The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[Tamas]

Apparently these guys have just conquered Mosul and now control Nineveh in general.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-27778112

I guess with some guys making Al Qaeda of the 2000s blush ripping out oil-rich parts of Iraq plus parts of Syria to make it their own turf will be the crown jewel in the epic fuckup that was the US intervention in Iraq.

[Berkut]

Meh. While there is no doubt that the US intervention in Iraq was a fuckup of epic proportions, it's not like NOT intervening would have resulted in anything better.

[Tamas]

Meh. While there is no doubt that the US intervention in Iraq was a fuckup of epic proportions, it's not like NOT intervening would have resulted in anything better.

In due time Saddam's regime would have collapsed into pretty much what we have now, I fully agree. However, lots of American and allied lives would have been spared, along with America's reputation and general goodwill which accumulated after 9/11.

[garbon]

along with America's reputation and general goodwill which accumulated after 9/11.

Until the next reason to hate us happened.

[DGuller]

Meh. While there is no doubt that the US intervention in Iraq was a fuckup of epic proportions, it's not like NOT intervening would have resulted in anything better.

It could've saved us thousands of lives, a couple of trillions of dollars, unquantifiable international reputation, and preserved our willingness to credibly threaten intervention when it really is warranted.  It doesn't sound like much, but it adds up.

[jimmy olsen]

The Kurds will kick them out eventually.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The Kurds will kick them out eventually.

maybe the turks will get their military adventure after all

[Valmy]

Ah well it is just a matter of time before these dudes take over.

[Valmy]

Until the next reason to hate us happened.

We made everybody who was a close ally of us regret it with that Iraq invasion.  Probably not the best international strategy.

[Sheilbh]

Inevitably there's lots of rumours around. Two of the most striking are that this was lead by ex-members of the Iraqi Army (1st Mosul) and that they're about to announce Izzat al-Duri (the king of clubs) as the 'governor' of Iraq. He was reported, by Petraeus, as having been based in Syria so it wouldn't be a massive surprise.

Also worrying is that apparently US-trained security forces fled more or less as soon as the battle began, so there now are calls for the Kurds to try and re-take the city. There are also reports that ISIS have managed to seize fighter jets and helicopters that were in Mosul airport.

It's far more significant than the capture of Fallujah and Anbar. I think, based on what's out there now, it's difficult to overstate the importance of this in terms of the region's security and conflicts. Grim

maybe the turks will get their military adventure after all

Thirty Turkish truck drivers have been captured which is a problem for them.

[Berkut]

Meh. While there is no doubt that the US intervention in Iraq was a fuckup of epic proportions, it's not like NOT intervening would have resulted in anything better.

In due time Saddam's regime would have collapsed into pretty much what we have now, I fully agree. However, lots of American and allied lives would have been spared, along with America's reputation and general goodwill which accumulated after 9/11.

That is sort of correct, I think, but I don't really buy the idea that the world had some reservoir of "good will" towards America that was all used up.

By and large, other people attitudes towards the US are driven by factors like nationalism, self-interest, and ignorance. What America does or does not do is used to justify whatever notions other countries and people wish to have anyway, excepting of course where people are more directly influenced by US actions, like say in Afghanistan or Pakistan or Israel.

[Sheilbh]

I'd rather self-interested, venal allies like the UK, France and Australia than directly influenced but pretty independent countries like Pakistan or Israel.

[jimmy olsen]

If the Kurds can't kick them out, the Iranians will help the Shia and they would be able to hold against them.

[Berkut]

I'd rather self-interested, venal allies like the UK, France and Australia than directly influenced but pretty independent countries like Pakistan or Israel.

Well, yeah. Unfortunately, neither the UK, France, or Australia happen to be located adjacent to Afghanistan. Geography is a bitch like that...

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. I just mean direct influence I think is over-rated. It doesn't seem to do a lot of good when a country's political leaders don't care: see Israel, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq etc.