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US: Inequalities causing slower growth

Started by viper37, August 06, 2014, 02:03:04 PM

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MadImmortalMan

It depresses bond rates, which drives investment capital into stocks because investors are seeking yield. This increases buying demand in the market, pushing prices higher.

Stock market 101. Not even 101. You have to know that to get into preschool.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

CountDeMoney

Still has nothing to do with companies suppressing wages.

citizen k


MadImmortalMan

The real thing to ask is not whether the easing was bad or helpful (it seems to have been nearly universally helpful) but what happens when bond rates normalize.

On a global perspective, we've been at historically large rates of debt for a historically long period of time. We're already outside of the normative historical range by a significant factor. The question about that is, will it normalize or is this a new normal? Is this time different?

Maybe everything will settle down and grow out of it or maybe there will be a 21st century Napoleputin and everyone will default.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on August 06, 2014, 06:54:49 PM
It depresses bond rates, which drives investment capital into stocks because investors are seeking yield. This increases buying demand in the market, pushing prices higher.

Stock market 101. Not even 101. You have to know that to get into preschool.

Except like most stock market related nostrums you learn in preschool, it doesn't necessarily hold.  If it did the S&P would not be stalling right now even though everyone recognizes there is a bubble in high yield debt and Treasuries yield squat.  The rotation is stalled.
Historically the correlation between interest rates and the S&P is not unambiguous.  Lower rates do tend to drive up P/E ratios because it implies a lower discount to future earnings, but of course the "E" part still has to be strong.  The circumstances matter.  Are low rates spurring investment or are they a symptom of flight to safety?
The yield channel you mention is problematic because what matters for asset class selection is directional movement - i.e. yields may be "low" but if the expectation is that bond prices will continue to rise, then it doesn't make sense to switch.  But the effect on discount rates still holds, so it is possible for bonds and stocks to do well at the same time.  It is not a simple binary choice.

I repeat - the Fed doesn't target the stock market.  They target inflation and employment.  If inflation is low the priority is growth.  If people believe the Fed will be successful then stocks will go up because that implies higher future earnings.  The Fed is not "pumping up the stock market".  Investors bid up stock higher because the Fed action is changing the perceived underlying fundamentals. 
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Ideologue

Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 02:36:06 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 02:12:43 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 06, 2014, 02:07:40 PM
Where's the exec summ?

Apparently we need to get more people in college.

[Ide] JDs for all! [/Ide]

How about rich families for all?  That's the Malthus way, and it's worked out for you.
Kinemalogue
Current reviews: The 'Burbs (9/10); Gremlins 2: The New Batch (9/10); John Wick: Chapter 2 (9/10); A Cure For Wellness (4/10)

Eddie Teach

JDs for some, tiny microscopes for others?
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

CountDeMoney

Quote from: Ideologue on August 07, 2014, 07:23:03 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 02:36:06 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 02:12:43 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 06, 2014, 02:07:40 PM
Where's the exec summ?

Apparently we need to get more people in college.

[Ide] JDs for all! [/Ide]

How about rich families for all?  That's the Malthus way, and it's worked out for you.

You tell 'em, Ide.  :mad:

We all can't win the "Lucky Sperm of the Month Club" lottery.

derspiess

Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 07, 2014, 08:51:30 AM
We all can't win the "Lucky Sperm of the Month Club" lottery.

Check your privilege.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Malthus

Quote from: Ideologue on August 07, 2014, 07:23:03 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 02:36:06 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 02:12:43 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 06, 2014, 02:07:40 PM
Where's the exec summ?

Apparently we need to get more people in college.

[Ide] JDs for all! [/Ide]

How about rich families for all?  That's the Malthus way, and it's worked out for you.

My family was rich enough to get me a JD.  :D
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

CountDeMoney

Quote from: derspiess on August 07, 2014, 08:57:50 AM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on August 07, 2014, 08:51:30 AM
We all can't win the "Lucky Sperm of the Month Club" lottery.

Check your privilege.

Check my ballsack luxuriously resting upon that massive forehead of yours, like the sun bathing the Bonneville Flats, but with pubes.

derspiess

"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

CountDeMoney

Spoiled pubes.  Please, partake of them.

derspiess

"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Ideologue

Quote from: Malthus on August 07, 2014, 09:00:01 AM
Quote from: Ideologue on August 07, 2014, 07:23:03 AM
Quote from: Malthus on August 06, 2014, 02:36:06 PM
Quote from: derspiess on August 06, 2014, 02:12:43 PM
Quote from: garbon on August 06, 2014, 02:07:40 PM
Where's the exec summ?

Apparently we need to get more people in college.

[Ide] JDs for all! [/Ide]

How about rich families for all?  That's the Malthus way, and it's worked out for you.

My family was rich enough to get me a ____.  :D

Fixed your post. <_<
Kinemalogue
Current reviews: The 'Burbs (9/10); Gremlins 2: The New Batch (9/10); John Wick: Chapter 2 (9/10); A Cure For Wellness (4/10)