NCAA Football, 2014-2015

[alfred russel]

Big chart of all FBS schools.  For some reason (I assume typo) Arizona wasn't colored in yellow in the far right column, they are at 42.

http://48az78esb162xomyl2iipyey3f.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/week-11-SelComm-SOS.png

It seems to me that Strength of Conference and Quality Wins^TM are more important than this "SoS" ranking.  Oregon is #20 of the Top 25 teams in "SoS" and 63/128 overall; much lower than Arizona (of course Oregon is hurt by not having Oregon on their schedule) and lower than Florida State, who is undefeated and was jumped by Oregon.

Arizona is also hurt by not playing any respectable teams out of conference while Oregon played Michigan State.

I'm not a huge fan of that format of strength of schedule ranking, especially when evaluating the top 5-6 teams in the country. A top 5 program is going to be at a 95%+ win probability against all FCS schools, most non power 5 schools and even some really shitty power 5 schools. Winning a pair of games against say an Oregon and a Citadel is far more impressive than winning a pair against mid tier MAC teams.

That type of strength of schedule ranking also has an SEC bias, with 6 out of the top 8 spots going to SEC schools.

[alfred russel]

I wonder if snow is included in SOS. Should be.

That would be silly. Both teams have to deal with the conditions. Two teams enter a stadium, and one leaves with a loss, the other with a win. Doesn't matter if it is snowing, raining, or 70 degrees and sunny with a gentle breeze.

[MadImmortalMan]

Nope. A game won in snow is more valuable than a game won in sun.

[sbr]

Big chart of all FBS schools.  For some reason (I assume typo) Arizona wasn't colored in yellow in the far right column, they are at 42.

http://48az78esb162xomyl2iipyey3f.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/week-11-SelComm-SOS.png

It seems to me that Strength of Conference and Quality Wins^TM are more important than this "SoS" ranking.  Oregon is #20 of the Top 25 teams in "SoS" and 63/128 overall; much lower than Arizona (of course Oregon is hurt by not having Oregon on their schedule) and lower than Florida State, who is undefeated and was jumped by Oregon.

Arizona is also hurt by not playing any respectable teams out of conference while Oregon played Michigan State.

I'm not sure if you are arguing or agreeing with me here, but the key point is that Oregon BEAT Michigan State for the Quality Win^TM , not that they played them.  It is still obviously way to early to make too many broad predictions about the system, but I think that any team that wins a P5 conference with 0 or 1 loss will be in the playoff no matter their OOC schedule.  Taking the chance of a loss in September, to possibly make a minor increase in a subjective tie-breaker that may or may not be used, doesn't seem to be a rational move by a P5 team.

The more I think about it, the less I understand Oregon leap-frogging FSU this week.  FSU has not lost in 2+ years, Oregon had a home loss.  FSU has the better SoS number, though the SoS numbers appear close (.512-.504), but there are 7 teams between the two schools.  So apparently the gap between MSU and ND, and the SoC between ACC and Pac-12 must be much bigger than it would appear on paper.  Not that it matters all that much now.  Number 1, it is way too early and there are a lot of games left to be played and second the #2/#3 ranking is interchangeable at the end of the season.  Those 2 teams will play each other on a neutral field, it is just a question of who wears white jerseys.

[Valmy]

Oh my God!  Virginia Tech just upset Duke....in football.  What a weird world 2014 is.

[alfred russel]

I'm not sure if you are arguing or agreeing with me here, but the key point is that Oregon BEAT Michigan State for the Quality Win^TM , not that they played them.  It is still obviously way to early to make too many broad predictions about the system, but I think that any team that wins a P5 conference with 0 or 1 loss will be in the playoff no matter their OOC schedule.  Taking the chance of a loss in September, to possibly make a minor increase in a subjective tie-breaker that may or may not be used, doesn't seem to be a rational move by a P5 team.

The more I think about it, the less I understand Oregon leap-frogging FSU this week.  FSU has not lost in 2+ years, Oregon had a home loss.  FSU has the better SoS number, though the SoS numbers appear close (.512-.504), but there are 7 teams between the two schools.  So apparently the gap between MSU and ND, and the SoC between ACC and Pac-12 must be much bigger than it would appear on paper.  Not that it matters all that much now.  Number 1, it is way too early and there are a lot of games left to be played and second the #2/#3 ranking is interchangeable at the end of the season.  Those 2 teams will play each other on a neutral field, it is just a question of who wears white jerseys.

