The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[The Brain]

Relevant? It changes everything.

[Martinus]

Relevant? It changes everything.

Explain.

[The Brain]

Relevant? It changes everything.

Explain.

I dunno.

[mongers]

Just seen a BBC report where John Simpson interviews a recently captured failed ISIL suicide bomber, a boy aged 17, who said most recruited to be bombers were like him, aged 14-17 years old.

[jimmy olsen]

Heh, does anyone here really believe the Iraqi army will be able to retake Mosul?
Unless those Iraqi brigades are actually Iranian army brigades there's no way it'll happen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/world/battle-to-retake-iraqi-city-looms-as-test-of-obamas-isis-strategy.html?_r=0

[LaCroix]

Heh, does anyone here really believe the Iraqi army will be able to retake Mosul?
Unless those Iraqi brigades are actually Iranian army brigades there's no way it'll happen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/world/battle-to-retake-iraqi-city-looms-as-test-of-obamas-isis-strategy.html?_r=0

kurdish forces are within five miles of mosul metropolitan. if this article refers to that campaign, then yes, i think it's very possible.

[Martinus]

Just seen a BBC report where John Simpson interviews a recently captured failed ISIL suicide bomber, a boy aged 17, who said most recruited to be bombers were like him, aged 14-17 years old.

Yeah, saw snippets of it too. This whole ISIlL quagmire is a hell of a difficult situation. 

[The Brain]

Just seen a BBC report where John Simpson interviews a recently captured failed ISIL suicide bomber, a boy aged 17, who said most recruited to be bombers were like him, aged 14-17 years old.

Who will hire a failed suicide bomber?

[Martinus]

Just seen a BBC report where John Simpson interviews a recently captured failed ISIL suicide bomber, a boy aged 17, who said most recruited to be bombers were like him, aged 14-17 years old.

Who will hire a failed suicide bomber?

I think at least as many or more people as would hire a succesful one.

[Martinus]

It's one of those "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situations.

[grumbler]

It's one of those "damned bombed if you do, damned bombed if you don't" situations.

FTFY

[Sheilbh]

Don't want this to be an attack, Sheilbh, but what exactly is interesting about that piece that other pieces have not said already? So, he is arguing that ISIS's nuttery is modern, not medieval (like the other piece argued). What difference does it make? How is this in any way a relevant information?

It seems to me we are getting to the point when pieces like this serve no other purpose but to give commentators an opportunity to engage in some sort of circle jerk "I-know-Islam-better-than-thou" exercise - but the bottom line is that these are fanatics who believe this shit. I am not sure how, whether the shit is new or old, is relevant.

What do you mean by relevant though?

I think it's a useful addition to the Atlantic piece.

[jimmy olsen]

If true that the Iranians are sending so many troops over there, sounds like this could easily cause a regional free for all between the Iranians, Arab States, Israel and the Turks.

http://www.debka.com/article/24416/Iran-airlifts-thousands-of-Shiite-fighters-to-Syrian-port-of-Latakia-to-boost-Aleppo-warfront

Iran airlifts thousands of Shiite fighters to Syrian port of Latakia to boost Aleppo warfront

Debkafile's "exclusive military and intelligence sources have discovered a large-scale Iranian airlift is in progress for bringing thousands of Shiite fighters to the Syrian Mediterranean port of Latakia to reinforce the Syrian army forces falling back from the key city of Aleppo. Some of the flights are taking off from Baghdad airport. The Syrian rebels in heavy fighting Thursday and Friday, Feb. 19-20 repulsed a Hizballah-backed Syrian army offensive to recapture the town and took scores of Hizballah fighters prisoner.

The incoming reinforcements are being transferred directly to the Aleppo battle-front in an effort to stabilize it and reverse the Syrian army's retreat.The incoming reinforcements are made up of Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani Shiite militiamen.The fact that Tehran was able to raise this force in less than 24 hours from the Syrian army's defeat in Aleppo demonstrates Iran's total military and strategic commitment to swift action for averting a Syrian-Hizballah retreat from a key front of the four-year old civil war.

