News from Iran? Good? Bad? Who knows?

[jimmy olsen]

That's Mousavi's color...

I see.  Interesting choice on his part.

He's also painted the fraud as unislamic and had his followers shout God is Great and other islamic slogans that are identified with the Revolution.

[Oexmelin]

?

Green is the color of Islam, that is what the Green stripe in the Iranian flag represents.

I know, but it is also the colour of many other things (hope, renewal) which have also been invoked during his campaign. To ascribe - or hint at - possible nefarious meanings based on this seems a little short. The clerics have tried to forbid wearing green at political rallies and yet no one will think of accusing them of being atheists...

[Valmy]

I know, but it is also the colour of many other things (hope, renewal) which have also been invoked during his campaign. To ascribe - or hint at - possible nefarious meanings based on this seems a little short. The clerics have tried to forbid wearing green at political rallies and yet no one will think of accusing them of being atheists...

Well the green flag is one of the most recognizable symbols on Islam in the world so when you see a massive rally of Muslims in a Muslim country carrying green flags the meaning of that symbol is pretty instantaneous.  If they are waving a green flag to mean something else, they are intending it to be misleading then which is not impossible considering this is an Islamic Republic.

It would be sort of like a massive rally in Russia with people waving red flags.  The symbolism would be hard to miss, even if red could theoretically also represent other things.

[The Brain]

Hint: it's fucking Iran. Everyone supports muslim whackjobs.

[garbon]

Hint: it's fucking Iran. Everyone supports muslim whackjobs.

That's why I don't get the big deal. Mousavi is a muslim and supports muslims.

[Oexmelin]

Well the green flag is one of the most recognizable symbols on Islam in the world so when you see a massive rally of Muslims in a Muslim country carrying green flags the meaning of that symbol is pretty instantaneous.  If they are waving a green flag to mean something else, they are intending it to be misleading then which is not impossible considering this is an Islamic Republic.

It would be sort of like a massive rally in Russia with people waving red flags.  The symbolism would be hard to miss, even if red could theoretically also represent other things.

Yes, but consider a moment who they are targetting... Your analogy would make sense if your red-wearing protesters were demonstrating in China or the Soviet Union. Then you have to go beyond the red = commie analysis.

[Valmy]

Yes, but consider a moment who they are targetting... Your analogy would make sense if your red-wearing protesters were demonstrating in China or the Soviet Union. Then you have to go beyond the red = commie analysis.

I am not making an analysis I was just pointing out it was interesting they were protesting the election waving green Islamist flags.

It strikes me like a Medieval peasant revolt where they attack the nobles in the name of the King.

[Jaron]

If they want to quell this little peasant uprising they need to chop off the head of the beast and pop Mousavi already.

[Sheilbh]

Yet, the incredible shift of support from the last election to this one, where all other candidates other than Moussavi were wiped out and traditionnal bases of support of all candidates are twisted beyond recognition do hint at some form of caution. The voting pattern, which shows a constant ratio of support in favour of Ahmadinejad *regardless of regional variation* seem a bit strong to swallow, especially in Iran.

Also the electoral commission is legally required to wait three days before certifying the results, they did it in three hours.  Members of Mousavi campaign have said that they were told that it looked like they had won by people in the interior ministry before the announcement.

Also we don't know about the Azeris but we do not about the Lurs.  Keroubi's a Lur and he won that part of Iran last time round (overall he got, I think 17% of the vote) and did very well in Western Iran.  This time, apparently, his share of the vote was one tenth of what it was, and Mousavi's and Ahmedinejad's results were broadly in line with the national average.

I believe the poll the Washington Post is quoting actually had 52% of respondents not answering questions about that or saying they didn't know.

And no polling has ever accurately predicted an Iranian Presidential election - Khatami was polling 5% and won in the high 60s, similarly Ahmedinejad in 2005.  They're more difficult to poll than Indian Parliamentary elections.

It is personally yes, but I doubt it has much to do with theoretical interpretations of Khomeinism.

Oh absolutely, but I think after that long at the top of the state politics is personal.  This is a fight that started 30 years ago for at least three of the players.  Though I wonder if part of the threat to Khameini is that Rafsanjani and Mousavi have a pretty strong claim to Khomeini's legacy, at least as much as his.

Notice all the Islamist green flags in the crowd.

  It's interesting and lucky for Mousavi.  Apparently colours are assigned randomly to different candidates by the electoral commission.  He happened to get green which in Shia Islam is a symbol of being a descendant of the Prophet, which Mousavi is.

