Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Queequeg]

The life expectancy for male Ukranians is 66 years, not many pensions will be needed.

This isn't a serious argument is it?  Their fertility rate is way below replacement levels and has been for decades.  Their population has declined by 8 million since independence.  They already spend 1/3rd of GDP on pensions and how is that going to get better with fertility rates way below replacement level?

[Queequeg]

I'm exhausted and I'm arguing against half the board, give me a break.   

You don't like it, cossack, take it over to Languish.ru 

I enjoy it; you guys are smart and are good at finding wholes in my argument.  If I look incoherent, though, it's less ADHD than exhaustion and the anti-Russian bukkake I am getting. 

[Ed Anger]

I'm available for export. 

[The Larch]

The life expectancy for male Ukranians is 66 years, not many pensions will be needed.

Boy, GM would've liked that for its workers.

The culprits are the usual suspects of post Soviet life, alcoholism, smoking, environmental pollution, bad diets and declining healthcare. At the over 65 age bracket women outnumber men 2 to 1. The mail order bride "industry" must exist for a reason.

Back to demographics, it seems that fertility wise the worst placed regions are precisely the problematic eastern ones:

[Admiral Yi]

This isn't a serious argument is it?  Their fertility rate is way below replacement levels and has been for decades.  Their population has declined by 8 million since independence.  They already spend 1/3rd of GDP on pensions and how is that going to get better with fertility rates way below replacement level?

Fertility rate per se and overall population are not relevant to the question of funding pensions; for that all you care about is workers per retiree.  So Larch's point about Ukrainian men dropping dead at 66 is totally relevant.

[The Larch]

The life expectancy for male Ukranians is 66 years, not many pensions will be needed.

This isn't a serious argument is it?  Their fertility rate is way below replacement levels and has been for decades.  Their population has declined by 8 million since independence.  They already spend 1/3rd of GDP on pensions and how is that going to get better with fertility rates way below replacement level?

No, it's a flippant coment.  Besides, there are still the women, of course. 

It seems that things are slowly improving natality wise, though, since 2008 rates have improved and are now roughly on par with western Europe. Its population pyramid is still scary, particulary if you look at the men's side. It's hard being a post Soviet male. Once they hit 60 they just start to vanish.



The hit on the aftermath of the USSR's dissintegration was massive, though. No doubt about that.

[Queequeg]

In any case, if I were given carte blanche I'd probably do the following;
1) New constitution, German/Dutch-style parliamentary republic with established minority parties.  Included in Constitution are linguistic, religious, property rights. 
2) Some kind of comprehensive de-Oligarchization.  I don't know what this would look like, I can't think of real successful precedents. 
3) German-style education system, with focus on skill adult skill development.
4) American and European military connections, but no NATO inclusion.  That's not really supported in Ukraine, from what I've seen, anyway. 
5) Minimized or no period of shock or austerity.  Ukrainian political system can't handle it, and instability would be big red sign "RUSSIA PLEASE INVADE US".
6) Massive incentives for American and European investment in Ukraine.
7) Massive reform of childcare system, incentives for child rearing, active attempt at addressing horrendous gender inequality in Ukraine. 

[Queequeg]

The life expectancy for male Ukranians is 66 years, not many pensions will be needed.

This isn't a serious argument is it?  Their fertility rate is way below replacement levels and has been for decades.  Their population has declined by 8 million since independence.  They already spend 1/3rd of GDP on pensions and how is that going to get better with fertility rates way below replacement level?

No, it's a flippant coment.  Besides, there are still the women, of course. 

It seems that things are slowly improving natality wise, though, since 2008 rates have improved and are now roughly on par with western Europe. Its population pyramid is still scary, particulary if you look at the men's side. It's hard being a post Soviet male. Once they hit 60 they just start to die of liver cirrhosis.

Fixed.

[Neil]

I'm exhausted and I'm arguing against half the board, give me a break.   

You don't like it, cossack, take it over to Languish.ru 

It crashed.  Russian Neil doesn't ban pornbots.

And why is Spellus talking about a non-evil Russia?  Russia has been a cancer on the world ever since it stopped being a forgotten backwater.

[Queequeg]

That was a hypothetical, and Germany killed way more non-Germans than the Soviets or Russians killed non-Russians/Soviets.

[Neil]

That was a hypothetical, and Germany killed way more non-Germans than the Soviets or Russians killed non-Russians/Soviets.

Yeah, but Germany also had an advanced culture.  They had redeeming qualities.  And I don't excuse various Russian atrocities just because they were perpetrated on various subject peoples under the aegis of the Soviet Union.

[The Larch]

The life expectancy for male Ukranians is 66 years, not many pensions will be needed.

This isn't a serious argument is it?  Their fertility rate is way below replacement levels and has been for decades.  Their population has declined by 8 million since independence.  They already spend 1/3rd of GDP on pensions and how is that going to get better with fertility rates way below replacement level?

No, it's a flippant coment.  Besides, there are still the women, of course. 

It seems that things are slowly improving natality wise, though, since 2008 rates have improved and are now roughly on par with western Europe. Its population pyramid is still scary, particulary if you look at the men's side. It's hard being a post Soviet male. Once they hit 60 they just start to die of liver cirrhosis.

Fixed.

Already mentioned that in a previous post, amongst some other reasons. 

Regarding the fertility map I posted, do you know which might be the reason or reasons of the great East-West divide in Ukraine? It seems that the further East you go in the country, the worst the fertility rate is.

[Queequeg]

had an advanced culture.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKYyfT7UFAY
Here's the Wishbone episode on Gogol's Inspector General.

[DGuller]

Regarding the fertility map I posted, do you know which might be the reason or reasons of the great East-West divide in Ukraine? It seems that the further East you go in the country, the worst the fertility rate is.

Catholicism?  That's the best explanation I can come up with.

[Queequeg]

Regarding the fertility map I posted, do you know which might be the reason or reasons of the great East-West divide in Ukraine? It seems that the further East you go in the country, the worst the fertility rate is.

I don't know at all, and that's a fascinating map.

Speculation; Western Ukraine still has pretty substantial agricultural population, so they have a naturally higher birth rate.  Eastern Ukraine is industrial and urban, so they wouldn't have any economic inventive to have more children. 

A lot of this relates to gender disparities in the Post-Soviet sphere and the complete disaster that is Eastern European childcare.  It's despicable on all sides.  I don't know the specifics, though.