News from Iran? Good? Bad? Who knows?

[KRonn]

Government crackdown continues to smash the, by now small, street demonstrations. As the article opines, no longer a rule by consent, now a rule by force? I guess it's a true thug-ocracy now, though for me it was hard to tell the difference before. But the govt did have more legitimacy, the ruling religious leaders included. That must likely get changed in all this. We'll see - I never expected much change, nor any kind of western democracy to break out, but it still seems as if Iran has turned a corner and no going back, for what ever way that brings. Will be a nastier govt there, for a long or short while anyway. Guess it depends on what effects the thugs have, possibly effects not as they expect?

Mousavi's wife speaking out. I've read also some threats of strikes, which supposedly would have some impact, possibly serious, depending on how that goes. I assume the govt thugs would crush those too - they seem to have gained their confidence back to brutalize their fellow citizens. Then perhaps more workers would strike - I guess the govt goons can just continue to imprison and/or beat up, or kill, more and more people... How will that work out for them?   

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article6571608.ece

Riot police crush protests in Tehran amid allegations of brutality

t was a far cry from the massive demonstrations of last week. Today, just a few hundred protesters converged on Baharestan Square, opposite the Iranian Parliament, and they were brutally repulsed.

It was an exercise in courageous futility, not a contest. Thousands of riot police and militiamen flooded the area. They used teargas, batons and overwhelming force. Helicopters hovered overhead. Nobody was allowed to stop or to gather, let alone exercise their constitutional right to protest.

A video clip posted on YouTube showed young men and women, their faces concealed behind bandanas, throwing stones by a burning barricade and chanting "Death to the Dictator".

Twitter was flooded with lurid messages. "They pull away the dead — like factory — no human can do this," said one. "They catch people with mobile — so many killed today — so many injured," said another. "In Baharestan we saw militia with axe chopping ppl like meat — blood everywhere," said a third.

There was no way of confirming such reports. It was unclear how many people were injured and arrested, or whether anyone was killed. The handful of foreign reporters left in Tehran are barred from rallies, and all but the bravest Iranians now steer well clear of them.

All that can be said for certain is the regime has finally recaptured the streets through strength of numbers and the unrestrained use of violence. Thirty years after the Iranian revolution it no longer rules with consent, but with military might, and it is cracking down with all means at its disposal.

"Neither the system nor the people will give in to pressures at any price," Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, declared on state-controlled television today. "I will insist on implementation of the law."

Saeed Mortazavi, an Iranian prosecutor notorious for his abuse of prisoners, has been put in charge of arresting and investigating dissidents.

Mr Mortazavi has a long record of involvement in cases of torture, illegal detention and extracting false confessions, Human Rights Watch said. "The leading role of Saeed Mortazavi in the cracksdown of Tehran should set off alarm bells," it said.

Government officials, conservative politicians and hardline newspapers are pressing for the arrest of Mir Hossein Mousavi, the former prime minister who claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidential election victory was rigged.

One newspaper, Vatan Emrouz, which supports Mr Ahmadinejad, ran a front-page picture of the former prime minister beneath the headline: "Who is responsible for the week-long crime in Tehran?". It quoted the alleged father of a victim saying: "The one responsible for my child's blood is Mir Hossein Mousavi and I will follow up this issue until I get my right."

All 25 employees of Mr Mousavi's newspaper, Kalemeh Sabz, were arrested, with intelligence officers suggesting that it was plotting against national security.

Mr Mousavi's freedom of manoeuvre appears to have been severely curtailed, with some reports suggesting that secret police and security agents are monitoring his every move. He was careful to distance himself from what he described as an "independent" demonstration yesterday, and some analysts believe that he will be arrested immediately if he calls for a strike.

Zahra Rahnavard, Mr Mousavi's wife, said that it was "as if martial law has been imposed". She said that her husband's supporters had a constitutional right to protest and demanded the release of all detainees.

Another defeated candidate, Mohsen Rezai, a former Revolutionary Guards chief, fell into line by withdrawing his complaints about election irregularities. Mehdi Karoubi, Mr Ahmadinajead's third challenger, remained defiant: "I do not accept the result and therefore consider as illegitimate the new Government," he said.

Determined to portray the protestors as pawns of subversive foreign powers, the regime continued to fulminate against Britain, which it accuses of fomenting the unrest to destablise the Islamic Republic.

Asked about the possibility of Iran downgrading its relations with Britain, Manouchehr Mottaki, the Foreign Minister, replied: "We are studying it." Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, the Intelligence Minister, claimed that some of the detained "rioters" had British passports.

In Washington the State Department confirmed, to nobody's surprise, that not one Iranian diplomat, anywhere in the world, had accepted ground-breaking invitations from their American counterparts to share hotdogs at July 4 parties. 

[Ed Anger]

[grumbler]

If the ultimate concern with Iran is that it will use a nuclear weapon, I don't see how you can say that this is in any way positive. Iran, under its current regime, will probably obtain a nuclear weapon soon, and a cornered hardline religious theocracy may be more prone to use it on Isreal before the reformers kick them out.

On the other hand, it may make the nuclear chain of command less likely to carry out such orders, since they would be facing a much likelier prospect that the hardline leadership wouldn't last long enough to protect them.

Nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran's current leadership is a worry, but I don't think a weak regime is necessarily  more likely to use them.  The weapons could likely be perceived as a bargaining chip to keep them from going to the wall if/when they had to give up power.

[alfred russel]

On the other hand, it may make the nuclear chain of command less likely to carry out such orders, since they would be facing a much likelier prospect that the hardline leadership wouldn't last long enough to protect them.

