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Is there less rape these days?

Started by Berkut, June 10, 2009, 03:17:41 PM

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Berkut

I was thinking that with DNA technology, it would be nearly impossible to get away with a actual violent rape, wouldn't it?

Assuming it is reported, of course. I wonder if the numbers have declined as a reuslt of the availability of technology to identify assailants.

BB - is my assumption accurate? If someone comes in and reports an actual violent rape (not a date rape kind of thing, where there could be some question about whether it was rape or not) of the masked guy grabbing someone and such, is that a pretty slam dunk case, assuming you have a suspect?
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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Malthus

Quote from: Berkut on June 10, 2009, 03:17:41 PM
I was thinking that with DNA technology, it would be nearly impossible to get away with a actual violent rape, wouldn't it?

Assuming it is reported, of course. I wonder if the numbers have declined as a reuslt of the availability of technology to identify assailants.

BB - is my assumption accurate? If someone comes in and reports an actual violent rape (not a date rape kind of thing, where there could be some question about whether it was rape or not) of the masked guy grabbing someone and such, is that a pretty slam dunk case, assuming you have a suspect?

I would assume the problem is locating the suspect. If it is really a stranger, there may be nothing in the way of clues.
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane—Marcus Aurelius

Berkut

Quote from: Malthus on June 10, 2009, 03:19:30 PM
Quote from: Berkut on June 10, 2009, 03:17:41 PM
I was thinking that with DNA technology, it would be nearly impossible to get away with a actual violent rape, wouldn't it?

Assuming it is reported, of course. I wonder if the numbers have declined as a reuslt of the availability of technology to identify assailants.

BB - is my assumption accurate? If someone comes in and reports an actual violent rape (not a date rape kind of thing, where there could be some question about whether it was rape or not) of the masked guy grabbing someone and such, is that a pretty slam dunk case, assuming you have a suspect?

I would assume the problem is locating the suspect. If it is really a stranger, there may be nothing in the way of clues.

True, but that has always been a problem. Now at least if you can get a suspect, there is never going to be any question about whether that person actually had sex with that other person.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

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Caliga

Are you assuming in this that most rapists are a) not stupid, or b) able to control their violent urges?
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MadImmortalMan

I would guess there are less rapes, uh, per capita than there have been historically. But there's more people. Probably places with failed states where things like pillaging still happen regularly like Africa have similar rates to Europe in the dark ages. I don't know.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

The Brain

Quote from: Caliga on June 10, 2009, 03:22:22 PM
Are you assuming in this that most rapists are a) not stupid, or b) able to control their violent urges?

Presumably if it is hard to get away with it more rapists will be locked up.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Berkut

Quote from: Caliga on June 10, 2009, 03:22:22 PM
Are you assuming in this that most rapists are a) not stupid, or b) able to control their violent urges?

Well, I guess to some extent I am, but you raise a good point.

However, if in fact many rapists must rape regardless of whether they get caught or not, then presumably more would get caught and locked up or get wahtever help they need and hopefully stop raping people?
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The Brain

Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Berkut

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dps

Violent crime overall has dropped in the last 30 or so years, but I don't recall if rape is following the overall trend or not.   It's generally agreed as best as I can tell that social factors are more important in this trend than new crime-fighting technology.

Alcibiades

I think rape is probably the same or higher actually. 

Depending your definition of rape really.  More acceptable to be out drinking at younger ages with the other sex etc.

A lot, more than half, of the females my age that I know have considered themselves to be raped, or have had an attempt.


*shrug*
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DisturbedPervert

Probably more, after all it comes in 40 lbs boxes these days.

MadImmortalMan

Quote from: Alcibiades on June 10, 2009, 11:13:41 PM

A lot, more than half, of the females my age that I know have considered themselves to be raped, or have had an attempt.



Wtf that can't possibly be right. Unless lascivious glances are rape now.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Barrister

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on June 10, 2009, 11:49:48 PM
Quote from: Alcibiades on June 10, 2009, 11:13:41 PM

A lot, more than half, of the females my age that I know have considered themselves to be raped, or have had an attempt.



Wtf that can't possibly be right. Unless lascivious glances are rape now.

I can't even guess as to percentages, but the huge majority of rapes are between people who know each other.  Calling them a "date rape" is a term that seems to diminish the severity because usually they aren't on anything resembling a date, merely acquaintances or friends.  But once the alcohol starts flowing one party starts to get ideas, and when there are no witnesses around...

Berkut, I don't know if what I'll call "stranger rape" is down or not.  It was always a fairly unusual crime, the whole idea of the pervert lurking in the bushes.  You do see a minority of offenders who are surprisingly prepared - you do get rapists who wear condoms and rubber gloves, and even shave off all body and public hair.  But it has always been that most rape victims know the identity of their perpetrator.

But DNA does very little to help in the rapist known to the victim.  Now occasionally we do get the rapist that foolishly denies ever having sex, so once the DNA comes back we can establish he's a liar and he's done for.  But if he's "smart" he simply claims "I don't know, she wanted it that night".  And with beyond a reasonable doubt its awfully hard to prove when its one word against another, no matter how unlikely it seems that the 17 year old girl would consent to have sex with the 44 year old man...
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Monoriu

Somehow I don't think rapers are rational enough to factor DNA testing into consideration.