Elon Musk: I'll put HUMANS on MARS by 2026

[viper37]

The problem with manned space exploration is that, national pride aside, there is essentially no incentive to do it.

national pride and to if it can be done is sufficient reason enough. Pushing outwards is wat this species does.

It was sufficient reason during the Cold War, to reach the moon. I am not convinced it is sufficient reason to keep doing it to put humans on other barren planets. "First to put a man on Pluto!" is not likely to be terribly motivating.

Our species certainly explores, but there is no need to send actual people to do the exploring - and less and less need, as our machines get better and better (and smaller and smaller). Simply put, there is nothing worth humans personally reaching in our solar system. It would certainly be cool, assuming one could stand the boredom of the journey, which is why this option seems to be the perview of, basically, vastly wealthy tourists.

Now, maybe people could be convinced to fund colonization of other systems at some point in the future - but again, there is simply no way for this to benefit any of the people expected to pay for it. People are not much for completely unrewarded acts.

Seriously, 2026 is way too early, but I see that, eventually, man missionned, preceded by various probing of the grounds in search of valuable minerals could be done.  Of course, spending your whole life in a dome might not be worthwhile, but eventually, who knows, mining colonies in our own system, refueling stations of some sort for inter solar explorations to find newly habitable planet.  Might be a way to solve the the mideast crisis, mind you, deport all Jews&Arab over there, declare half the Planet New Jerusalem West, the other half New Jerusalm East and let them live there in peace (or most likely, eternal war).

Eventually, we'll have too many people for the Earth, so we kinda need some fall back place, some new colonies.  There's also the possibility of a natural disaster where we need to evacuate Earth.  If we never make the baby steps, we'll never be ready when the time comes.

[Malthus]

The problem with manned space exploration is that, national pride aside, there is essentially no incentive to do it.

national pride and to if it can be done is sufficient reason enough. Pushing outwards is wat this species does.

It was sufficient reason during the Cold War, to reach the moon. I am not convinced it is sufficient reason to keep doing it to put humans on other barren planets. "First to put a man on Pluto!" is not likely to be terribly motivating.

Our species certainly explores, but there is no need to send actual people to do the exploring - and less and less need, as our machines get better and better (and smaller and smaller). Simply put, there is nothing worth humans personally reaching in our solar system. It would certainly be cool, assuming one could stand the boredom of the journey, which is why this option seems to be the perview of, basically, vastly wealthy tourists.

Now, maybe people could be convinced to fund colonization of other systems at some point in the future - but again, there is simply no way for this to benefit any of the people expected to pay for it. People are not much for completely unrewarded acts.

Seriously, 2026 is way too early, but I see that, eventually, man missionned, preceded by various probing of the grounds in search of valuable minerals could be done.  Of course, spending your whole life in a dome might not be worthwhile, but eventually, who knows, mining colonies in our own system, refueling stations of some sort for inter solar explorations to find newly habitable planet.  Might be a way to solve the the mideast crisis, mind you, deport all Jews&Arab over there, declare half the Planet New Jerusalem West, the other half New Jerusalm East and let them live there in peace (or most likely, eternal war).

Eventually, we'll have too many people for the Earth, so we kinda need some fall back place, some new colonies.  There's also the possibility of a natural disaster where we need to evacuate Earth.  If we never make the baby steps, we'll never be ready when the time comes.

There is no serious possibility of shipping excess population off-planet.

In reality, the best possible scenario would be to plant tiny colonies of humans off-planet somewhere. Such colonies would serve no economic function for Earthlings, as there is nothing in the universe that is valuable enough to justify spending the energy necessary to retrieve it to Earth.

[viper37]

In reality, the best possible scenario would be to plant tiny colonies of humans off-planet somewhere. Such colonies would serve no economic function for Earthlings, as there is nothing in the universe that is valuable enough to justify spending the energy necessary to retrieve it to Earth.

New France was a drag to France's finances.  Lots of territory to defend and no valuable resources, except fur, wich wasn't that much in demand anymore in Europe.  Yet, somehow, we formed a couple of provinces&states out of this piece of land wich happen to be productive today, compared to some of the old, safe world.

[Eddie Teach]

In reality, the best possible scenario would be to plant tiny colonies of humans off-planet somewhere. Such colonies would serve no economic function for Earthlings, as there is nothing in the universe that is valuable enough to justify spending the energy necessary to retrieve it to Earth.