Well the green flag is one of the most recognizable symbols on Islam in the world so when you see a massive rally of Muslims in a Muslim country carrying green flags the meaning of that symbol is pretty instantaneous.  If they are waving a green flag to mean something else, they are intending it to be misleading then which is not impossible considering this is an Islamic Republic.

See above about why it's green and its particular symbolism in the case of this election.

Much of the protests have deliberately used symbols that the regime can't easily attack.  Mousavi's campaign has encouraged people to wave photos of Khomeini and Mousavi (but not Khameini who has equal billing and Ahmadi's rallies), similarly as well as chanting 'death to the dicatator', 'Ahmadi-bye-bye' and 'give us our votes' the campaign have asked protestors to shout 'Allah-o-Akbar' on their marches and from the rooftops of a night.  I think the regime's lost legitimacy as a Republic, I think they're trying to strip it of legitimacy as an Islamic state - hence the emphasis placed on Ayatollahs who are calling for a re-run, or who've declared the results a 'lie' and 'unislamic'.

I am not making an analysis I was just pointing out it was interesting they were protesting the election waving green Islamist flags.

As I say it's a colour that was assigned to his campaign (I believe Ahmedinejad got red) by the electoral commission, but I think it's more useful than that because they're protesting now against the Islamic Supreme Leader garbed in a colour of Islam and a colour associated with descendants of the Prophet for a candidate who is a defendant of the Prophet.  I think Mousavi's very lucky to have been assigned green.

[PDH]

I got assigned puce.

[Sheilbh]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey9Kgf-cB40
BBC Persia footage of the campaign.  Even the state press in Iran have reported that 'hundreds of thousands' of protestors have gone to the streets (in English, I don't know about Farsi).

The crowd was fired on by pro-Ahmedinejad militias and there are reports of four dead.  Intriguingly the riot police apparently stood by for the protest.  There's reports of gunfire in three areas of Northern Tehran now.

Here's the BBC Correspondent who attended the rally:

I just came away from the protest. It was an incredible sight. A huge crowd, hundreds of thousands of people maybe even millions of people there in defiance of open threats from the government that they should not assemble.

While I was at the demonstration the security forces were staying well away from it. We were even able to film and usually the secret police come in straight away and stop you. But the crowds were so enormous they were stepping back. As we drove out we saw rows of riot police stationed on the highway.

If they have opened fire, that is going to really ratchet up this, it could be frankly a huge political mistake for those running this country.

And the BBC page:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8101098.stm
The BBC's apparently trying to get round satellite jamming so they can broadcast BBC Persia into Iran again.

Mousavi told the crowds that 'the vote of the people is more important than Mousavi or any other person' and his wife said that they 'will stand until the end'.  As well as chants of 'Allah-o-akbar', 'get us back our votes' and 'death to dictators' the crowd was apparently chanting for the armed forces and police to support them.

Edit: Oh and the Guardian's debating whether or not to call it a coup by Ahmedinejad.  Apparently Michael Tomasky the editor of Guardian America is now saying that that's what it is and it should be called by its real name

[Sheilbh]

Oh and on that poll the Washington Post published it was done between May 11th and 20th.  Mousavi's campaign only started four weeks before the election and only really got going in the last two weeks.

The Washington Post also has this:

More to the point, however, the poll that appears in today's op-ed shows a 2 to 1 lead in the thinnest sense: 34 percent of those polled said they'd vote for Ahmadinejad, 14 percent for Mousavi. That leaves 52 percent unaccounted for. In all, 27 percent expressed no opinion in the election, and another 15 percent refused to answer the question at all. Six  Eight percent said they'd vote for none of the listed candidates; the rest for minor candidates.

One should be enormously wary of the current value of a poll taken so far before such a heated contest, particularly one where more than half of voters did not express an opinion.

[saskganesh]

any western observers calling for a recount yet? would that be too embarrassing for the ayatollahs? and would that be a bad thing?

The EU, take a look at the article I posted in reply 170.

thnx. I'll take your word that you posted that.

Canada is "deeply concerned."

[jimmy olsen]

Yes, but consider a moment who they are targetting... Your analogy would make sense if your red-wearing protesters were demonstrating in China or the Soviet Union. Then you have to go beyond the red = commie analysis.

I am not making an analysis I was just pointing out it was interesting they were protesting the election waving green Islamist flags.

It strikes me like a Medieval peasant revolt where they attack the nobles in the name of the King.

It's the Islamic Republic of Iran, they're not protesting against the Islamic part, they're protesting in favor of the Republic part so it makes sense for them to wrap themselves in Islam to legitimize themselves.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

?

Green is the color of Islam, that is what the Green stripe in the Iranian flag represents.

an eternal reminded that the Persians surrendered to the Arabs.