The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[grumbler]

ISIS would not exist were it not for the (failed) Irak war and the 'Arab Spring turned nightmare' encouraged by the US and their allies...

This.

Mere wishful thinking.  You and Gral need to get over this idea that everything in the world revolves around what "the US and their allies" do.  ISIS is simply the most successful of any number of similar movements that have sprung up since long before the US was concerned with the Middle East.  It is no accident that the ISIS movement is most successful in the Arab countries were the Soviets had the most influence.

[alfred russel]

Mere wishful thinking.  You and Gral need to get over this idea that everything in the world revolves around what "the US and their allies" do. 

Ad hom followed by a strawman. Classic grumbler.

For those following at home, I don't have the idea that everything in the world revolves around what the US and their allies do. However, I do think that the situation in Iraq was significantly influenced by our actions over the last 25 years or so. I'm open to alternative viewpoints on that, but I must admit convincing me otherwise may be difficult.

[Tamas]

Still no scary disease or Jews involved, so non-news, sorry.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm confused about the Arab Spring bit.
Yes the US supported (purely verbally) the regime change in Tunisia - clearly that is not strengthening ISIS.
The US also gave moral support to the demonstrators in Egypt; even if one views that episode negatively, the current regime is essential back to status quo ante - again no link to ISIS.
The overthrow of the regime in Libya also seems to have no connection, and the US mostly sat that one out anyways.

The Syrian Civil War is connected to the expansion of ISIS but that conflict's connection to the "Arab Spring" movements in other countries is not entirely clear - it was more a mutiny by various military units.  In any case, the problem there was not US support - which was non-existent for the first two years.  Lack of US support to the right groups when it could have mattered OTOH may have contributed.

[alfred russel]

I'm confused about the Arab Spring bit.

I was really focused on two things:
1) the war in Iraq bit
2) passive aggressively continuing my years old argument with Berkut that the arab spring in Egypt may not be a positive development that we should support

[Viking]

I'm confused about the Arab Spring bit.
Yes the US supported (purely verbally) the regime change in Tunisia - clearly that is not strengthening ISIS.
The US also gave moral support to the demonstrators in Egypt; even if one views that episode negatively, the current regime is essential back to status quo ante - again no link to ISIS.
The overthrow of the regime in Libya also seems to have no connection, and the US mostly sat that one out anyways.

The Syrian Civil War is connected to the expansion of ISIS but that conflict's connection to the "Arab Spring" movements in other countries is not entirely clear - it was more a mutiny by various military units.  In any case, the problem there was not US support - which was non-existent for the first two years.  Lack of US support to the right groups when it could have mattered OTOH may have contributed.

Endorsing the right of people to have a say in their own government gets conspiracy theorized as some sort of plot to do something dastardly involving the Muslim Brotherhood to do something dastardly.. but unspecified.

Conspiracy theorists can't be democrats since the other party is always doing something dastardly.. but unspecified. Giving a people without democratic social institutions and a respect for democratic values will only result in one vote once.

The Syrian people did lose their fear of Assad, much to their discomfort.

Whatever you want to say about the Arab Spring, it boils down to a temporary loss of fear. Tunis and Egypt were fully dependent on the west and consequently couldn't massacre their populace. Saudi and Bahrain have oil so they could massacre their people but since they could bribe them as well they had a carrot and stick. Syria only had the stick so the shit hit the fan given the arab view of honour and chauvinism.

[DGuller]

I'm confused about the Arab Spring bit.
Yes the US supported (purely verbally) the regime change in Tunisia - clearly that is not strengthening ISIS.
The US also gave moral support to the demonstrators in Egypt; even if one views that episode negatively, the current regime is essential back to status quo ante - again no link to ISIS.
The overthrow of the regime in Libya also seems to have no connection, and the US mostly sat that one out anyways.

The Syrian Civil War is connected to the expansion of ISIS but that conflict's connection to the "Arab Spring" movements in other countries is not entirely clear - it was more a mutiny by various military units.  In any case, the problem there was not US support - which was non-existent for the first two years.  Lack of US support to the right groups when it could have mattered OTOH may have contributed.

The Syrian Civil War may have given a spark to ISIS, but rotted out Iraq is what launched it into prominence.  The fact that Iraq is a failed state unwilling to protect itself can be attributed to us at least in part.

[Valmy]

Would Saddam have been that much better?  I mean post first Gulf War.

[alfred russel]

The Syrian people did lose their fear of Assad, much to their discomfort.

A lot of times people talk about overcoming their fears, helping others to overcome their fears, etc. I rarely hear people first stop to question whether a fear should be overcome.

I try to teach this to my younger cousins. Other adults just try to do things like, for example, not be scared of sleeping without a night light. I challenge this. "Why are you scared to sleep without a nightlight? To keep the boogeyman away? Are you sure you want to take the risk of sleeping without a nightlight when that may be what is keeping the boogeyman away? But actually, how do you even know that the boogeyman is scared of light? Maybe he isn't scared of light, and has just been waiting to grab you because he is waiting for you to fatten up a little, and one day when your parents go to sleep will grab you, light or no light."

[DGuller]

I teach kids to overcome their fear of taking candy from stranger adults. 

[Viking]

Would Saddam have been that much better?  I mean post first Gulf War.

No, Syria is today what Iraq would have been if Uday and Qusay had had to organize the running of that country.

[Viking]

The Syrian people did lose their fear of Assad, much to their discomfort.

A lot of times people talk about overcoming their fears, helping others to overcome their fears, etc. I rarely hear people first stop to question whether a fear should be overcome.

I try to teach this to my younger cousins. Other adults just try to do things like, for example, not be scared of sleeping without a night light. I challenge this. "Why are you scared to sleep without a nightlight? To keep the boogeyman away? Are you sure you want to take the risk of sleeping without a nightlight when that may be what is keeping the boogeyman away? But actually, how do you even know that the boogeyman is scared of light? Maybe he isn't scared of light, and has just been waiting to grab you because he is waiting for you to fatten up a little, and one day when your parents go to sleep will grab you, light or no light."

No, they didn't think dentist Assad would be as bad as "Butcher of Hama" Assad. They thought he'd chicken out like Ben Ali or Mubarak. They were wrong.

[The Minsky Moment]

Would Saddam have been that much better?  I mean post first Gulf War.

No, Syria is today what Iraq would have been if Uday and Qusay had had to organize the running of that country.

Likely, though perhaps that is even a favorable scenario.
Saddam would have been 77 today if he had lived, and as of 2003, there was little evidence of careful and methodical succession planning.

[Viking]

Would Saddam have been that much better?  I mean post first Gulf War.

No, Syria is today what Iraq would have been if Uday and Qusay had had to organize the running of that country.

Likely, though perhaps that is even a favorable scenario.
Saddam would have been 77 today if he had lived, and as of 2003, there was little evidence of careful and methodical succession planning.

I'm not arguing that an orderly succession would happen. I'm merely observing that Uday and Qusay were psychopaths without any history of caution.

[grumbler]

Mere wishful thinking.  You and Gral need to get over this idea that everything in the world revolves around what "the US and their allies" do. 

Ad hom followed by a strawman. Classic grumbler.

You might want to look up the meaning of ad hom (aka "argumentum ad hominem") before you misuse it again.  "Classic grumbler" is an example of an ad hom (as it refers to me, not to my argument).  The second part was, of course, a well-placed strawman.  Nothing wrong with a strawman when it obviously isn't meant seriously.