I was both agreeing with you and supplementing what you said. 

But based on the methodology you presented it is irrelevant whether Oregon beat Michigan State or not, hence I just said they played (it actually probably hurt their strength of schedule, as they gave their opponent a loss, if there isn't an adjustment for that).

I've put the FSU / Oregon flip down to a few factors:
-besides losing to Arizona, Oregon has looked awesome. FSU hasn't lost, but has looked about as shaky as you can without losing.
-the bizarre (in my mind at least) overrating of Michigan State through the season.
-communicating that FSU is fucked if indeed they do lose. (if they were picking two teams for the championship, I bet they wouldn't have the balls to drop FSU to #2). If FSU loses, I think the committee has made a statement that they will be behind every other 1 loss power conference winner, and probably also 2 loss conference champs in the SEC and Pac 12.

[sbr]

I'm not sure if you are arguing or agreeing with me here, but the key point is that Oregon BEAT Michigan State for the Quality Win^TM , not that they played them.  It is still obviously way to early to make too many broad predictions about the system, but I think that any team that wins a P5 conference with 0 or 1 loss will be in the playoff no matter their OOC schedule.  Taking the chance of a loss in September, to possibly make a minor increase in a subjective tie-breaker that may or may not be used, doesn't seem to be a rational move by a P5 team.

The more I think about it, the less I understand Oregon leap-frogging FSU this week.  FSU has not lost in 2+ years, Oregon had a home loss.  FSU has the better SoS number, though the SoS numbers appear close (.512-.504), but there are 7 teams between the two schools.  So apparently the gap between MSU and ND, and the SoC between ACC and Pac-12 must be much bigger than it would appear on paper.  Not that it matters all that much now.  Number 1, it is way too early and there are a lot of games left to be played and second the #2/#3 ranking is interchangeable at the end of the season.  Those 2 teams will play each other on a neutral field, it is just a question of who wears white jerseys.

I was both agreeing with you and supplementing what you said. 

But based on the methodology you presented it is irrelevant whether Oregon beat Michigan State or not, hence I just said they played (it actually probably hurt their strength of schedule, as they gave their opponent a loss, if there isn't an adjustment for that).

Ah, ok.   

I agree that the result of the MSU game has little to do with the SoS number we are talking about above (outside of the opponent loss you mentioned), but it was a Quality Win^TM for Oregon, which is another metric the committee has said they will consider.  IIRC they specifically mentioned Conference Championships, SoS and Quality Wins as things they will consider.  The win over another Top ~15 team is worth more than the SoS bump they got for playing the game.

I've put the FSU / Oregon flip down to a few factors:
-besides losing to Arizona, Oregon has looked awesome. FSU hasn't lost, but has looked about as shaky as you can without losing.
-the bizarre (in my mind at least) overrating of Michigan State through the season.
-communicating that FSU is fucked if indeed they do lose. (if they were picking two teams for the championship, I bet they wouldn't have the balls to drop FSU to #2). If FSU loses, I think the committee has made a statement that they will be behind every other 1 loss power conference winner, and probably also 2 loss conference champs in the SEC and Pac 12.

Yeah, those all sound about right.

[sbr]

Now back to your comment about Arizona's OOC schedule hurting them.

Here are the Top 8 in the committee rankings.  I assume that outside of something absurd, an improved OOC schedule wouldn't move 2 loss Arizona above any of these team?

I am not going to attempt any formatting, but there is Ranking, Team, Record, SoS Rank (Rank in Top 25/Overall National Rank):

1 Mississippi State 9-0 - #10/#30
2 Oregon 9-1 - #19/#63
3 Florida State 9-0 - #17/#55
4 TCU 8-1 - #11/#37
5 Alabama 8-1 - #5/#8
6 Arizona State 8-1 - #9/#21
7 Baylor 8-1 - #24/#90
8 Ohio State 8-1 - #15/#47


Now the 2 loss teams:

9 Auburn 7-2 - #1/#1
10 Ole Miss 8-2 - #3/#4
11 UCLA 8-2 - #2/#3
12 Michigan State 7-2 - #16/#48
13 Kansas State 7-2 - #12/#41   
14 Arizona 7-2 - #13/#42      
15 Georgia 7-2 - #14/#44
18 Notre Dame 7-2 - #6/#14
19 Clemson 7-2 - #20/#72
20 Wisconsin 7-2 - #21/#76
22.Georgia Tech 8-2 - #18/#61
25 Minnesota 7-2 - #22/#78


Arizona is 5/12 among the 2 loss teams.  KSU and UofA are #13 and #14 and have the same SoS number (0.524), so Arizona could be one step up with a better SoS.  The committee really likes the Top 3 Big-12 teams though.