The Iranian planes are taking two routes to Syria, starting out either in Baghdad or Tehran. In Baghdad, they touch down in the military section of the international airport and collect the Iraqi Shiite militiamen destined for the Syrian battlefield. This step necessitated the consent of the Iraqi government and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. The Iranian operation therefore exposes two exceedingly disturbing developments which are causing Israel's army chiefs to burn the midnight oil: The fall of the Abadi government under Tehran's sway is one; and Iraq's direct involvement for the first time in the military actions of the Syrian civil war."

Debkafile's military experts extrapolate from Tehran's immediate readiness to transfer thousands of foreign troops into Syria to save Assad's army from retreat, that the same response is to be expected from a possible setback of the same alliance in South Syria - especially when Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers are leading a Syrian-Hizballah-Shiite drive to capture the Golan town of Quneitra across from Israel's lines.

Our sources add that President Barack Obama was in a position, had he wished, to intervene with Baghdad and hold back the Iranian troop airlift to Syria. This has not happened. The administration's inaction places it squarely behind Iran's military steps in the Middle East and its direct intervention in key trouble spots.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iranian-troops-besiege-israel-130k-basij-fighters-enter-syria-academic-study/

Iranian Troops Besiege Israel, 130k Basij Fighters to Enter Syria: Academic Study
2
By Al-Masdar News on February 21, 2015 Middle East

From the Mediterranean to the Golan, Iran builds active front and direct military presence on the Israel's border to deter and eliminate the Israeli Regime, according to an Israeli study published by the Middle East Media Research Institute.

The Israeli study concluded that 'Israel' faces a fateful crisis and that as much as it feared the Iranian nuclear program, it never imagined that Iran would be standing on its border even before its nuclear agreement with the Americans was complete.

The Iranian threat to 'Israel' is no longer theoretical, nor does it have anything to do with the entity's deterrent of using its nuclear weapons, which cannot be used considering the international power balance. The threat has become direct, practical and conventional, it added.

The study pointed out that Iran has based its deployment in Syria on the establishment of a new Hezbollah Syria organization along the lines of Hezbollah Lebanon, as well as on the direct presence of Iranian forces in Syria, particularly in the Golan Heights.

"Iran's deployment in Syria, and particularly the presence of its forces in the Golan Heights, at first only as command posts and a limited number of special forces, reveals a trend of Iranian activity in the region that is direct, not only by proxy as it has been to date. According to the Iranian plan, the command posts are meant to operate "130,000 trained Iranian Basij fighters waiting to enter Syria," as is evident from May 2014 statements by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) senior official Hussein Hamedani, that were censored and removed immediately after publication in Iran."

After the recent campaign in southern Syria, Iran's direct deployment in the Golan creates a single battle front against Israel from Rosh Hanikra to Quneitra, the study noted.

"Iran's aim in deploying in the Golan Heights is not only to deter Israel from acting against its nuclear program, defend Syria as part of the resistance axis, and establish an active front for anti-Israel terror attacks in the Golan and even liberate the Israeli Golan."

It also meshes with the Iranian regime's ideological perception of Israel as an entity that must be eliminated, as is evident in statements by Iranian Supreme Leader Imam Sayyed Ali Khamenei, the Israeli study stressed.

[CountDeMoney]

What do you mean by relevant though?

As in, is any of it relevant to how we kill the shit out of them.

[KRonn]

Heh, does anyone here really believe the Iraqi army will be able to retake Mosul?
Unless those Iraqi brigades are actually Iranian army brigades there's no way it'll happen.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/world/battle-to-retake-iraqi-city-looms-as-test-of-obamas-isis-strategy.html?_r=0

Not really. US marines and army took Fallujah and it was very tough fight, and Mosul is much larger. Though hopefully the Iraqis being trained have more going for them than we may know about. They'll need a lot of urban warfare training and mostly the resolve to stick it out as the going gets very tough. No idea if they'll have enough of that. I guess I can have some confidence though since the Kurds were able to retain their hold on Kobani over many months, with allied air support, so there should be hope for the Iraqis and Kurds combined in Mosul.