News from Iran? Good? Bad? Who knows?

[CountDeMoney]

Hmm, Iranians get to choose between one nutty extremist and one slightly less nutty extremist.  And regardless who wins they will have no real power since that is held by the Ayatollahs.  That this election is for nothing is a foregone conclusion.

Alas, the usual idiots in the west will delude themselves into thinking that there is a possibility of a political solution if Achmedinejad loses.

Achmedinejad winning is actually the preferable outcome, at least it would prevent the publishing of hundreds of op-eds by the usually brain-dead foreign policy experts about how a diplomatic solution is now suddenly possible.  As well as the inevitable denouncations of Israel after they bomb Iran.

For once in a very long while, I agree with my Teutonic nutcase friend here.

Really wish all you saps would quit it with your bongwater dreams over Iran.

[Sheilbh]

I think there's something interesting happening here.

On the one hand Mousavi's I believe on the 'Islamic Left' who were hardline Islamist-socialists in the 80s.  They've since, almost entirely migrated to the reformist wing of Iranian society.  His views aren't entirely clear to a generation because he's not been in politics since the 80s and so he is perhaps a bit like Obama, a tabula rasa.

On the other the regime seems unusually rattled.  I've read several pieces in the last few days which have cited either Khameini or members of the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard warning about a 'velvet revolution' which they are unhappy and concerned about.

What I think, from both of those, may have happened is that Mousavi isn't necessarily a radical reformist - and for all the huffing and puffing let's not forget that Bush sr promised to re-start diplomatic relations with Iran and that under Khatami's government Iran did help the West in very serious ways -  but that his campaign could have been hijacked by people willing to see whatever they want to see.  I mean I find it very difficult to read stories of Mousavi supporters chanting 'death to dictatorship' in response to Ahmi supporters chantin 'death to America' as nothing at all.

Having said that it's a dictatorship and I don't think they've yet lost the will to kill and to brutalise in front of the world to keep holding onto power.

I also remember reading numerous warnings about sectarian divisions in Iraq between Sunnis and Shias.  I read counter-arguments that basically said that those warnings came from Arabists who were too in love with Arabic culture and too against the war to be taken seriously.  I may not trust 'foreign policy experts' whether that means Krauthammer or Hersh but I'll listen to any argument made by people who know more about Iran than I do because I start from a position of relative ignorance.

Edit:  I just looked up the quote from the Revolutionary Guard leadership.  It's from their political chief who specifically said that any 'velvet revolution' would be 'nipped in the bud' and he also seemed to single out Mousavi's campaign.  He said some 'extremist' by which he means reformist groups 'have designed a colourful revolution'. 

I don't know that this is about Mousavi.  He's no radical, or he wouldn't be allowed to run, but regardless of how impressive he is or how reformist he really is there's something about his campaign that has clearly rattled the regime in Iran.

I think the 'colourful revolution' line is especially interesting in the context of a heavily disputed election.

[Neil]

CNN just mentioned that the Iranian govt said that Ahmi has received 69% of the 5 million votes counted so far..

The government is going to have a really hard time containing Mousavi's voters if that is true.  I doubt that even Mousavi could, this just smells really fishy.

Mousavi will certainly try.  If his supporters get out of line, he's dead as Thanksgiving turkey.

Really, you have to wonder why he's being such a dick about claiming victory and stuff.

[Queequeg]

I also remember reading numerous warnings about sectarian divisions in Iraq between Sunnis and Shias.  I read counter-arguments that basically said that those warnings came from Arabists who were too in love with Arabic culture and too against the war to be taken seriously.  I may not trust 'foreign policy experts' whether that means Krauthammer or Hersh but I'll listen to any argument made by people who know more about Iran than I do because I start from a position of relative ignorance.

Who on this board knows more about Iran then you do?  I certainly don't.  Maybe Joan, but that's about it. 

[Hansmeister]

We can always count on the Obamateur to say something retarded when he pronounced today "Ultimately the election is for the Iranians to decide. You're seeing people looking at new possibilities. And whoever ends up winning the election in Iran, the fact that there's been a robust debate hopefully will help advance our ability to engage them in new ways."

Not quite ready for prime time.

[Queequeg]

Just realized that my Absolute Monarchy Safavid Empire in 1700 in EU3:MMP is significantly more liberal, tolerant and better managed than the current Iranian state.

