News from Iran? Good? Bad? Who knows?

[alfred russel]

If we chip in you promise to go and not come back?

He doesn't need to promise not to come back--probably the one thing that would bring the two sides together is beating an American senseless.

[Viking]

Iran to have recount.. OMGLOLZ Iran is teh Forida!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8102400.stm

Iran 'to hold election recount'

Iran's powerful Guardian Council says it is ready to recount disputed votes from Friday's presidential poll.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's re-election is being contested by rival Mir Hossein Mousavi and other moderate candidates, who are seeking a rerun.

The BBC's Jon Leyne in Tehran says they may not accept the recount offer.

Several people died in a protest on Monday and Mr Mousavi urged followers not to take part in a rally planned for Tuesday, amid fears of new violence.

"This headquarters calls on people to avoid the trap of planned clashes," a Mousavi spokesman told AFP news agency.

The authorities announced tough new restrictions on foreign media, requiring journalists to obtain explicit permission before covering any story. Journalists have also been banned from attending or reporting on any unauthorised demonstration.

Our correspondent says they are the most sweeping restrictions he has ever encountered reporting anywhere.

The march was due to have taken place in Tehran's Vali Asr Square at the same time as a demonstration there by supporters of President Ahmadinejad.

VOTE RECOUNT
Jon Leyne Reporting from Tehran The more I see this announcement about being willing to recount ballots, the more I think it is just a political ruse to try and wrong-foot the opposition. They have offered a recount, but they have not said who is going to carry it out. Maybe the same people who did the election count to start with.

In any case, the opposition says there were so many other irregularities, that a recount alone would not satisfy them. For example, many more ballot papers were issued than counted, they say. Some people did not get enough ballot papers so they could not vote in areas loyal to the opposition. Polling stations were closed early, and so on and so forth.

Thousands of the president's followers have converged there in a show of strength, cramming into tree-lined boulevards, some waving the national flag, as well as ones of orange, yellow and green.

'Missing ballots'

The Guardian Council - Iran's top legislative body - said votes would be recounted in areas contested by the losing candidates.

But a spokesman for the council told state television it would not annul the election - as moderate candidates have demanded.

The opposition says millions of ballots may have gone astray.

Monday's protest involved hundreds of thousands of people and was one of the largest since the Iranian revolution 30 years ago.

A report on state radio said "thugs" staged an attack at the end of the "illegal" rally as people were heading home "peacefully".

"Several thugs wanted to attack a military post and vandalise public property in the vicinity of Azadi Square," the radio said, referring to the site of the protest.

"Unfortunately seven people were killed and several others wounded in the incident."

Hospital officials later put the number of dead at eight.

Dozens of people have been arrested since the protests began. Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a close aide of ex-President Mohammad Khatami, was detained at his home in Tehran on Tuesday.

Those detained also include prominent journalist and academic Ahmad Zeidabadi. His wife says he was picked up in the middle of the night on Saturday.



"There is no explanation from the authorities about why he was arrested or where he is," she told the BBC.

Meanwhile, Iranian state television said the "main agents" behind the unrest had been detained, and guns and explosives seized.

There are reports of fresh demonstrations at Tehran University - one of the main centres of tension in recent days. About 120 university lecturers have resigned.

The powerful Speaker of parliament, Ali Larijani, has condemned an attack by police and militia on a student dormitory.

Iranian media quoted him as saying: "The interior minister is responsible in this regard."

Unrest has been reported in other parts of Iran. One of Mr Mousavi's websites said a student had died on Monday in clashes with hardliners in the southern city of Shiraz.

Foreign concern

Our correspondent says the authorities appear to be weakening in their support for President Ahmadinejad.

The country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered an inquiry into the allegations of vote-rigging.

The authorities' handling of the protests has drawn international criticism.

EU foreign ministers expressed "serious concern" and called for an inquiry into the conduct of the election.

US President Barack Obama said he was "deeply troubled" by the violence in Iran.

