News from Iran? Good? Bad? Who knows?

[Ed Anger]

I wish these goddamn camel fuckers would hurry up and kill each other.

[Queequeg]

I think it is reasonably clear now that we are looking at a revolution.  How it turns out is anyone's guess. 

[jimmy olsen]

I think it is reasonably clear now that we are looking at a revolution.  How it turns out is anyone's guess.

Has the violence really ramped up in the last 24 hours?

[Queequeg]

I think it is reasonably clear now that we are looking at a revolution.  How it turns out is anyone's guess.

Has the violence really ramped up in the last 24 hours?

Reports of violence in all major cities; Rasht, Esfahan, Tabriz, Shiraz even Qom (center of Twelver Shi'ism and theological study).  Protestors have taken over several police stations and the army has declared neutrality.  The Daily Dish and Huffpo have great live blogs. 

[Queequeg]

It is pretty amazing.  Iranians have been recorded beating up secret police officers, and then escorting them to the police for medical treatment.  Some people. 

[C.C.R.]

I never understood the point of burning your garbage during a riot.

Do you instead burn your fineries when rioting?

[Jaron]

Change has come to Iran!

[Valmy]

Nice.  Well that election could not have gone better.  The Iranian regime looks ridiculous and crooked internationally and continues to freak out the Arabs with an insane President.

I am: pleased.

[Admiral Yi]

the army has declared neutrality.

Source me baby.

[Sheilbh]

I think it is reasonably clear now that we are looking at a revolution.  How it turns out is anyone's guess.

Has the violence really ramped up in the last 24 hours?

Well no.  Though I think it will, because this is reaching a point of no return where the regime either crushes dissent entirely with the full apparatus of the state (Tianamen) or the system to do that collapses.  There's interesting wrangling at the top of the regime with Rafsanjani appearing to more or less openly say that the results aren't accurate.

Mousavi's not backing down so far - he's called for rallies across Iran tomorrow and a general strike on Tuesday to protest the illegitimate results, he's also called on the Council of Guardians to annul the results.  The opposition are very cleverly pushing this line that the tampering with the election is 'unislamic', an Ayatollah declared a fatwa against it recently.  So Mousavi signed his letter with a quotation from the Quran that is basically 'those who love and know God have no fear of truth' and the opposition had people shouting 'allah-o-akbar' from the rooftops last night. 

The police are breaking up protests as they happen so, apparently, many of them are now that everyone runs out into the streets, blocks the traffic for a while, holds a mini-demonstration and then run back into their houses and offices when the police arrive.  In response the police now have lots of their officers roaming the cities on motorbikes.

The BBC, which has so far been blocked in both English and Farsi, have been protected a couple of times while filming by the crowd.  I saw John Simpson today reporting and the crowd found a secret policeman and pushed him out of the crowd and then helped the BBC team get out, with their footage.  I believe the BBC are now being expelled from the country.  But John Simpson, who's the World Affairs editor and has been a foreign correspondent for 30+ years says he can't remember anything like this in Iran since the Islamic Revolution itself.

One of the candidates has stopped wearing his clerical robes to protest the results (which he believes are an unislamic lie) and a moderate group of clerics which he used to lead but which also includes Khatami has said the results aren't real.

Now the regime can correct itself.  But only if the police, the military and the leadership are willing to use violence to totally snuff out any more of this sort of thing.  At this point that would probably require Rafsanjani, Mousavi and other leading reformists being arrested or done away with as well as ending the protests.  So far it seems the Revolutionary Guard has, thankfully, failed to 'nip' this in the bud.  And I think it makes the fears the regime earlier announced about a 'velvet revolution' or a 'colourful revolution' very explicable, because if this goes on much longer that will be what they're facing.

[Sheilbh]

the army has declared neutrality.

Source me baby.

I believe it's a rumour at this point.  If it's true then that means the regime has only paramilitary forces left.  I believe the tipping point in 1979 was when the army declared neutrality, so if it were to happen it would be very major news.

[Queequeg]

the army has declared neutrality.

Source me baby.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/is-the-revolt-spreading.html

Running slow, and information coming out of Iran is kind of patchy at this point due to crackdowns on certain websites.  Football forums are now the most active political discussion forums online in Iran.

[Josephus]

I wish the reformists well, I really do. There's nothing more I hate than religious kooks running a nation.

But I think you're being a bit optimistic. The Islamic regime is not going anywhere. Tianammen didn't exactly send the Commies packing.

Best case scenario, I can see, is the Ayatollahs declaring Moussavy the official winner as a compromise to the protestors and send Ahmanadijaad packing

However I hope I'm wrong and the entire corrupt system falls down.

[Queequeg]

the army has declared neutrality.

Source me baby.

I believe it's a rumour at this point.  If it's true then that means the regime has only paramilitary forces left.  I believe the tipping point in 1979 was when the army declared neutrality, so if it were to happen it would be very major news.

That's when a friend of mine's father, an Assyrian officer in the airforce, left. He guessed that the next regime would not look as kindly on Christians in the armed forces, and was right.

Rumor? Only facts we have now are uploaded videos, and even then that's not totally certain.  Everything is rumors.  What makes it so exciting. 

[Queequeg]

http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/13/alerts-from-tehran/


Rumors that the paramilitaries are denying medical assistance to anyone who isn't in the paramilitary, screaming at protesters "YOU DESERVE TO DIE!"  What a great way to improve your image!  These guys appear to be getting desperate.