May they rot in that hellhole of a country.

I'm not going to argue about whether you - or anyone else - should have any sympathy for anti-mobilization protestors in Russia. But I think we can agree that at this point, any kind of internal instability in Russia is a net good even if none of the actors are appealing?

Oh sure. It's just I don't like seeing Western journalists (or anyone really) going on about how brave and heroic these protesters are. These are protests against mobilisation, not against the war.

There were some very limited protests back in March in St-Petersburg and other places, respect to those kids. Those protesting now? Go get HIMARSed out in the steppe buddy.

[Solmyr]

Fuck them. Bucha and Mariupol and Izyum: not one russian in the streets. Mobilisation: now they wake up. Fuck them all. May they rot in that hellhole of a country.

I'm not going to argue about whether you - or anyone else - should have any sympathy for anti-mobilization protestors in Russia. But I think we can agree that at this point, any kind of internal instability in Russia is a net good even if none of the actors are appealing?

Oh sure. It's just I don't like seeing Western journalists (or anyone really) going on about how brave and heroic these protesters are. These are protests against mobilisation, not against the war.

There were some very limited protests back in March in St-Petersburg and other places, respect to those kids. Those protesting now? Go get HIMARSed out in the steppe buddy.

All those protests were, in fact, organized by the same people. So yeah, they are protesting the war now as well.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Does anyone have reliable numbers of Russian KIA since the war started? Just curious.

NPR quoted some intel agency as estimating that the Russians have lost 80,000 men KIA or severely wounded enough as to be unfit for further service.

I've seen numbers around 56k dead, 150k wounded or otherwise out.

[Zoupa]

Fuck them. Bucha and Mariupol and Izyum: not one russian in the streets. Mobilisation: now they wake up. Fuck them all. May they rot in that hellhole of a country.

I'm not going to argue about whether you - or anyone else - should have any sympathy for anti-mobilization protestors in Russia. But I think we can agree that at this point, any kind of internal instability in Russia is a net good even if none of the actors are appealing?

Oh sure. It's just I don't like seeing Western journalists (or anyone really) going on about how brave and heroic these protesters are. These are protests against mobilisation, not against the war.

There were some very limited protests back in March in St-Petersburg and other places, respect to those kids. Those protesting now? Go get HIMARSed out in the steppe buddy.

All those protests were, in fact, organized by the same people. So yeah, they are protesting the war now as well.

Point still stands. Bucha, Mariupol, Irpin, Izyum: nada. Mobilisation: OmG pUtIN iS ev0l!!11!! Stop the war!!!11!!

If, as you say, the organizers are the same, they've been awfully quiet the past 7 months.

[Tamas]

I very much get where Zoupa is coming from and I share his feelings, but the reality is that in a system like Putin's, protesting is a very risky enterprise. While not a moral stance to be applauded, it is understandable that for many people the risk-potential reward ratio seem way off when they weight their personal freedom and safety against stopping the war (especially being realistic about the chances of some urbanite protest has on changing policy in a country like Russia).

You can be anti-war without being anti-war enough to risk 15 years in prison for a gesture move.

The risk-reward ratio however changes significantly when your or your loved ones' personal safety is in danger (due to conscription) whether you protest or not.

It's not like mass protests against the Vietnam War started before the draft, did they?

I am more disappointed at the very limited scale of these protests, really. It's nothing substantial from what I can tell from here, except maybe the unrest in Dagestan.

[Josquius]

What matters is not the motivation but the end goal.

Someone could be against the war in ukriane for some ridiculous reason. Maybe they think Russia should be concentrating on genociding Muslims or some shit instead.

As long as this isn't the majority view all that matters is the end result that most people are united in opposing the war.

[Tamas]

I wish the Guardian wasn't reporting on the "vote" starting in the occupied territories. It's the most obvious farce ever and there should be no polite pretense left for even a remote possibility that if any votes are actually cast they will be considered before determining the end result.

[The Brain]

I think it would be insane to give asylum to Russian draft dodgers. 1) It would set a horrible precedent 2) not wanting to go to the front yourself is not even close to being the same as being opposed to the war or to the regime 3) if they actually are opposed to the war they should stay in Russia and oppose the war 4) getting rid of malcontents strengthens Russia's regime, it doesn't weaken it.

[The Larch]

Patriarch Kirill urged not to be afraid of death amid mobilization
 
"Go bravely to fulfill your military duty.And remember that if you die for your country, you will be with God in his kingdom, glory and eternal life"

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1573058637383471104

He's only missing the "Deus vult" part, or promising a certain amount of virgins in paradise for those fallen in battle.

[Sheilbh]

Morale doesn't look great:
https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306?s=20&t=SqcSZvR6aNBUYOewrIawwA

[Legbiter]

I hope the Ukrainians can do one more Kharkiv-like offensive before the autumn rains start. Get a chain-rout going before the meat can fully trickle in. Wish the Ukrainians had the means to blow up the Kerch bridge.