Meanwhile, President Ahmadinejad arrived in Russia on Tuesday.

He told a regional summit that the "age of empires" had ended, but made no mention of the protests.

[The Minsky Moment]

I mean the Islamic Republic doesn't rig elections by stuffing ballot boxes, historically they've rigged the election before the campaign can start. 

Which is what they did here - it was the classic Kang and Kodos matchup.  That's why I think the rigging was probably done independently by IRGC types without orders from the Supreme Leader.

[jimmy olsen]

The crackdown gathers steam. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSDAH619963

Leading Iranian reformist arrested, his office says
Tue Jun 16, 2009 1:49am EDT

TEHRAN, June 16 (Reuters) - Leading Iranian reformist Mohammad Ali Abtahi was arrested on Tuesday, his office said.

Abtahi, a former vice president who backed pro-reform candidate Mehdi Karoubi in last Friday's disputed presidential election, was arrested in the morning, it said without giving further details.

Reformist sources said another prominent reformer, Saeed Hajjarian, was arrested on Monday.

Hajjarian is an ally of moderate Mirhossein Mousavi, who has formally appealed the result of the election which showed hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won by a landslide.

Separately, the semi-official Fars News Agency quoted a senior police official as saying some "anti-revolutionary" people had been arrested with bomb material and weapons. (Editing by Angus MacSwan)

[Valmy]

The crackdown gathers steam. 

Shocking.

[KRonn]

Separately, the semi-official Fars News Agency quoted a senior police official as saying some "anti-revolutionary" people had been arrested with bomb material and weapons.

Yeah, right... trumped up "evidence" is exactly what I was thinking when I heard this story this morning.   

[HVC]

Separately, the semi-official Fars News Agency quoted a senior police official as saying some "anti-revolutionary" people had been arrested with bomb material and weapons.

Yeah, right... trumped up "evidence" is exactly what I was thinking when I heard this story this morning.   

I don't know. They are muslims, and when they get frustrated they do like to blow stuff up

[Valmy]

The Iranian government being suicide bombed?  That would be delightfully ironic.  Talk about reaping what you sow.

But lets not get ahead of ourselves here.  Will the opposition chicken out or not...that is the question.

[Admiral Yi]

Yes, Ahmaninjajihad and his people must be very eager to associate the protesters with the Great Satan and the Joos. So Israel and USA should just STFU on the whole issue.

Why, because if a majority of the population is told they are stooges of the US they will change their minds?

Obama's statement is reasonable.

[jimmy olsen]

Wow, an unholy fusion of the Secret Police and Telemarketers!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

"We have an unconfirmed report about police intimidation. The source tells us that although he did not take part in the protests yesterday, an individual contacted his residence and left him a chilling message. The person on the phone told him that "we know that you took part in the rallies and as a result of your participation, you will be dealt with." The source says that many people are getting this message."

An Iranian posting on Twitter had a similar report earlier: "NEWS: Ppl randomly receiving calls w/ automated msg "you've participated in protest" 2 scare ppl"

[garbon]

I like the twitter report better. It is so raw and compelling!

[Josquius]

A recount?
From what Iranian talking heads on TV say that will likely not do much good with the fraud being before the counting stages.
Apparently this election unlike all others before it was under the supervision of one government body for election fairness- a  body that happens to have been appointed by the current president....

I'm beginning to grow quite worried about some of my Iranian friends. Loads of them went home in the week before the election- it being the start of uni summer holidays. Several of them haven't made a peep on facebook or anywhere lately either, I hope this is just due to being in a third world country with limited net access.

[jimmy olsen]

A recount?
From what Iranian talking heads on TV say that will likely not do much good with the fraud being before the counting stages.
Apparently this election unlike all others before it was under the supervision of one government body for election fairness- a  body that happens to have been appointed by the current president....

I'm beginning to grow quite worried about some of my Iranian friends. Loads of them went home in the week before the election- it being the start of uni summer holidays. Several of them haven't made a peep on facebook or anywhere lately either, I hope this is just due to being in a third world country with limited net access.

