The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant Megathread

[KRonn]

We're now seeing news reports that others have signed on with the Saudis to support or send troops and conduct airstrikes. Gulf states UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain. Also Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan. Now Iran is saying that they're going to cause more upset in the nation! Nah, this is a proxy war against Iran as the Iranians have been pushing and pushing further and now the other (Sunni) nations are worried enough about it to strike back. Of course, they'll still also have ISIS and AQ to deal with there.

[viper37]

We're now seeing news reports that others have signed on with the Saudis to support or send troops and conduct airstrikes. Gulf states UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain. Also Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan. Now Iran is saying that they're going to cause more upset in the nation! Nah, this is a proxy war against Iran as the Iranians have been pushing and pushing further and now the other (Sunni) nations are worried enough about it to strike back. Of course, they'll still also have ISIS and AQ to deal with there.

it really looks like another Cold War, this time between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with their proxy states.

[Malthus]

We're now seeing news reports that others have signed on with the Saudis to support or send troops and conduct airstrikes. Gulf states UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain. Also Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan. Now Iran is saying that they're going to cause more upset in the nation! Nah, this is a proxy war against Iran as the Iranians have been pushing and pushing further and now the other (Sunni) nations are worried enough about it to strike back. Of course, they'll still also have ISIS and AQ to deal with there.

it really looks like another Cold War, this time between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with their proxy states.

Something of the sort, though more multi-sided. Sunni vs. Sh'ite mixed with a buch of other variations.

It boggles my mind how there is a persistent thread of insistence that the "middle eastern conflict" is all about Arab vs. Israeli. That was never true and it is self-evidently just a sideshow at this point. Sure everyone in the ME more of less hates Israelis, or at least pays lip service to hating Israel, but they just don't really care all that much - they have more immediate and pressing concerns!

The Israelis are mostly concentrating on stealing as much land as they can get away with, yard by yard, from the Palestinians (whom everyone in the ME, to be honest, also hates, but must pay lip service to). The Israelis have no larger ambitions, unlike ISIS and the Iranians. Sure, the Israelis have spies everywhere, and carry out the odd assassination, but they aren't funding rebel militia groups or invading their neighbours any more.

[Berkut]

The West in general is a sideshow to the overall internal Islamic conflict. It is the "Great Satan" so in the propaganda war everyone wants to get in their shots to show how serious they are about opposing the evil west, but it really has very little to do with the west overall.

Which is why we need to fight it as such - not as a conflict of "we must defend ourselves from the crazy Muslims!" but as a "How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

The problem with that is that it means we are going to have to be smart about how we respond to the attacks where the radicals are trying to draw in the West directly against them. That is what they want, and it is the emotive response to an attack. We have to respond to those who attack us by NOT doing what they want to accomplish with the attack...

[derspiess]

"How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

Let it drag out for as long as possible.  The longer it runs, the more radicals on each side will die, and one would hope people on all sides will grow weary of violence.

[Malthus]

The West in general is a sideshow to the overall internal Islamic conflict. It is the "Great Satan" so in the propaganda war everyone wants to get in their shots to show how serious they are about opposing the evil west, but it really has very little to do with the west overall.

Which is why we need to fight it as such - not as a conflict of "we must defend ourselves from the crazy Muslims!" but as a "How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

The problem with that is that it means we are going to have to be smart about how we respond to the attacks where the radicals are trying to draw in the West directly against them. That is what they want, and it is the emotive response to an attack. We have to respond to those who attack us by NOT doing what they want to accomplish with the attack...

Yup. Difficult to do in practice, though.

[Malthus]

"How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

Let it drag out for as long as possible.  The longer it runs, the more radicals on each side will die, and one would hope people on all sides will grow weary of violence.

Sadly, it doesn't seem to work that way. Radicalism tends to beget more of the same.

[KRonn]

The problem with that is that it means we are going to have to be smart about how we respond to the attacks where the radicals are trying to draw in the West directly against them. That is what they want, and it is the emotive response to an attack. We have to respond to those who attack us by NOT doing what they want to accomplish with the attack...

This is a very good point IMO. Such as vs ISIS, if the US and Euros get involved too fully and without enough Arab nations taking part, then ISIS spins it as Islam against the west and gains more supporters. This is why I'm so happy to see the Muslim nations of the region start taking on more of the battles against ISIS, and now even against Iran a bit more directly by going after an Iranian proxy.

On top of it all is the Sunni-Shia conflict and I think finally the Sunni nations have a chance and desire to act out vs Iran. Plus they have their own Sunni radicals to deal with in ISIS. It was huge IMO to see Egypt, Jordan, UAE and others make air attacks on ISIS, and for Egypt to call for an Arab ground force to take part, for the nations to get more involved. That blew away the ISIS notion that its acting for fellow Muslims or acting against the US\West.

