10 interpretations of who started WW1

[crazy canuck]

I don't know.  Russia and Germany versus France, Britain, Italy and Austria would still have a rough time of it.  They still end up blockaded.

I am not sure why Italy would fight on the same side as A-H in any circumstances.  That being said I am reasonably sure it wouldnt matter.  Also there was no obvious reason for Germany and Britain to be enemies.  They were natural allies since they didnt have any interest in the others sphere of influence.  It was only after the Kaiser got rid of Hindenburg, started having dreams of an overseas empire and began building a navy to compete with Britain that things went wrong in the relationship.

If Germany had not blundered it could have continued to have a free hand in any future conflict with France and that fact would likely have guarranteed peace amongst the major powers for some time to come.  The Balkan conflicts would have been isolated to regional conflicts that the major powers could had ignored.  The only potential spark that might have brought in the great powers is if the Balkan conflict somehow interfered with British interests and that somehow brought them into conflict with Russia.  But in those circumstances its hard to imagine that conflict involving France and Germany.

Executive summary - the biggest mistake was kicking Hindenburg out of government leaving the Kaiser and his merry band of amateurs free to pursue their suicidal foreign policy.

[crazy canuck]

I don't know.  Russia and Germany versus France, Britain, Italy and Austria would still have a rough time of it.  They still end up blockaded.

The blockade would mean a lot less with access to Russia's resources.  Italy would be a non-factor, or possibly a German ally (they went to war against Austria in 1915).  They would probably stay out of this war, though.  Austria would be crushed by the Russians, and Germany would arguably be a lot stronger in the west with only some mountain passes to hold for most of their border with Austria-Hungary.  They'd need to defend Bavaria for the time it took Austria-Hungary to crumble, but the Austrians would probably be on the defensive on that front, too.

Agreed.  The Russians had success against A-H in the War.  It was only when German divisions were sent to aid the Austrians that the Russians were pushed back. 

[grumbler]

I don't know.  Russia and Germany versus France, Britain, Italy and Austria would still have a rough time of it.  They still end up blockaded.

I am not sure why Italy would fight on the same side as A-H in any circumstances.  That being said I am reasonably sure it wouldnt matter.  Also there was no obvious reason for Germany and Britain to be enemies.  They were natural allies since they didnt have any interest in the others sphere of influence.  It was only after the Kaiser got rid of Hindenburg, started having dreams of an overseas empire and began building a navy to compete with Britain that things went wrong in the relationship.

If Germany had not blundered it could have continued to have a free hand in any future conflict with France and that fact would likely have guarranteed peace amongst the major powers for some time to come.  The Balkan conflicts would have been isolated to regional conflicts that the major powers could had ignored.  The only potential spark that might have brought in the great powers is if the Balkan conflict somehow interfered with British interests and that somehow brought them into conflict with Russia.  But in those circumstances its hard to imagine that conflict involving France and Germany.

Executive summary - the biggest mistake was kicking Hindenburg out of government leaving the Kaiser and his merry band of amateurs free to pursue their suicidal foreign policy.

I assume you mean Bismarck, not Hindenburg.  Bismarck was 75 years old when he was retired. he wouldn't live that long after that anyway, so the issue wasn't his retirement, but his replacement with yes-men.  had that happened with his death 7 years later, it wouldn't have made much difference, I don't think.  Maybe he could have educated the kaiser in that time, though.  that may have made a difference.

[crazy canuck]

I don't know.  Russia and Germany versus France, Britain, Italy and Austria would still have a rough time of it.  They still end up blockaded.

I am not sure why Italy would fight on the same side as A-H in any circumstances.  That being said I am reasonably sure it wouldnt matter.  Also there was no obvious reason for Germany and Britain to be enemies.  They were natural allies since they didnt have any interest in the others sphere of influence.  It was only after the Kaiser got rid of Hindenburg, started having dreams of an overseas empire and began building a navy to compete with Britain that things went wrong in the relationship.

If Germany had not blundered it could have continued to have a free hand in any future conflict with France and that fact would likely have guarranteed peace amongst the major powers for some time to come.  The Balkan conflicts would have been isolated to regional conflicts that the major powers could had ignored.  The only potential spark that might have brought in the great powers is if the Balkan conflict somehow interfered with British interests and that somehow brought them into conflict with Russia.  But in those circumstances its hard to imagine that conflict involving France and Germany.

Executive summary - the biggest mistake was kicking Hindenburg out of government leaving the Kaiser and his merry band of amateurs free to pursue their suicidal foreign policy.

I assume you mean Bismarck, not Hindenburg. 

Yep, I had a brain cramp

[jimmy olsen]

I don't know.  Russia and Germany versus France, Britain, Italy and Austria would still have a rough time of it.  They still end up blockaded.

The blockade would mean a lot less with access to Russia's resources.  Italy would be a non-factor, or possibly a German ally (they went to war against Austria in 1915).  They would probably stay out of this war, though.  Austria would be crushed by the Russians, and Germany would arguably be a lot stronger in the west with only some mountain passes to hold for most of their border with Austria-Hungary.  They'd need to defend Bavaria for the time it took Austria-Hungary to crumble, but the Austrians would probably be on the defensive on that front, too.