Very depressing. 

[Queequeg]

CUNTS!

Iran elections update
Fri, 06/12/2009 - 11:27pm

Leading Iranian opposition presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi was due to give a press conference at 10am Tehran time (8 1/2 hours ahead of EST), a Washington-based Iran hand tells The Cable. Two hours earlier, final vote counts (according to state counters) are expected to be announced.

"If [Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei comes and endorses the results prior to 10am, then a Mousavi protest will be more than a confrontation, but war," the Iran hand says.

Meantime, an international human rights group says that it has received unconfirmed reports that Mousavi may have been taken into custody by Iranian intelligence officials.

"We were told by very reliable sources that Mousavi was detained on his way to meet the Supreme Leader by members of the intelligence ministry and taken to a safe house to prevent him from making any public announcement," Hadi Ghaemi, of the Hague-based NGO, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, told The Cable.

(A source who just spoke to someone who went to the Mousavi headquarters said the person disputed that Mousavi was detained. The situation is not clear.)

Ghaemi said that the Tehran campaign headquarters of Mousavi and another opposition presidential candidate Mehdi Karoubi have been surrounded by intelligence services.

"Security and armed forces have completely taken control of the situation and Karrubi and Mousavi both have been intimidated to accept defeat," Ghaemi wrote. "Both their HQs been seized and shut. Khamanei has summoned Karrubi and told him 'to shut up.' Similarly Mousavi has been forced to accept defeat."

"Based on this information, the claim is that using armed presence and use of force the coup is completed. Ahmadinejad's supporters are reportedly already in the streets of Tehran and celebrating their 'victory.' Mousavi and Karrubi and their supporters are so intimidated they don't dare to make any public challenges. I am told none of their top staff would do an interview. A very sad day for Iranian people...."

"Moussavi's official website, http://www.ghalamnews.ir/, reported that when his supporters gathered around his headquarters to celebrate what they believed was his victory based on reports of his representatives at polling stations, police forces confronted them using pepper spray and violently dispersed them. Moussavi's headquarters have been since shut, similar to Karroubi's headquarters," the human rights group said in a press release.

Ghaemi said  opposition forces believe there was massive fraud in the vote count but cannot figure out or yet prove where it occurred, perhaps in the computer system pre-planned in advance. He said that they are frightened. 

Iran hands have used words like "coup" to describe what they believe may be taking place.

See also, from Reuters, "Results stagger analysts," citing among others, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Karim Sadjadpour: "I don't think anyone anticipated this level of fraudulence. This was a selection, not an election. At least authoritarian regimes like Syria and Egypt have no democratic pretences. In retrospect it appears this entire campaign was a show: (Supreme Leader) Ayatollah (Ali) Khamenei wasn't ever going to let Ahmadinejad lose."

"I'm in disbelief that this could be the case," Reuters cited Trita Parsi. "It's one thing if Ahmadinejad had won the first round with 51 or 55 per cent. But this number ... just sounds tremendously strange in a way that doesn't add up ... It is difficult to feel comfortable that this occurred without any cheating."

[The Brain]

Iran not a democracy? No wai!

[Martinus]

Meh, the thread title is misleading. I thought Iran got nuked. 

[Grallon]

CUNTS!

This reminds me of the Guardian's frontpage after the reelection of Bush in 2004 




G.

[Tamas]

Come on guys. We just need to keep talking to Iran, they are a reasonable regime.
Maybe we will have to give them the Sudetenland, but thats all.

[Josquius]

Its good news if they have arrested him. It beats just subtly rigging the results and letting Ahmajiadad win by the supposed forces of the people's democracy.

Very out of character for the country though. Iran being a democracy is exactly WHY its so bad.

[Jaron]

STFU Hans.

[Ed Anger]

I hope the revolutionary guards start machine gunning student protestors. I'd laugh so hard.

[DontSayBanana]

Its good news if they have arrested him. It beats just subtly rigging the results and letting Ahmajiadad win by the supposed forces of the people's democracy.

Very out of character for the country though. Iran being a democracy is exactly WHY its so bad.

This. "True colors" and all that jazz; it would let us drop the pretense of having to be friendly to Iran if they're exposed in large-scale vote fraud and violent suppression.