Hazel Blears' resignation leaves Gordon Brown's premiership in crisis

[Richard Hakluyt]

At this point I think some Labour party people may be worried that the decline in their party's fortunes could become terminal if Brown is allowed to continue. They will lose the next election regardless, the question curreently being posed is wheter they will ever win another election.

[Sheilbh]

At this point I think some Labour party people may be worried that the decline in their party's fortunes could become terminal if Brown is allowed to continue. They will lose the next election regardless, the question curreently being posed is wheter they will ever win another election.

Indeed.  He's like Michael Foot without the charisma, integrity or intellgence

[Richard Hakluyt]

Well now, Foot was merely guilty of being a socialist in a socialist party 

Whereas one is completely baffled as to what Brown thinks he is standing for.

The Labour party does have one thing going for it, the Tories are looking pretty clueless as well; but that doesn't help the country though 

[Neil]

Is there really that kind of feeling around, like it might be the end of Labour?

[alfred russel]

At this point I think some Labour party people may be worried that the decline in their party's fortunes could become terminal if Brown is allowed to continue. They will lose the next election regardless, the question curreently being posed is wheter they will ever win another election.

I'm not all that knowledgeable about British politics, but why do you need a viable Labor Party? Why can't the Liberal Democrats be the mantle for the left?

[Sheilbh]

I'm not all that knowledgeable about British politics, but why do you need a viable Labor Party? Why can't the Liberal Democrats be the mantle for the left?

Well you don't need a viable Labour party but the decline of one of the big two is a rare event in British politics.  The last time it happened was about 80-90 years ago.

[Richard Hakluyt]

At this point I think some Labour party people may be worried that the decline in their party's fortunes could become terminal if Brown is allowed to continue. They will lose the next election regardless, the question curreently being posed is wheter they will ever win another election.

I'm not all that knowledgeable about British politics, but why do you need a viable Labor Party? Why can't the Liberal Democrats be the mantle for the left?

As Sheilbh says, the electoral system (first past the post) favours a two-party system; getting 20% of the votes in every constituency in the country gets you nowhere. However, there are areas of instability, critical points where the established main parties are vulnerable. Labour's share of the vote, according to opinion polls, is now entering the territory where they could lose many constituencies and suddenly become a minor party.

I think they will recover, but it is no longer the case that they can take this for granted.

[alfred russel]

[quote author=Richard Hakluyt link=topic=1089.msg48602#msg48602

As Sheilbh says, the electoral system (first past the post) favours a two-party system; getting 20% of the votes in every constituency in the country gets you nowhere. However, there are areas of instability, critical points where the established main parties are vulnerable. Labour's share of the vote, according to opinion polls, is now entering the territory where they could lose many constituencies and suddenly become a minor party.

I think they will recover, but it is no longer the case that they can take this for granted.
[/quote]

Do you think that would be for the best? There is always the danger with a third party that an ideologically less popular party gains power because the other two parties split the majority of votes.

[Sheilbh]

Do you think that would be for the best? There is always the danger with a third party that an ideologically less popular party gains power because the other two parties split the majority of votes.

I think Labour will still win a lot more seats than the Lib Dems because the Lib Dems gain seats when the Tories lose far more than they do when Labour lose and a resurgent Tory party will take back seats like Winchester that are, naturally, Tory not Lib Dem. 

The effect you describe also happens far more on a constituency basis rather than a nationwide basis and I think party support fluctuates far more than in the US. 

I actually think that if Labour were to become the third party one of the other two would have to change in a major way.  You would have no party that would really represent cities, the working class in any way or the North, Wales or Scotland.  You'd have two middle class effete Southern parties fighting to run the country.

[Barrister]

Do you think that would be for the best? There is always the danger with a third party that an ideologically less popular party gains power because the other two parties split the majority of votes.

I think Labour will still win a lot more seats than the Lib Dems because the Lib Dems gain seats when the Tories lose far more than they do when Labour lose and a resurgent Tory party will take back seats like Winchester that are, naturally, Tory not Lib Dem. 

The effect you describe also happens far more on a constituency basis rather than a nationwide basis and I think party support fluctuates far more than in the US. 

I actually think that if Labour were to become the third party one of the other two would have to change in a major way.  You would have no party that would really represent cities, the working class in any way or the North, Wales or Scotland.  You'd have two middle class effete Southern parties fighting to run the country.

ii I don't need to know very much about British politics to agree with you.