Why would Italy stay out of the war? She has irredentist claims against Austria and France.

Japan would probably enter the war on the side of the Entente though, so that's a factor that shouldn't be overlooked.

[Valmy]

The Germans were put in an impossible position by their geography.  Obviously, a winning coalition wasn't available to them, since the English-speaking nations were committed to preventing one country from dominating Europe, and their position in Central Europe allowed them to be easily cut off from the world market by Britain.

Which is why I thought it was in their best interests to have a friendly France.  If they had been a bit more gentlemanly in 1871 things would have gone much better for them. France also did not need continental rivalries while they pursued a world empire.  The France-German rivalry was one destructive to both country's interests and ultimately fatal to them.  France had a long history of having German allies so it was not something that was inevitable or something.

[grumbler]

Why would Italy stay out of the war? She has irredentist claims against Austria and France.

She also had a long coastline and was hyper-vulnerable to British blockade of her coastal trade.  If she thought the war might be short, she might risk fighting against a coalition that included Britain, but not otherwise.

Japan would probably enter the war on the side of the Entente though, so that's a factor that shouldn't be overlooked.

I think that's a factor that can be safely overlooked! 

Japan's entry, as historically, would be virtually meaningless.

[jimmy olsen]

Why would Italy stay out of the war? She has irredentist claims against Austria and France.

She also had a long coastline and was hyper-vulnerable to British blockade of her coastal trade.  If she thought the war might be short, she might risk fighting against a coalition that included Britain, but not otherwise.

Japan would probably enter the war on the side of the Entente though, so that's a factor that shouldn't be overlooked.

I think that's a factor that can be safely overlooked! 

Japan's entry, as historically, would be virtually meaningless.

Everybody thought the war would be short though.

Japan had no one to attack historically. In this situation she has the Russian Far East and their Manchurian sphere of influence in her sights.

[grumbler]

Which is why I thought it was in their best interests to have a friendly France.  If they had been a bit more gentlemanly in 1871 things would have gone much better for them. France also did not need continental rivalries while they pursued a world empire.  The France-German rivalry was one destructive to both country's interests and ultimately fatal to them.  France had a long history of having German allies so it was not something that was inevitable or something.

Bismarck saw a humbling of France as an essential element of his pan-German political strategy.  That isn't to say that a later deal couldn't have been struck to, say, return French-speaking Lorraine to France whilst keeping German-speaking Alsace.

[Valmy]

Bismarck saw a humbling of France as an essential element of his pan-German political strategy. 

The way the Prussians and their allies defeated them was humbling enough.  Totally humiliating them, doing things like having a victory parade in Paris and so forth, just made his new Reich an implacable enemy which turned out to be a poison pill.  Now I do think France should have found some way to get past it, but Bismark sure did not make it politically easy for them to do so even if they had wanted to.

[Razgovory]

The Germans were put in an impossible position by their geography.  Obviously, a winning coalition wasn't available to them, since the English-speaking nations were committed to preventing one country from dominating Europe, and their position in Central Europe allowed them to be easily cut off from the world market by Britain.

Which is why I thought it was in their best interests to have a friendly France.  If they had been a bit more gentlemanly in 1871 things would have gone much better for them. France also did not need continental rivalries while they pursued a world empire.  The France-German rivalry was one destructive to both country's interests and ultimately fatal to them.  France had a long history of having German allies so it was not something that was inevitable or something.

I wonder if it would have been possible to create a demilitarized zone in the Alsace-Lorraine, make it an autonomous self governing part of the German empire and get a bunch of the great powers to sign a treaty that claims if someone invades the area with an army, that all the signatories would declare war on the aggressor power.

[Valmy]

I wonder if it would have been possible to create a demilitarized zone in the Alsace-Lorraine, make it an autonomous self governing part of the German empire and get a bunch of the great powers to sign a treaty that claims if someone invades the area with an army, that all the signatories would declare war on the aggressor power.

Remember when they did that with Belgium?  Worked great.  But yeah Germany screwed up again here but not making Alsace-Lorraine an equal member of the German Empire.  Instead it was...some bizarre category 'Reichsland'.  They would have been better served playing up a separate Alsace-Lorraine identity.

[Sheilbh]

I wouldn't call it an impossible position. The first war was a toss up they could have won if different decisions had been made.

Surely it was a toss up or Germany made a series of wrong choices?

[Valmy]

Japan had no one to attack historically. In this situation she has the Russian Far East and their Manchurian sphere of influence in her sights.

Wow that would have been a disaster for Japan.  Attacking across hundreds of miles in desolate conditions with a tenuous supply line?  I think the Russians know to handle that one.

[HVC]

Japan had no one to attack historically. In this situation she has the Russian Far East and their Manchurian sphere of influence in her sights.

Wow that would have been a disaster for Japan.  Attacking across hundreds of miles in desolate conditions with a tenuous supply line?  I think the Russians know to handle that one.

you forget that in Tim's scenario japan has steam powered mechas.