Arizona already has a better SoS than MSU, so I don't know how much better it would have to be to move them ahead of MSU.  I imagine MSU is getting quite a bit of credit for their only lossses being to #2 Oregon and #8 Ohio State.

UCLA has one of the top 3 SoS in the country and pretty soundly beat Arizona, not sure what UofA would have to do in OOC to have moved ahead of them and whatever that is I would imagine they would then have more than 2 losses.

Then the 2 loss SEC teams both with Top 4 SoS numbers.

Outside of KSU, which would move them to #13 instead of #14 (and 4/12 in 2 loss teams) where do you see Arizona being held back by their OOC schedule?  Keep in mind that any increase in OOC difficulty increases the odds that a team gets another loss knocking them even further back in the overall rankings.

[CountDeMoney]

Man, some serious ass goes to Alabama.

[Ed Anger]

Man, some serious ass goes to Alabama.

ROLL TIDE

[alfred russel]

Now back to your comment about Arizona's OOC schedule hurting them.

Here are the Top 8 in the committee rankings.  I assume that outside of something absurd, an improved OOC schedule wouldn't move 2 loss Arizona above any of these team?

Sbr,

I think if they bagged a serious out of conference opponent, they could be above Kansas State and Michigan State.

In terms of teams with one loss, I'd guess they will be above Ohio State and Baylor if they lose again.

Arizona State and Oregon they probably will get ahead of if they win out (because of they would win the conference). I'd guess that FSU with a loss will stay ahead of Arizona, but not a 2 loss Oregon or Arizona State. TCU with a second loss would be interesting, but I think Arizona would end up ahead of them assuming they beat Oregon twice.

[MadImmortalMan]

The NV-Air Force game was exciting until overtime.

[sbr]

Now back to your comment about Arizona's OOC schedule hurting them.

Here are the Top 8 in the committee rankings.  I assume that outside of something absurd, an improved OOC schedule wouldn't move 2 loss Arizona above any of these team?

Sbr,

I think if they bagged a serious out of conference opponent, they could be above Kansas State and Michigan State.

In terms of teams with one loss, I'd guess they will be above Ohio State and Baylor if they lose again.

Arizona State and Oregon they probably will get ahead of if they win out (because of they would win the conference). I'd guess that FSU with a loss will stay ahead of Arizona, but not a 2 loss Oregon or Arizona State. TCU with a second loss would be interesting, but I think Arizona would end up ahead of them assuming they beat Oregon twice.

What sort of team do you mean by serious ooc opponent?  Top 20?  Maybe a Wisconsin, or were you thinking even better than that?

I agree that a win like that would help, but I'm not sure that Arizona would win that game.

First I want to make sure that no one thinks I am taking away from Arizona's win in Eugene.  I was at that game and Arizona kicked the Ducks' ass; it was not as close as the final score showed.

However, I think that the Oregon game is the outlier on Arizona's schedule.  The only other ranked team they have played (UCLA) beat them rather decisively.  They handled UNLV, Washington State and Colorado pretty handily.  They struggled (or at least played close games, didn't watch any of them) against the rather mediocre, at best, USTA, Nevada, California, Washington.  If not for a ridiculous hail mary against Cal Arizona has 3 losses and this entire discussion is moot.

Why do we think that Arizona would be able to win this hypothetical game that would so greatly improve their ooc schedule?  They are a pretty young team, at QB and RB at least, and I saw nothing in September that would make me think they could win a game against a Top 20 team.

The nice thing for Arizona though, is they still have 2 very good ranked opponents left to play, and beating them will answer a lot of questions.

tl;dr: I don't think Arizona was good enough in September to win a game that would significantly improve their ooc sos.

[alfred russel]

sbr, I'm not saying that Arizona needs to schedule stronger. Obviously if you lose an ooc game that only hurts you. I'm just saying they don't have an ideal schedule to get into the playoffs with 2 losses. I guess a strategy is to schedule the minimum difficulty to get into the playoffs. Whether or not Arizona has done that, I guess we will find out, but I think they have cut it close (of course it is probably academic because I think the vegas odds will tell you they will likely lose again).

Anyway, it is almost H hour. TORA! TORA! TORA!

[MadImmortalMan]

Time to bomb Pearl Harbor?