[PJL]

The West in general is a sideshow to the overall internal Islamic conflict. It is the "Great Satan" so in the propaganda war everyone wants to get in their shots to show how serious they are about opposing the evil west, but it really has very little to do with the west overall.

Which is why we need to fight it as such - not as a conflict of "we must defend ourselves from the crazy Muslims!" but as a "How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

The problem with that is that it means we are going to have to be smart about how we respond to the attacks where the radicals are trying to draw in the West directly against them. That is what they want, and it is the emotive response to an attack. We have to respond to those who attack us by NOT doing what they want to accomplish with the attack...

Probably the best way is to interfere in it as little as possible, unless it threatens Western interests directly or groups sympathetic to the West. Which is more or less what we're doing right now. Hopefully if it becomes a long and drawn out affair it will moderate the radicals on all sides.

[derspiess]

"How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

Let it drag out for as long as possible.  The longer it runs, the more radicals on each side will die, and one would hope people on all sides will grow weary of violence.

Sadly, it doesn't seem to work that way. Radicalism tends to beget more of the same.

You need to think long-term. Short-term, you're right.

[KRonn]

The West in general is a sideshow to the overall internal Islamic conflict. It is the "Great Satan" so in the propaganda war everyone wants to get in their shots to show how serious they are about opposing the evil west, but it really has very little to do with the west overall.

Which is why we need to fight it as such - not as a conflict of "we must defend ourselves from the crazy Muslims!" but as a "How do we go about influencing the conflict so the eventual winners are more likely to be non-radicals?"

The problem with that is that it means we are going to have to be smart about how we respond to the attacks where the radicals are trying to draw in the West directly against them. That is what they want, and it is the emotive response to an attack. We have to respond to those who attack us by NOT doing what they want to accomplish with the attack...

Probably the best way is to interfere in it as little as possible, unless it threatens Western interests directly or groups sympathetic to the West. Which is more or less what we're doing right now. Hopefully if it becomes a long and drawn out affair it will moderate the radicals on all sides.

Gaddafi would maybe have been quite effective vs ISIS and supporting his neighbors in the other battles going on that the region is facing, and in Nigeria vs Boko Haram.

[KRonn]

Ok now, the Mid East is just even more chaotic, dangerous and I think maybe much more so than we figure, certainly more than I figured.

Sunni nations - an alliance of Saudis, Egypt, Gulf Arab nations(UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait), Pakistan and Jordan are going to be directly attacking Shias in Yemen backed by Iran, also ISIS but mainly vs the Shias/Iran proxies. Jordan may hold off since they're engaged against ISIS elsewhere. The US and I assume many European allies are backing (morally, on paper) their friends, the Sunni nations against the Shias. Incidentally, this is all going on seemingly with little or no consultation with the US or Euros. Nations friendly with the west (Saudis, Egypt, etc.) are going it on their own. That's good but also means that the US/Europe have little say in events, little control.

Meanwhile on an opposite spectrum from Yemen, kind of a 180, the US is backing the Shia backed regime in Iraq against ISIS Sunnis. Now for the most part the US says it's doing airstrikes to support only the Iraqi troops but that's a tricky wire to balance on given that Iraq and Iran are working together on the ground.

While this somewhat duplicitous course is going on the US and some Euro nations are negotiating with Iran over its nuke program. So on the one hand we're trying for a treaty yet our Arab friends are aligned against Iran in Yemen and the US is also trying to avoid the vision of working with Iran vs ISIS.

As a significant side note, the Sunni nations (Saudis, Egypt, Gulf States, etc.) have been meeting together and who's to know if they have larger plans against Iran, being very wary of Iran getting nukes? Saudis have been talking with Pakistan, probably about buying nukes because they're going to arm themselves if they feel Iran is going nuclear.

And of course no one has any strong feelings that Iran won't continue to work on nukes, or at least get to the ability to make nukes if they deem it necessary. The Saudis and one or two others, like Egypt, may look to get nukes if Iran proceeds on their course to get them.

This whole thing just got so much more complex and strange. Where before it was seen that ISIS was the main threat, now it's all so much more.

[Sheilbh]

I imagine that as in Syria many of the Sunni camp will be in many ways backing ISIS who seem to have potential in Yemen as AQAP are seen as having totally failed against the Shia threat.

To complicate it even more there's a significant split within the Sunni camp. It was most visible in Egypt where the Saudis and most of the GCC supported the Egyptian military and Salafists, while Qatar and Turkey support the Muslim Brotherhood. But it exists throughout the politics of the region.

To complicate the Cold War metaphor, Qatar or Turkey sort of play the role of China to Saudi's USSR

Edit: Or, basically, this:

[KRonn]

Lol Sheilbh, that really sorts it all out nicely!    

[Monoriu]

I like the "Israel and Palestine were discounted for the sake of simplicity" line.  Someday I'm going to have to steal that when I make powerpoint slides