Russia's Early Warning System Is Falling Apart

[jimmy olsen]

"The Time For A First Strike Against Russia Is Now!"

http://io9.com/one-of-russias-last-remaining-early-warning-satellites-1595985431

One of Russia's Last Remaining Early-Warning Satellites Just Died

Yesterday 12:00pm

The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that its only geostationary early-warning satellite — the Cosmos-2479, launched two years ago — is no longer functioning. With just two other observation satellites left in orbit, the chances of a false-alarm nuclear attack just escalated.

An incident that occurred 20 years ago helps illustrate why this news merits a severe case of the uh-ohs. At dawn on January 25, 1995, Norwegian scientists and their NASA colleagues launched a large sounding rocket from Andoya Island, off the coast of Norway, to study the Northern Lights. As the rocket climbed in altitude, it was detected by a Russian radar installation 470 miles away at Olenegursk. The trajectory suggested that it could be a Trident missile, launched from a U.S. submarine, to detonate in the atmosphere and blind Russian early-warning radars to a massive first strike. Within minutes, Russia's command and control system was placed on higher alert and President Boris Yeltsin activated his "nuclear briefcase," allowing him to issue launch orders, if necessary.

Yeltsin, learning that it was a false alarm, never launched those missiles, thanks in large part to a complete fleet of early-warning satellites that Russia had inherited from the Soviet Union — which provided continuous, 24-hour surveillance of U.S. continental missile fields.

Not any more.

Russia has traditionally relied on two different types of satellites — a redundancy system designed to detect missile launches while also reducing the likelihood of false alarms. One type follows a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) that looks at the Earth at a glancing angle, so that it can easily detect missile plumes silhouetted against the dark background of space—thus reducing the chance that incoming missiles could be mistaken for naturally occurring phenomena. (The two remaining Russian early-warning spacecraft, Cosmos-2422 and Cosmos-2446, are HEO satellites.)

However, in 1983, there was the "Autumn Equinox Incident," when an HEO satellite, the sun and U.S. missile fields aligned in such a way that light reflecting off high-orbit clouds appeared to be a missile in flight. That incident prompted Moscow to widen its field of vision by launching geostationary satellites — remaining in the same position relative to a stationary observer on Earth — which were designed to look straight down at the U.S.

That additional capability is now gone. And, with only two early-warning satellites, Russia's period of surveillance has dropped from 24 hours to 3 hours per day.

Several U.S. security officials still wonder if things would have turned out differently during the 1995 false alarm, if the incident had taken place during a political crisis or period of tension between the U.S. and Russia.

Today, Russia's early-warning system is falling apart during an actual period of political tension. Just one month ago, the U.S. and Russia conducted large-scale nuclear drills within days of one another. The Cold War is over, but it's getting a bit too chilly to be comfortable with Russia's broken early-warning system.

[KRonn]

Heh, Russia has the capacity to to transport US/other astronauts to the Space Station, yet hasn't bothered to upgrade such a critical satellite system!

[Viking]

Heh, Russia has the capacity to to transport US/other astronauts to the Space Station, yet hasn't bothered to upgrade such a critical satellite system!

NASA pays with Hard Currency.

[grumbler]

Heh, Russia has the capacity to to transport US/other astronauts to the Space Station, yet hasn't bothered to upgrade such a critical satellite system!

Not much "critical" about it, given that its job was to confirm what was already known;  that the US wasn't launching missiles at Russia.

I'll bet the Russian DSP satellite over Asia has a back up!

[The Brain]

However, in 1983, there was the "Autumn Equinox Incident," when an HEO satellite, the sun and U.S. missile fields aligned in such a way that light reflecting off high-orbit clouds appeared to be a missile in flight.

Right.

[Siege]

Totalitarian regimes always fail.

Putin's eye was focused on Ukraine and two hobbits sneaked in and destroyed the ring of early warning.

[jimmy olsen]

However, in 1983, there was the "Autumn Equinox Incident," when an HEO satellite, the sun and U.S. missile fields aligned in such a way that light reflecting off high-orbit clouds appeared to be a missile in flight.

Right.

Was it aliens?

[Ideologue]

I was misquoted.  I'm sure I was talking about China.

[jimmy olsen]

I was misquoted.  I'm sure I was talking about China.

I am positive you said this several years back when an article outlining the decrepit state of the Russian early warning system was posted.

[Josquius]

Heh, Russia has the capacity to to transport US/other astronauts to the Space Station, yet hasn't bothered to upgrade such a critical satellite system!

Getting people to and from the space station is critical.
Trying to get a few minutes advantage on non-existent American sneak attack...less so.

[Ideologue]

I was misquoted.  I'm sure I was talking about China.

I am positive you said this several years back when an article outlining the decrepit state of the Russian early warning system was posted.

It was in response to an Atlantic article from about ten years ago that indicated that the Russian and Chinese nuclear deterrents were absolutely incredible, in that they could not survive a first strike at all.  I do not recall advocating any particular course of action vis-a-vis Russia.

[KRonn]

Heh, Russia has the capacity to to transport US/other astronauts to the Space Station, yet hasn't bothered to upgrade such a critical satellite system!

Getting people to and from the space station is critical.
Trying to get a few minutes advantage on non-existent American sneak attack...less so.

The issue I was referring to was the problems the Russkies have had with early warning systems before and being able to determine that a nuclear attack hasn't been made so as not to panic and start launching missiles.      

[Razgovory]

What a silly alarmist story.  Sure the satellite network may not be up to snuff, but missile compounds all have burglar alarms and most of them keep their virus protection up to date.  So they have plenty of early warning systems working.

[Jaron]

I thought that said HBO satellite.