The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

Dress them in blue, dress them in white, dress them in red; they will run away all the same.

[derspiess]

The less gear we give Iraq the less well armed ISIS will end up.

Maybe we should give them gear that self-destructs or breaks down after a few months.

[jimmy olsen]

I'm suprised they prefer to use them in Iraq rather than in Syria against the government.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htchem/20150805.aspx

August 5, 2015: ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant) is apparently trying to build chemical weapons ammunition by filling 120 mortar shells with potentially lethal industrial chemicals. The most common chemical used is chlorine, but some shells have also been found filled with a grain fumigant and there are plenty of other noxious chemicals in areas controlled by ISIL. Chemicals like this can be lethal to humans in large quantities, but when used in a mortar shell or as part of a vehicle bomb the amounts victims might be exposed to only have temporary effects ranging from nausea to poor vision, problems breathing and so on. Since most of the ISIL leadership also belonged to the pre-2008 Iraqi al Qaeda movement they are apparently familiar with similar tactics used back in 2006-8 and content to use this sort of thing simply to terrorize their foes.

Back in 2006-8 there were over a dozen suicide bombing attacks in Iraq that featured the use of chlorine. These were recognized as attempts to use chlorine as a chemical weapon. These efforts were unsuccessful, despite the fact that the first chemical weapon attack in modern history, in 1915, used 168 tons of chlorine gas. Then, as now, chlorine proved to be an inefficient chemical weapon and was quickly replaced by more effective ones in 1915. This is what has people worried back in 2007. The Islamic terrorists also noted the ineffectiveness of their chlorine use in bombs, and intel monitoring picked up lots of chatter about obtaining more powerful chemical weapons. Then, and now, there are still many people in Iraq, and most are Sunni Arabs, who know how to manufacture more lethal chemical agents (like mustard gas, which burns skin, eyes, or your lungs, if you inhale it). It appears that ISIL has revived the 2007 effort, perhaps using the same chemical weapons experts from the pre-2003 Saddam Hussein era. Turning all this into a super-weapon is very difficult. 

The problem with these chemical weapons, from a military point of view, is that the stuff wounds and demoralizes more than it kills. This was discovered during the first major uses of chemical weapons in World War I (1914-18). Troops were so distracted by the effects of chemical weapons that they tended to forget about fighting and instead concentrated on getting out of the way of the chemical weapons and dealing with the injuries. The generals did not like the way chemical weapons destroyed military organization and discipline and were willing to go along with post-war treaties that outlawed the use of such weapons. But they were still stockpiled by the major powers, in case someone else used them. Someone else did, during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), where the demoralizing effects of mustard and nerve gas disorganized and demoralized the more powerful Iranian army, and saved Saddam from defeat. For terrorists, of course, chemical weapons are an excellent tool if you can get them to work.

While the Sunni Arab terrorists in Iraq have access to people who know how to manufacture mustard and nerve gas, actually doing it is rather difficult. Then, there is the problem of blowback when you do use the stuff for terrorist attacks, and the images of civilians, especially children, injured by these weapons, reach a wide audience. Back in 2007 the chatter among Sunni Arab terrorists, and their supporters, made mention of all this, and apparently no one felt confident enough to "go chemical" in a big way. 

Apparently the "chemical option" was not forgotten and someone in ISIL appears eager to revive it. ISIL has not captured any chemical plants capable of manufacturing the deadlier World War I chemical weapons and building such a manufacturing capability from scratch is very difficult and likely to be detected. The chemical threat from ISIL is, however, no longer just theoretical. 

The Kurds, who have been on the receiving end of most of these chemical attacks, are taking no chances and have warned their troops in front line positions vulnerable to mortar attack. New deployment tactics have been used and their American military advisors have called in chemical warfare experts and requested some basic protective gear and chemical analysis gear, just in case.

[citizen k]

What a fiasco. 

SYRIA -- U.S. officials say five Pentagon-trained fighters have been captured, probably by al-Nusra the al-Qaeda branch in Syria. The Pentagon has lost track of some of the fighters who apparently have scattered, reports CBS News' David Martin.

"It's a friggin' mess," one official said.

These fighters are part of the original band of 54 fighters sent into Syria. Their compound, which they share with another moderate opposition group known as Division 30, was attacked on July 31. That attack was repelled with the help of U.S. air strikes.

CBS News' Martin reports that in the late July attack, one Pentagon-trained fighter was killed and eight Division 30 fighters were wounded. 30 of the attackers, believed to be al-Nusra, were killed. It's not clear how the five were captured except that it was some time after the attack on the compound.

At a hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee in early July, Defense Secretary Ash Carter disclosed that a $500 million program to train 15,000 Syrian opposition fighters had gotten off to an embarrassingly slow start -- with just 60 recruits in training.

