NCAA Football, 2014-2015

[alfred russel]

I did not pull them as an example - you did. Of course you did, because it was a year where the champion lost a OOC game, they very definition of cherry picking.

Uh, dude, I showed the out of conference losses for every Pac 12 champ since 2008. That isn't cherry picking. That is highlighting why the best team in the Pac 12 can't just say "cannibalization" for why it isn't the national champ.

[Berkut]

It isn't a case of whether the Pac 12 does well, it is a case of whether the best team in the Pac 12 can post a strong case to be the best in the country.

The question I've posed all along (and specifially in this case) is whether or not the Pac-12 gets a fair shot at spots in BCS games, and in this case, whether they will get a fair shot at a spot in the 4 team playoff. givent he weight that the human polls gives to W-L without much consideration given to SOS?

Like I said, I don't think the Pac-12 should change, even if it does reduce their chances of getting into those games. I think it is a small price to pay for getting to see better football.

[alfred russel]

It isn't a case of whether the Pac 12 does well, it is a case of whether the best team in the Pac 12 can post a strong case to be the best in the country.

The question I've posed all along (and specifially in this case) is whether or not the Pac-12 gets a fair shot at spots in BCS games, and in this case, whether they will get a fair shot at a spot in the 4 team playoff. givent he weight that the human polls gives to W-L without much consideration given to SOS?

Like I said, I don't think the Pac-12 should change, even if it does reduce their chances of getting into those games. I think it is a small price to pay for getting to see better football.

Outside of the BCS title game, a major driver of BCS selection is an ability to sell tickets. "Fairness" really isn't what it is about.

Going forward a committee is going to be picking the playoff participants, so right now all we can do is speculate what they will value when they make the decisions.

[Berkut]

Indeed. They have said that SOS will be paramount, which should actually give the Pac-12 a *better* shot than the other conferences, if in fact they actually follow through.

I suspect, however, that the pressure to make sure the SEC gets over-represented will be too great for that to happen. Which is really too bad, since if they actually do do what they claim they are going to do, it will push everyone to play tougher schedules, whether that be a 9 game conference schedule, or at least schedule a real BCS conference quality school for that fourth OOC game.

[alfred russel]

Indeed. They have said that SOS will be paramount, which should actually give the Pac-12 a *better* shot than the other conferences, if in fact they actually follow through.

I suspect, however, that the pressure to make sure the SEC gets over-represented will be too great for that to happen. Which is really too bad, since if they actually do do what they claim they are going to do, it will push everyone to play tougher schedules, whether that be a 9 game conference schedule, or at least schedule a real BCS conference quality school for that fourth OOC game.

It isn't clear that there should be a hard and fast rule that 8 SEC games plus a championship is easier than 9 Pac 12 plus a championship. Especially considered that some (but not all) Pac 12 teams have a watered down out of conference schedule.

I would think that an 8 game conference schedule with a championship game is generally harder than a 9 game schedule without a championship game (as with the Big 12). If the Big 12 was to split into divisions and implement an 8 game schedule with a championship game, that 9th game they are losing would be--on average--against an average Big 12 school, while they would pick up a conference champion.

[Berkut]

Indeed. They have said that SOS will be paramount, which should actually give the Pac-12 a *better* shot than the other conferences, if in fact they actually follow through.

I suspect, however, that the pressure to make sure the SEC gets over-represented will be too great for that to happen. Which is really too bad, since if they actually do do what they claim they are going to do, it will push everyone to play tougher schedules, whether that be a 9 game conference schedule, or at least schedule a real BCS conference quality school for that fourth OOC game.

It isn't clear that there should be a hard and fast rule that 8 SEC games plus a championship is easier than 9 Pac 12 plus a championship. Especially considered that some (but not all) Pac 12 teams have a watered down out of conference schedule.

I think all other things being equal, a team that plays 9 conference games is playing a tougher schedule that a team that is playing 8, assuming we are talking about the major conferences. Since the stats show that the Pac-12 is basically a wash compared to the SEC in strength of schools overall (Sagarin ranks last year as SEC-West, Pac-12 North, Pac12 South, SEC East), then it seems pretty clear that replacing a game against a conference opponent with a game against a weak OOC opponent is almost certainly going to mean an easier SOS.

Unless you are arguing that overall playing SEC teams is so much harder that it is a wash, but the stats clearly do NOT show that.

But if you are just saying that there isn't any reason to assume that a given team in the Pac-12 is going to have a stronger SOS vs a given team in the SEC, then no argument from me. Of course it may very well be the case that any particular team could happen to have a higher SOS based on what actual teams they play, but overall it is clear that the Pac-12 has made the hardest road to follow with their "contenders" playing 10 conference opponents to other conferences 9 (with the tenth replaced with a patsy, by and large).

[Ed Anger]

Real football ends at the Plains.

[derspiess]

Real football ends at the Plains.

No shit.  Further west is just filler for late Saturday evening TV.

[Ed Anger]

I'm just glad Boise St. is back to being nothing again. I was sick of those damn scrubs and that stupid blue field.

[derspiess]

I'm just glad Boise St. is back to being nothing again. I was sick of those damn scrubs and that stupid blue field.

And the Timmays.  Don't forget the Timmays.

[Ed Anger]

I'm just glad Boise St. is back to being nothing again. I was sick of those damn scrubs and that stupid blue field.

And the Timmays.  Don't forget the Timmays.

I hope JoePa's ghost rapes tim.

[Barrister]

Real football ends at the Plains.

Real football only has three downs. 

[Ed Anger]

Real football ends at the Plains.

Real football only has three downs. 

I poop in your general direction.

[alfred russel]

I think all other things being equal, a team that plays 9 conference games is playing a tougher schedule that a team that is playing 8, assuming we are talking about the major conferences. Since the stats show that the Pac-12 is basically a wash compared to the SEC in strength of schools overall (Sagarin ranks last year as SEC-West, Pac-12 North, Pac12 South, SEC East), then it seems pretty clear that replacing a game against a conference opponent with a game against a weak OOC opponent is almost certainly going to mean an easier SOS.

Unless you are arguing that overall playing SEC teams is so much harder that it is a wash, but the stats clearly do NOT show that.

But if you are just saying that there isn't any reason to assume that a given team in the Pac-12 is going to have a stronger SOS vs a given team in the SEC, then no argument from me. Of course it may very well be the case that any particular team could happen to have a higher SOS based on what actual teams they play, but overall it is clear that the Pac-12 has made the hardest road to follow with their "contenders" playing 10 conference opponents to other conferences 9 (with the tenth replaced with a patsy, by and large).

Without getting into Sagarin rankings (which I used to love for individual team rankings, but with a revised formula seemed jacked up last year and have always seemed iffy for conference rankings), keep in mind that the SEC with an 8 game schedule and 14 teams is two conferences for all intents and purposes.

The SEC West teams only play 2 games against the SEC East. So if we consider a team like LSU or Auburn, one of those 2 games is locked in against a high quality SEC East team and then a random team from the East. So are 6 games in the SEC West, 1 game against Florida or UGA, and 1 random game in the SEC East more challenging than 9 in the Pac 12?

[Berkut]

Why would we only consider LSU or Auburn?

We don't have to imagine any of this. The numbers are right there.

LSU SOS in 2013: 25
Auburn SOS: 13
Alabama: 39
Arkansas: 12
Missouri: 24

Stanford: 1
Oregon: 29
UCLA: 7
Washington: 17
Arizona State: 2


Is the schedules in the Pac-12 tougher? Survey says: Uhh, duh. It isn't even very close. Nor should you expect it to be - how could replacing a conference opponent with some patsy result in anything else?