In order to have a major party practically disappear you need a new party to poach the old's party's base supporters, not just its marginal supporters.

In 1993 in Canada we saw the rise of two new parties, Reform and the Bloc, and the apparent death of two others, the formerly governing PCs (reduced to two seats) and the NDP (reduced to 7 seats I think).  PCs lost their firmest base to the right-wing Reform Party, whereas the socialist NDP lost some votes to Reform but mostly to the centre-left Liberals.

Anyways, the PCs without their base never recovered and eventually merged into Reform.  BUt the union supporters, socialists, etc were never seriously tempted by the Liberals so the NDP emerged within a couple of elections as a viable party once again.

So yeah, unless some party can position itself for that Labour base in the north and with union supporters I'm not worried about the death of Labour in the long run.

[Neil]

You would have no party that would really represent cities, the working class in any way or the North, Wales or Scotland.  You'd have two middle class effete Southern parties fighting to run the country.

And this is a problem why?

[Sheilbh]

So yeah, unless some party can position itself for that Labour base in the north and with union supporters I'm not worried about the death of Labour in the long run.

I think your comparison's pretty good.  I'd say it's less about unions, which aren't strong in this country, than culture.  There are places that are Labour because they're Labour.  As Kensington and Chelsea will always vote Tory regardless of the Tory party so Gorbals is likely to support Labour.  I don't think those areas will ever vote Tory because of memories of Thatcherism devastating those cities and communities.  In this Euro election though many may vote BNP.  Labour's working class base is, I think, the reason for the policies it has that have caused me and other middle class folks like me most trouble: anti-terrorism laws, anti-immigration stance, ID cards, ASBOs and so on.  Those are issues that matter in the communities many Labour MPs represent because they actually live with a higher level of crime and a more ghettoised city than I do.  I don't see how two fundamentally pretty liberal, effete Southern parties could ever hope to make any in-roads without a serious change.

However I think the one thing your analogy's missing is the full impact of the expenses scandal.  I'm not as sure that the really bad cases will be washed away and the reasonable expense claims will be forgiven.  I think there could be a tremendous anti-incumbent vote and given that MPs in safe seats claim up to 50% more on expenses they could be far more in danger than marginal MPs.  We could face the very weird situation in this election where marginal seats are still fought in a traditional way over manifestos and local issues but traditional Labour, Tory and Lib Dem strongholds have serious fights with either another party or an independent over that single issue.  I think we could face a very British version of the collapse of Italy's tangentopoli.  No real principle's at stake and the money in question is petty cash compared to the Italians

[alfred russel]

I think Labour will still win a lot more seats than the Lib Dems because the Lib Dems gain seats when the Tories lose far more than they do when Labour lose and a resurgent Tory party will take back seats like Winchester that are, naturally, Tory not Lib Dem. 

The effect you describe also happens far more on a constituency basis rather than a nationwide basis and I think party support fluctuates far more than in the US. 

I actually think that if Labour were to become the third party one of the other two would have to change in a major way.  You would have no party that would really represent cities, the working class in any way or the North, Wales or Scotland.  You'd have two middle class effete Southern parties fighting to run the country.

You certainly know better than me, and amateur opinion from 5,000 miles away is that the Labor Party is not going to die. But when I look at the parties, whatever there history might have been, you have three middle class effete parties.

[Barrister]

However I think the one thing your analogy's missing is the full impact of the expenses scandal.  I'm not as sure that the really bad cases will be washed away and the reasonable expense claims will be forgiven.  I think there could be a tremendous anti-incumbent vote and given that MPs in safe seats claim up to 50% more on expenses they could be far more in danger than marginal MPs.  We could face the very weird situation in this election where marginal seats are still fought in a traditional way over manifestos and local issues but traditional Labour, Tory and Lib Dem strongholds have serious fights with either another party or an independent over that single issue.  I think we could face a very British version of the collapse of Italy's tangentopoli.  No real principle's at stake and the money in question is petty cash compared to the Italians

Well the thing is that from 1000s of kms away I can't possibly assess the impact of the expenses scandal on an upcoming election.  Good God I have no idea.

But looking at the long term the effect of any individual scandal fades into the distance.  There you can look at more basic ideas of political identification and various groups and draw some conclusions.

[Legbiter]

Couldn't have happened to a nicer Save the World, Mr International Harmony Hat shitbag.

My bet is that Brown will continue to drone on about statistics in his sweaty, Soviet Tractor Factory Style charm until catapulted out of office sometime next spring.