"I say the number 60 and I can look out at your faces and you have the same reaction I do, which is that's an awfully small number," Carter admitted.

Carter had said 7,000 Syrians volunteered, but they first must go through a screening process designed to weed out extremists and those who want to use American training and equipment not against ISIS, but against the Syrian regime of Bashar Al Assad -- a fight the U.S. wants no part of.

Some who make it through the screening quit the training and go home. Said one U.S. official, "We are failing miserably."

U.S. expanded its combat in Syria, launching airstrikes Friday to defend rebels under attack by the Nusra Front.

Capt. Jeff Davis says this is the first time the U.S. conducted defensive strikes against anyone other than Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants in Syria. Under current rules, the U.S. can conduct offensive strikes against ISIS, not Assad regime forces or others.

Meanwhile, a report by an independent monitoring group released Monday said U.S.-led airstrikes targeting ISIS have likely killed at least 459 civilians over the past year.

The report by Airwars, a project aimed at tracking the international airstrikes targeting the extremists, said it believed 57 specific strikes killed civilians and caused 48 suspected "friendly fire" deaths. It said the strikes have killed more than 15,000 ISIS militants.

In addition, the U.S. and Turkey are considering carving out a portion of northern Syria to become a haven or de facto safe zone for refugees and Western-backed rebels.

However, the White House is adamant that any joint efforts will not include the imposition of a militarily enforced no-fly zone.

Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesperson, underscored last week that they will not be working on a no-fly zone, and added that their recent talks with Turkey are an attempt to "deepen our cooperation, broadly."

The two countries have agreed to the shared goal of establishing an "ISIL-free zone" to ensure "greater security and stability along Turkey's border with Syria," a senior Obama administration official told CBS News, using an alternate acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).


http://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-officials-5-pentagon-trained-fighters-captured-in-syria/?ftag=YHF4eb9d17

[Crazy_Ivan80]

better support the Kurds. They should know that by now

[The Brain]

The less gear we give Iraq the less well armed ISIS will end up.

Maybe we should give them gear that self-destructs or breaks down after a few months.

Does the US even have any manufacturing industry left?

[KRonn]

  Carter had said 7,000 Syrians volunteered, but they first must go through a screening process designed to weed out extremists and those who want to use American training and equipment not against ISIS, but against the Syrian regime of Bashar Al Assad -- a fight the U.S. wants no part of.

I had thought the fighters were being trained to fight Assad, but I'm kind of glad that the training is to fight ISIS instead, as the idea of ousting Assad any "moderate" fighters would seem to be long gone. If Assad falls then Syria just becomes another failed state like Libya or Yemen, or actually would be a part of the ISIS state now regardless of any moderate faction.

[Razgovory]

The worst part in all of these is that I was actually thinking of going to Egypt to see the Pyramids.

These are the times that try men's souls. The summer tourist and the sunshine sightseer will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their vacation itinerary; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.

How else am I to live through my mid-life crisis amidst the ruins of civilizations bygone, reading Blake, Byron and Crowley.

You can go back to Paris, Berlin or London.

[Razgovory]

Muslim Brotherhood calls for rebellion. Guess that a military coup, followed by mass arrests and death squads causes your enemies to lash out violently! Who could have predicted this?

http://www.newsweek.com/muslim-brotherhood-calls-rebellion-against-egypts-president-following-death-349297

Well, al Sisi will take his kid gloves off now.

Only a Russian would consider mass murder "kid gloves".

[citizen k]

Muslim Brotherhood calls for rebellion. Guess that a military coup, followed by mass arrests and death squads causes your enemies to lash out violently! Who could have predicted this?

http://www.newsweek.com/muslim-brotherhood-calls-rebellion-against-egypts-president-following-death-349297

Well, al Sisi will take his kid gloves off now.

Only a Russian would consider mass murder "kid gloves".

Yeah, I don't think Sisi ever had "kid gloves".

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Only a Russian would consider mass murder "kid gloves".

I think Dguller was being sarcastic.

[DGuller]

Only a Russian would consider mass murder "kid gloves".

I think Dguller was being sarcastic.

[Razgovory]

Only a Russian would consider mass murder "kid gloves".

I think Dguller was being sarcastic.

It's a bit difficult to tell considering his sanguine attitude toward the earlier mass executions.

[DGuller]

Only a Russian would consider mass murder "kid gloves".

I think Dguller was being sarcastic.

It's a bit difficult to tell considering his sanguine attitude toward the earlier mass executions.

Yeah, sure.

[Eddie Teach]

It's a bit difficult to tell considering his sanguine attitude toward the earlier mass executions.

Hey, it's not like any lions were killed.