The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Martinus]

Good.

[The Minsky Moment]

As it were, I still live in a civilised society, where we can delegate fighting to a dedicated profession.

The same "dedicated profession" that you hold in utter contempt?

[Legbiter]

It'll be interesting to see if they go through with this, but given that they've made the statement that they'll execute the prisoners then they almost need to do it.

Maybe the Arab states of the region will, at some point, finally get off their duffs and start sending in large ground forces. It's like they're waiting for the US and Europe to do so but this is a nasty issue that's right next door and is a huge problem for them. They need some sort of military system similar to what the African Union has which just sent troops to Nigeria and does so in other African hot spots.

They are to be executed tomorrow at dawn.

http://news.yahoo.com/jordan-execute-female-bomber-wednesday-191536008.html

Good.

Kill them all.

[DGuller]

As it were, I still live in a civilised society, where we can delegate fighting to a dedicated profession.

The same "dedicated profession" that you hold in utter contempt?

What's so inconsistent?  You can have disdain for people serving you, but still be glad that there are people who exist to serve you.

[Jacob]

As it were, I still live in a civilised society, where we can delegate fighting to a dedicated profession.

The same "dedicated profession" that you hold in utter contempt?

What's so inconsistent?  You can have disdain for people serving you, but still be glad that there are people who exist to serve you.

I don't think the issue Minsky is pointing out is one of consistency.

[mongers]

I'm jolly glad at times like this I don't really indulge in popular social media sites, as I really don't want to see any of these recent images, which are apparently flying all over the place on these sites.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Something I'm starting to understand is just how important social media is as a recruitment tool for ISIS. I hear time and time again that radicalized youths are watching ISIS propaganda on YouTube. They view these beheading and torture videos on other sites (YouTube at least has the decency not to let that shit stay on the site.)

In WWII if a German propaganda plane had tried to drop leaflets over Allied territory--we'd shoot it down. I don't understand why we aren't doing anything to strike at ISIS propaganda ability. ISIS isn't making videos just to scare people, in fact I don't think that's really a motivation at all. They are making these snuff films to give something for disaffected angry young Muslim men to cheer about, and then join ISIS in its cause. I'm not sure what the shape of a strike against ISIS propaganda looks like, but I don't have a problem where, if we can link a video to a terrorist group we make it so streaming media sites cannot host that video. I understand the various free speech laws (strongest in the United States), but I don't mean videos simply advocating fundamentalist Muslim values, but recruitment videos for an enemy force are not protected by free speech laws. The courts would not have stopped the government from doing something about say, Germans trying to recruit Americans to be double agents using video reels or something. No way people would have been allowed to freely disseminate that shit to the public.

I understand there are probably technological hurdles, but we're not talking about smart hacker kids. We're talking about ignorant young people finding forums and sites with beheadings. Shut that shit down with some sort of legal take down, or even better use some of our tens of billions of dollars we invest into agencies like the NSA for things like cyber warfare and just shut these forums and websites down. If 3-4 guys can shut down Xbox Live and Playstation Network for days around Christmas I can't believe the NSA can't put out of operation jihadist recruitment websites/forums. And given that these guys are not super hackers or anything I don't think they recover from it that easily. Remember, their recruitment efforts are aimed at mostly dumb 15-25 year old men, who if the sites aren't super available and easy to find, probably aren't going to know how to find more esoteric gathering places. I bet a lot of them would be lost if they had to use something like IRC (which wouldn't have video and pics to look at), and that requires downloading software not already installed on most computers.

[Admiral Yi]

On CNN the reporter said the protest in Amman over the burning was "in the hundreds," which is perhaps not that encouraging.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I agree with that Otto. It's recruitment propaganda.

[mongers]

Otto, there's a lot in what you say. I too am aware of the role played by social media, but can't grasp the immediacy and the impact it has on the target youth. 

I will say that with various protest groups I've encountered, especially where the educational attainment of those involved is a broad cross-section of the population, you find youtube and videos far more influential, even if they have to watch 30 minutes of the stuff, than say a one or two page somewhat dry article on website, comprehension of which seems beyond some of them.

[mongers]

On CNN the reporter said the protest in Amman over the burning was "in the hundreds," which is perhaps not that encouraging.

Well earlier I was watching a Lebanese journalist/analyst being interview and she said, prior to the protest, it wasn't clear if it would swing against the King's government for taking part in the war or form up behind him demanding a strong response and retribution/revenge.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, I agree with that Otto. It's recruitment propaganda.

Yeah, but also wider propaganda. It's for recruitment but also an attempt to scare potential interveners - like us or Jordan - and their opponents/people in 'their' territory.

I also remember Daniel Pearl and other beheadings getting widespread coverage. But I think they were less coordinated and propagandistic than ISIS is. I remember them being individual outrages whereas this clearly isn't.

Otto, there's a lot in what you say. I too am aware of the role played by social media, but can't grasp the immediacy and the impact it has on the target youth. 

I read a piece saying the three types of fighters ISIS have tend to be sort-of psycopaths, true believers and pragmatist. Overwhelmingly I'd guess the Western youth fall into that first category. They're there for the violence and this sort of propaganda will work for them.

[Jacob]

Yeah, but also wider propaganda. It's for recruitment but also an attempt to scare potential interveners - like us or Jordan - and their opponents/people in 'their' territory.

Is the scaring part going to work?

[OttoVonBismarck]

A lot of the local recruits are largely joining up because they see it as "be one of the guys with a gun, or one of the guys without" and ISIS pays far better than the other fighting groups in the area. In fact many have deliberately left various other groups to join ISIS because ISIS gives them amnesties, solely because ISIS pays much much better. Those guys aren't getting recruited over YouTube and probably have limited or no Internet access in a Syrian refugee camp or wherever they live, but the Western recruits are I suspect massively fueled by social media spread propaganda, particularly videos.

[Sheilbh]

Is the scaring part going to work?

I think there's two elements to it. On the one hand it's for scaring their opponents. It might work. I think their brutality is probably as helpful in causing Iraqi regiments to collapse as causing the Kurds to dig in. If you know what they'll do to if they get you then I'd guess you'll either run away or fight to the death.

The other side is scaring the communities, the tribes, the villages in their territory or that they take over. And I think that's likely to be very successful. Would you rise up against a group like this?

As for us or Jordan, maybe. I can see it prompting a reluctance to send ground troops - though Western reluctance has other sources too.