If they both have and order a launch of nuclear weapons, I'm not very hopeful that they don't get launched. The unrest may influence nuclear scientists not to participate and slow them down that way--but I'm not very hopeful on that front, especially with N. Korea.

[Berkut]

If the ultimate concern with Iran is that it will use a nuclear weapon, I don't see how you can say that this is in any way positive. Iran, under its current regime, will probably obtain a nuclear weapon soon, and a cornered hardline religious theocracy may be more prone to use it on Isreal before the reformers kick them out.

Not an issue, as we have been assured that they would never do anything like that.

[alfred russel]

Not an issue, as we have been assured that they would never do anything like that.

And assured us that there are no gays in Iran, among other things.

[KRonn]

Well, it looks like the mass demonstrations are over, since the Iranian government has gone into full Taliban mode on their own citizens. Hearing some pretty gruesome stories of people being shot, hacked up, beaten severely, all kinds of stuff. The hard line security forces are out in force, seems no holds barred. I'll bet that will "endear" the population to the thugocracy even more.

[Neil]

Well, it looks like I win, at least in the short term.

[KRonn]

Well, it looks like I win, at least in the short term.

Oh man, every time Neil wins, Hod kills a salamander...   

[Valmy]

Well, it looks like I win, at least in the short term.

What did you win? 

[Viking]

Well, it looks like I win, at least in the short term.

Oh man, every time Neil wins, Hod kills a salamander...   

Every time Neil wins, he does so in his own deluded fantasy.

[Savonarola]

Low blow by Ahmadinejad:

Ahmadinejad compares Obama to Bush

TEHRAN (Reuters) – President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused Barack Obama on Thursday of behaving like his predecessor toward Iran and said there was not much point in talking to Washington unless the U.S. president apologized.

EDITORS' NOTE: Reuters and other foreign media are subject to Iranian restrictions on their ability to report, film or take pictures in Tehran.

Obama said on Tuesday he was "appalled and outraged" by a post-election crackdown and Washington withdrew invitations to Iranian diplomats to attend U.S. Independence Day celebrations on July 4 -- stalling efforts to improve ties with Tehran.

"Mr Obama made a mistake to say those things ... our question is why he fell into this trap and said things that previously (former U.S. President George W.) Bush used to say," the semi-official Fars News Agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

"Do you want to speak with this tone? If that is your stance then what is left to talk about ... I hope you avoid interfering in Iran's affairs and express your regret in a way that the Iranian nation is informed of it," he said.

About 20 people have died in demonstrations following the disputed June 12 election. Police and militia have flooded Tehran's streets since Saturday, quelling the most widespread anti-government protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Analysts say the battle has now moved off the street into a protracted behind-the-scenes struggle within Iran's clerical establishment, facing an unprecedented public rift.

Opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi, who says he won the poll, has the backing of such powerful figures as former presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami, and senior cleric Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who normally stays above the political fray, has sided strongly with Ahmadinejad.

"My personal judgment is that this is a country deeply split and emotionalized," a Western diplomat in the region said.

Khamenei has upheld the result and Iran's top legislative body, the Guardian Council, has refused to annul the elections. State Press TV quoted a spokesman for the council as saying they were "among the healthiest elections ever held in the country".

MOUSAVI SAYS TO KEEP FIGHTING

Mousavi said on Thursday he was determined to keep challenging the election results despite pressure to stop.

"A major rigging has happened," his website reported him as saying. "I am prepared to prove that those behind the rigging are responsible for the bloodshed."

He called on his supporters to continue "legal" protests and said restrictions on the opposition could lead to more violence.

Mousavi supporters said they would release thousands of balloons on Friday imprinted with the message "Neda you will always remain in our hearts" -- a reference to the young woman killed last week who has become an icon of the protests.

Obama had previously been muted in his criticism.

But on Tuesday he said that, "the United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, the beatings, and imprisonments of the last few days."

Before the election, Obama had tried to improve ties with Iran -- branded by Bush as part of an "axis of evil".

Washington had been hoping to convince Tehran to drop what it suspects are plans to develop nuclear bombs, while also seeking its help in stabilising Afghanistan.

It had invited Iranian diplomats to attend Independence Day celebrations for the first time since Washington cut diplomatic ties with Tehran in 1980. The move to withdraw the invites was largely symbolic as no Iranians had even responded.

Mohammad Marandi, who is the head of North American Studies at Tehran University, said mistrust of the United States and Britain was rife.

"In the short term relations will definitely get worse, but in the long term the U.S. really has to re-think its policy and to recognize that regime change is not possible in Iran."

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said the problems came from within Iran rather than from the outside.

"I think the truth is that there is a crisis of credibility between the Iranian government and their own people. It's not a crisis between Iran and America or Iran and Britain, however much the Iranian government wants to suggest that," he said.

(Additional reporting by Zahra Hosseinian and Hossein Jaseb; Writing by Myra MacDonald; Editing by Jon Hemming)

Foreign despots no longer adore Obama; the honeymoon really is over. 

[KRonn]

Foreign despots no longer adore Obama; the honeymoon really is over. 

Good for Pres Obama! He made the (down) grade with at least one of the despots of the world.

He did get that nifty book gift from Hugo Chavez too - I wonder if Chavez will be asking for the gift to be returned?

So for sure, now there won't be any Iranian ambassadors partying at US embassy July 4th cookouts. Iranians celebrating the US start of its Democracy.... How ironic that would have been, given the Iranians continued quashing of their embryonic efforts at some similar semblance of at least some sort of an Islamic/Iranian Democracy.

[Neil]

Well, it looks like I win, at least in the short term.

What did you win? 

A moral victory against Spellus.

[Valmy]

A moral victory against Spellus.

I award you the Moral Victory Cup