New France was a drag to France's finances.  Lots of territory to defend and no valuable resources, except fur, wich wasn't that much in demand anymore in Europe.  Yet, somehow, we formed a couple of provinces&states out of this piece of land wich happen to be productive today, compared to some of the old, safe world.

Wind to power the sails to travel between the two was free.

[Josquius]

The problem with manned space exploration is that, national pride aside, there is essentially no incentive to do it.

I'm pretty sure lots of people in European courts were arguing that in the 16th century.  Heck, even by the 18th century, it was still argued at Versailles.

There are no Space-Indies.

[jimmy olsen]

The problem with manned space exploration is that, national pride aside, there is essentially no incentive to do it.

I'm pretty sure lots of people in European courts were arguing that in the 16th century.  Heck, even by the 18th century, it was still argued at Versailles.

There are no Space-Indies.

Asteroid belt

[Norgy]

The problem with manned space exploration is that, national pride aside, there is essentially no incentive to do it.

I'm pretty sure lots of people in European courts were arguing that in the 16th century.  Heck, even by the 18th century, it was still argued at Versailles.

There are no Space-Indies.

Sure there are.
Soon the East Andromeda Company will screw you over.

[Valmy]

Where are we going to buy our slaves to toil on our asteroid plantations? 

[Norgy]

If you ask the Universe, it will provide.

[Valmy]

If you ask the Universe, it will provide.

I see you are trained in the ways of The Secret-fu.

[Norgy]

Yes, Valmy-san, I grow ever stronger.

[Malthus]

In reality, the best possible scenario would be to plant tiny colonies of humans off-planet somewhere. Such colonies would serve no economic function for Earthlings, as there is nothing in the universe that is valuable enough to justify spending the energy necessary to retrieve it to Earth.

New France was a drag to France's finances.  Lots of territory to defend and no valuable resources, except fur, wich wasn't that much in demand anymore in Europe.  Yet, somehow, we formed a couple of provinces&states out of this piece of land wich happen to be productive today, compared to some of the old, safe world.

Canada was important for fashion - the fashion for beaver hats. 

When the fashion died out, France was left with a foothold on the continent - and made a serious effort to expand that into taking the whole ball of wax. That didn't work out, that whole seven years war thing, and France focused its efforts on the sugar islands.

Point is that at every stage there was either a gain, or the prospect of gain in the future.

You will note that despite actually being on this planet, aside from scientific stations no-one has "colonized" Antarctica. Why? Too expensive. No doubt there are oil and minerals to be found, but they are still cheaper to get at elsewhere. 

There simply isn't a compelling economic case for colonizing the solar system with humans, and likely never will be. Even assuming there are valuable minerals in great abundance in (say) the asteroid belt, by the time we become interested in them, it will simply make more sense to send machines to do that work. Unless we discover some free energy source, taking minerals into and out of gravity wells is always going to be way more expensive than simply finding them on earth.

[The Minsky Moment]

At any given time there are over 1000 human beings living in Antarctica, mostly for scientific research but also some tourism support.  Obviously the costs of Mars are much higher but there are also unique scientific research options as well. 

[Norgy]

At any given time there are over 1000 human beings living in Antarctica, mostly for scientific research but also some tourism support.  Obviously the costs of Mars are much higher but there are also unique scientific research options as well.

Don't forget the unlimited potential of scary movies with new virae and stuff living beneath the ground. Could give Hollywood a second, maybe even third wind.

[Malthus]

At any given time there are over 1000 human beings living in Antarctica, mostly for scientific research but also some tourism support.  Obviously the costs of Mars are much higher but there are also unique scientific research options as well.

As I said already, "aside from scientific stations".

There may be some limited potential for sending people to mars, mostly to study how sending people to mars affects them; and, as I said upthread, the "vastly wealthy tourist market" may exist for mars trips.

Other than that, it is hard to see what tasks a person could do in such inhospitable enviromnents, that a machine could not do safer, better, and considerably cheaper. Machines don't require, for example, a return trip. It is easier to fully sterilize machines so as to avoid contaminating sites with earthly life. Machines do not need constant supplies of various foods, air and water. Machines can go dormant for years and be re-activated. The list goes on.

Mostly, the longing for space colonies of actual humans is a longing for science fiction fantasies to be realized.