The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Zanza]

Is ISIS just a proxy for Saudi Wahabbism?

[Sheilbh]

Iraqi Air Force trying to stop ISIS columns advancing on Samarra, apparently.

If there's one thing the Iraqi military excel at, it's a dramatic collapse.

[DGuller]

I guess we should start larding up the helicopter skids.

[mongers]

Iraqi Air Force trying to stop ISIS columns advancing on Samarra, apparently.

If there's one thing the Iraqi military excel at, it's a dramatic collapse.

Tikrit has now fallen and there's actual fighting inside Samarra reported.


You know what this reminds me of Vietnam Spring 1975, I'm not saying the government/regime will completely collapse, but the way the large and diverse security forces are just crumbling/melting away is reminiscent of those days. 

[mongers]

Is ISIS just a proxy for Saudi Wahabbism?

Nothing as clearcut or explicit as that, but there'll be some Saudi and Gulf money in there, whether direct or money/weapons supposed for Syria ending up in Iraq.

[MadImmortalMan]

Turkey has called for emergency NATO meetings.

[citizen k]

Gulf money? We don't need no stinking Gulf money!

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mosul-seized-jihadis-loot-429m-citys-central-bank-make-isis-worlds-richest-terror-force-1452190

[Sheilbh]

Well remember that in 2003 the politics are not necessarily in favour of a long-lasting settlement either. You've just sold a war as liberating the Shia and Kurds from Sunni tyranny, and then you start arming and working with the Sunni tribes? Political disaster. Whatever strategy you have in 2003, you're still working in what is essentially a security vacuum, unless you take the very bold step of retaining the Iraqi military and bureaucracy in some form. (Which is what I would have advocated in any occupation plan: keep the air conditioners running and order on the streets.) But this is not without risks; it's not hard to imagine the Shia rejecting peace in this counterfactual.

What Iraq really shows is how difficult, if not practically impossible, it is to reconstruct a functioning state after a 'kick the door down' regime change that had no national political settlement either preceding or in parallel to it. Something we've learnt yet again in Libya, so this is very much a mistake the Brits and French make too, I'll say in the interest of being impartial.

I think it's very hard as Westerners from comfortable societies to really understand the fear that grips people and communities in these sorts of situations, and how identity politics - no matter how irrational we perceive them to be - can really subvert what to the outsider seems the rational solution.

I don't remember the run-up to the war being that sectarian, if anything that would show a dangerous almost Arabist amount of local knowledge. I remember it being generally naive, but certainly that the Shia and Kurds would benefit the most.

Adopting the surge and the Awakening at the start wouldn't work as you say. But there should have been an awareness that there was going to be a security vacuum and the potential for ethnic and sectarian reprisals and a flexibility. Petraeus built his reputation as a creative local commander getting security in Mosul of all places, there was a lack of creativity or willingness to admit the need to change approach (see Basra) for far too long.

There were different ways of dealing with that post-war situation: a far larger occupation, retaining some of the Iraqi army, maybe almost a federalisation of security where you deliberately bring in the tribes to keep things running. I don't think Iraq was doomed to fail because of intrinsic flaws in Iraqi society, but I think the negligence of Coalition leaders until there were political consequences at home made it almost impossible to succeed.

I agree on needing a political process before hand or during, but again I think the time when the Coalition had maximum ability to do that was at the start, when they had minimum interest in it. By 2006 all the US could do was provide enough security for a political process they were now a bit player in.

I also agree on the difficulty of trying to imagine yourself into that position. But I don't really think Iraq is that irrational or needs big leaps. I think the Kurds, Sunni and Shia all have points you can see. If you're an oppressed majority then too right you want revenge and the chance to rule the (united) state.

[Sheilbh]

Is ISIS just a proxy for Saudi Wahabbism?

What do you mean?

Tikrit has now fallen and there's actual fighting inside Samarra reported.

Samarra's had fighting for a while. ISIS have used hit and run attacks (briefly occupy a neighbourhood, raise the flag, then disappear) there for the last couple of months. Apparently to demoralise the security forces and Sunni neighbourhoods.

Lots of rumours about al-Duri again, especially now Tikrit's fallen (to forces in American humvees). They're also reportedly right at the gates of Iraq's biggest refinery.

In other news the Revolutionary Guard have been put on highest alert (and reportedly Iran are now far more worried about Iraq than Syria) and Moqtada al-Sadr's calling for the creation of 'peace brigades' to protect Shia holy sites in Iraq.

Edit: And as in Mosul they've opened the prisons, hundreds are free. According to reports the locals are cheering and singing them along, which is hardly surprising in Saddam's home town.

[mongers]

....
Security sources said ISIL militants on Wednesday drove more than 60 vehicles into Tikrit, the home town of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, occupying the provincial government headquarters and raising the black flag of ISIL.

"Our forces were caught by surprise, they never expected ISIL would use police and army Humvee vehicles, we mistook them for government forces and it was too late to stop them," said a police captain who fled from Tikrit to Samarra.

"We are fighting devils and not ordinary people"
....

[Sheilbh]

Are they wearing skirts?

[derspiess]

Moqtada al-Sadr's calling for the creation of 'peace brigades' to protect Shia holy sites in Iraq.

  Good old Muqi

[Zanza]

Is ISIS just a proxy for Saudi Wahabbism?

What do you mean?

Whether ISIS is funded and maybe even partially controlled by Saudi interests.

[derspiess]

Anybody got a map of what territory ISIS currently controls?

[Sheilbh]

Whether ISIS is funded and maybe even partially controlled by Saudi interests.

I don't think they fund or they certainly don't have any control of them (no-one controls them really, they've split with al-Qaeda and attack al-Qaeda associated groups in Syria, even though they started as al-Qaeda in Iraq), for example there's reports of ISIS and al-Qaeda in Yemen plotting attacks in Saudi. ISIS have also published a list of preachers who may be killed, they're mostly conservative clerics in Saudi who have condemned them/sided with other Islamists in Syria.

I have no idea on the funding. Everyone seems to accuse everyone else of supporting them. The Kurds have alleged the Turks helped kickstart them; the opposition have said Iran and the Syrian government did (ISIS tend to eliminate other opposition forces in a region before they turn on Assad-forces). Al-Jazeera Arabic apparently is very anti-ISIS and pro other forces like al-Nusra which suggests the Qataris aren't funding them, likewise Saudi TV. There's also suggestions that well-off figures in the Gulf, but not states have supported them.

One possibility is that they're largely self-funding. They seem to spend a lot of time taking checkpoints and areas near border crossings where they can impose a tax, they've been known to brutally attack tribes who oppose their presence in a region to better enable them to extort or kidnap travellers on the roads. Clearly they seized a lot of money in Mosul. Generally they don't seem to have much beef with the Kurds, but they fought like hell to drive them out of an oil field so they probably get some money from that. Unlike most of the other rebels (and al-Qaeda) they seem to really be trying to create an 'Islamic State'. They're building an Emirate complete with tax collection, duties, contiguous territory, military strongholds and all the rest.

It's one of the reasons they're a little scary, their current 'Islamic State' is rather a challenge to the post-WW1 settlement in the Middle East and if that's opened then we're in for hell and will need an Arab Westphalia.