The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[LaCroix]

for the most part, aren't they now defensive in the east and offensive in the west? the long term situation seems pretty poor for ISIS

[jimmy olsen]

for the most part, aren't they now defensive in the east and offensive in the west? the long term situation seems pretty poor for ISIS

Given how badly Assad's regime has been floundering, and the inability of the Iraqi army to get their act together, I don't see how you can say that.

[LaCroix]

Given how badly Assad's regime has been floundering, and the inability of the Iraqi army to get their act together, I don't see how you can say that.

look at the level of support, though. assad won't fall because iran is (currently) determined to keep it propped up. the iraqi forces (whether military or militias), while still a mess, have already improved substantially from where they were at when this began. and both iran and the US are supporting iraq. the kurds, too, are receiving US support. then you have the arab states, the occasional israeli potshot, and the syrian rebels.

ISIS is essentially running on fumes and has been for much of this conflict. they've conquered lots of basically defenseless land, but they haven't really done anything amazing other than exploit momentary weaknesses. their equipment will last only so long before they really start hurting. they have to keep attacking because that's their major source of revenue/equipment. the east is no longer a viable option, so they've turned west. once the anti-ISIS forces in syria put up a defense that halts them, which is a question of when not if, then ISIS is fucked.

finally, it's very likely ISIS's own craziness is seriously hurting them re: foreign recruitment/support. it's more clear now than ever that ISIS is not the good guy. you could say this was obvious since the beginning, but I think those early days really offered a lot of romantic appeal to young men and women. ISIS took that romanticism and raped it into the ground. i suspect foreign recruiters these days are more likely thugs than earnest, occupy wall street types.

[jimmy olsen]

Their major source of revenue is taxation over it's ten million subjects. Their recruitment doesn't seem to have suffered at all.

Iraq has taken back a significant amout of land, but losing a city the size of Ramadi puts them in the negative for the year.

Assad's position will collapse before the year is out and the Rebel Alliance and ISIS will fight over Syria's carcass.

[jimmy olsen]

An airstrike has reportedly destroyed one ISIS largest carbomb factories.

http://www.rferl.org/content/iraq-air-strike-is-car-bomb-factory/27052737.html

[Syt]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/turkish-president-erdogan-threatens-editor-over-photos-showing-weapons-being-sent-to-syria-10290469.html

Turkish President Erdogan threatens editor over photos 'showing weapons being sent to Syria'

Istanbul's prosecutor's office is investigating a newspaper editor, after the publication he heads published images of truckloads of ammunition being transported from Turkey to Syria.

The Cumhuriyet newspaper has suggested that the images, published on 29 May but allegedly dating from 19 January 2014, prove that a Turkish intelligence mission was carrying arms to rebels in bordering war-torn Syria.

Can Dundar, chief editor of the Cumhuriyet daily newspaper, is now being investigated over allegations he breached anti-terrorism laws, the Anadolu Agency reported.

The images allegedly show local authorities stopping a convoy and opening crates which the Cumhuriyet claim were filled with weapons and ammunition. The search subsequently caused a standoff with intelligence officials.

However, Government officials have responded by insisting that the convoy contained humanitarian aid, and accused the staff who carried out the search of being involved in a conspiracy by US-based cleric Fetullah Gulen to destabilise the government.

The officials who ordered the search were arrested recently.

The investigation comes as campaigning for Turkey's parliamentary election enters its final week.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to make Dundar "pay a high price" for the publication of the images. In a television interview late on Sunday he accused the editor of engaging in "espionage" and said "he will pay a high price. I won't let him go."

"This slander and this illegitimate operation against the National Intelligence Organization [MİT] are, in a way, an act of espionage. This newspaper got involved in this espionage activity, too," Erdogan said during an interview on public broadcaster TRT, the Hurriyet Daily News reported.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

one islamist helping another islamist. Anyone surprised?

[Caliga]

Assad's position will collapse before the year is out and the Rebel Alliance and ISIS will fight over Syria's carcass.

Will the Rebel Alliance have: X-Wing fighters.

[LaCroix]

Their major source of revenue is taxation over it's ten million subjects. Their recruitment doesn't seem to have suffered at all.

Iraq has taken back a significant amout of land, but losing a city the size of Ramadi puts them in the negative for the year.

Assad's position will collapse before the year is out and the Rebel Alliance and ISIS will fight over Syria's carcass.

re: finances, http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/isis-inside-struggling-islamic-state-economy-iraq-syria-1495726

re: recruitment, while i don't know the numbers, i'd be surprised for reasons posted earlier if enthusiasm for ISIS has increased in the past few months rather than diminished.

i think assad's position will remain for as long as iran remains committed to keeping him around. like with iraq, i don't think the international community will allow syria to completely fall to ISIS.

[jimmy olsen]

Iran is sending anothrr 15,000 men! I'm sure they'll endear themselves to the Sunni majority.
Looks like they plan on focusing on the Rebel Alliance. This will further inflame secterian tensions and strengthen ISIS.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/Jun-04/300520-iran-sends-15000-fighters-to-syria.ashx

[Razgovory]

ISIS janissary corp is a go according to the Daily Miail

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3107010/500-children-kidnapped-ISIS-brainwashed-suicide-bombers-child-soldiers-Iraqi-official-reveals.html

It's like they have a checklist of every depraved act it is possible for a human to commit, and they are checking them off one by one.

I know their reputation, but still, that's a little hard on the Daily Mail don't you think?

[jimmy olsen]

ISIS janissary corp is a go according to the Daily Miail

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3107010/500-children-kidnapped-ISIS-brainwashed-suicide-bombers-child-soldiers-Iraqi-official-reveals.html

It's like they have a checklist of every depraved act it is possible for a human to commit, and they are checking them off one by one.

I know their reputation, but still, that's a little hard on the Daily Mail don't you think?

It's not just them though.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-kidnaps-up-to-500-children-in-iraq-to-use-as-suicide-bombers-and-child-soldiers-10288989.html

http://europe.newsweek.com/500-children-abducted-by-isis-could-be-trained-suicide-missions-328048

[jimmy olsen]

Better call in Jet Li and Jackie Chan, a two time Muay Thai world champion has joined ISIS!

https://twitter.com/cap_fall/status/606342057427386368/photo/1

[jimmy olsen]

The Sunnis in Iraq definitely think ISIS is winning and the big shots are starting to publicly declare their allegiance. The situation is getting worse all the time.

http://www.ibtimes.com/iraqi-sunni-sheikhs-anbar-pledge-allegiance-isis-aid-militant-group-1952644

https://twitter.com/sualbaghdadi/status/606395373507198976

[derspiess]

Tariq Aziz is dead.  Farewell, guy who looked like Larry Tate