23 out of Iran's 70 million people have access to the net, however the Government's been shutting down access to social networking sites in order to keep the protesters from organizing.

[Sheilbh]

Other nations have been more forceful in their words but again, for now, I still think the US is in a different position so that's why the Obama admin is reacting to events more quietly.

I agree.  The State broadcasters are using clips of Fox News to suggest that this is a foreign neo-con orchestrated plot to destabilise Iran in which the protestors and reformist candidates are useful idiots.  I believe in 2003 they more or less non-stop played George Bush's statement of support to suggest that it was similarly foreigners interfering in Iran and all the reformist politicians had to issue statements saying they didn't support the protests and they weren't treasonous etc.

I think this sensitivity is understandable in Iran given that the UK and US have played a pretty murky role in swapping governments round.  There's an Iranian novel called 'Uncle Napoleon' about an old uncle in a family who's convinced the British are behind everything, that his dentist and doctor and almost everyone else are British spies.  It's a farce but I think it's reflective of a certain fear after so much meddling.  I believe it's still very popular and well-known though it's officially banned.

A few questions I'm not sure about.

I've read a few reports that the police are starting to seem a lot more sympathetic to the protestors, some even smiling and waving now.  Apparently women have played a key role as they run to the front of the protest and chant 'we're all Iranian'.  Would that matter if it were true that the police were beginning to sympathise?

Similarly what's going on in the Revolutionary Guards.  I mean they're the part of the Iranian state we know least about.  Are they loyal above all to Khameini or to Ahmadinejad?  I've read a couple of reports that many of the RG on the street of Teheran sound like they've been shipped in.  If the Teheran Bajis and RG start to be less keen on repressing protests how significant would that be?

What's going on in the provinces?  So far I've seen clips that are allegedly from cities outside Teheran but journalists can't get there (indeed they're now being held in hotels and offices until their visas expire, which they do in the next day or two) and I've read that a Bajis base in Mashad has been burned down.  Are there protests there?  Or is the country quiet?

Given that today's protest was meant to be cancelled because there were a lot of rumours of a trap and then hastily re-arranged to follow a different route apparently again hundreds of thousands turned out which is impressive. 
Footage here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dnyi5BtGaQY
The repression and beatings are continuing and I've heard a report that ambulances are being ordered to drive the injured to Revolutionary Guards run hospitals.   Incidentally here's nurses and doctors protesting outside a hospital:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyirzlCO-FA
According to the Guardian:

Grand ‌Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, a top dissident cleric who was Ayatollah Khomeini's designated successor before falling out of favour with the regime, has issued a statement denouncing election results that "no one in their right mind can believe" and blasting the "astonishing violence" wrought on the protesters in full view of the press.

Key point: "A government not respecting people's vote has no religious or political legitimacy".

The statement, in Farsi, was posted on Montazeri's official website. A rough English translation is here.

That rough translation is here:
http://kojayi.wordpress.com/2009/06/16/ayatollah-montazeris-letter/

So it doesn't look like the protest movement is petering out despite a lot of attempts to stop it.  But I've no idea.  What's happening at the top of the state?  What's happening in the provinces?  Are the RG in Teheran less reliable than they were on Friday?  What about the police and armed forces?

I think a very good reason for foreign governments to show a lot of caution is that right now we're almost entirely dealing with 'unknown unknowns'.

Edit:  And a very dodgy report, so far as I can tell, says that 16 RG commanders were arrested last night for talking to army commanders about not supporting the retime.

[alfred russel]

I like the twitter report better. It is so raw and compelling!

Is there anything that keeps me from being a twitter reporter (except not having a twitter account)? I could report this story, and dozens of others, depending on how much time I want to kill:

"Last night, my brother and I went out to the protests. We got separated, there was some shooting, and I can't find him. He never came home last night. I'm so worried."