Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Valmy]

That might have changed a little since 1991

I was about to say...given the nature of the war I don't think you can expect 1991 data to still be accurate.

[Valmy]

Yeah, it cries out for some clean-up.

Cleansing if you will.

[crazy canuck]

Russian would want Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine if the puppet Ukranian regime was still in place.  Now that it is gone Russia's hand was forced.  You are quite correct that Putin's best move was likely to wait to see what provocation might occur before he intervened.  But that is looking through this with Western eyes.  I dont think he much cares what the West thinks.  He just doesnt want Ukraine to align with the West in any manner.

The problem with your theory is you are assuming that all the Russians will control when all is said and done is Crimea.  I think it much more likely that what Russia will get out of this is the Crimea and a Ukraine that can never align itself with the West.

If Russia has the clout to force Ukraine to stay out of the West's orbit - Crimea or not - why is Putin's "hand forced" by regime change? No matter what the regime, they would have to dance to his tune.

You might have read about it in the news.  The stooge President was forced to leave in the middle of the night.

[Malthus]

Russian would want Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine if the puppet Ukranian regime was still in place.  Now that it is gone Russia's hand was forced.  You are quite correct that Putin's best move was likely to wait to see what provocation might occur before he intervened.  But that is looking through this with Western eyes.  I dont think he much cares what the West thinks.  He just doesnt want Ukraine to align with the West in any manner.

The problem with your theory is you are assuming that all the Russians will control when all is said and done is Crimea.  I think it much more likely that what Russia will get out of this is the Crimea and a Ukraine that can never align itself with the West.

If Russia has the clout to force Ukraine to stay out of the West's orbit - Crimea or not - why is Putin's "hand forced" by regime change? No matter what the regime, they would have to dance to his tune.

You might have read about it in the news.  The stooge President was forced to leave in the middle of the night.

You aren't really addressing my point, are you. 

Yes, I know that the stooge made a run for it. That doesn't mean that the new guys can magically declare Ukraine free from Russian influence, no matter how much they might want to.

[Valmy]

You aren't really addressing my point, are you. 

Yes, I know that the stooge made a run for it. That doesn't mean that the new guys can magically declare Ukraine free from Russian influence, no matter how much they might want to.

I know several Presidents of Mexico have tried magically declaring themselves free from US influence.

[Tamas]

Russian would want Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine if the puppet Ukranian regime was still in place.  Now that it is gone Russia's hand was forced.  You are quite correct that Putin's best move was likely to wait to see what provocation might occur before he intervened.  But that is looking through this with Western eyes.  I dont think he much cares what the West thinks.  He just doesnt want Ukraine to align with the West in any manner.

The problem with your theory is you are assuming that all the Russians will control when all is said and done is Crimea.  I think it much more likely that what Russia will get out of this is the Crimea and a Ukraine that can never align itself with the West.

If Russia has the clout to force Ukraine to stay out of the West's orbit - Crimea or not - why is Putin's "hand forced" by regime change? No matter what the regime, they would have to dance to his tune.

You might have read about it in the news.  The stooge President was forced to leave in the middle of the night.

You aren't really addressing my point, are you. 

Yes, I know that the stooge made a run for it. That doesn't mean that the new guys can magically declare Ukraine free from Russian influence, no matter how much they might want to.

It is either a purely idiotic power play, grabbing more territory 19th century way, or at least part of it is a desire to set an example for the forces who would think about pulling the same shit in Belorussia or Russia.

[crazy canuck]

Russian would want Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine if the puppet Ukranian regime was still in place.  Now that it is gone Russia's hand was forced.  You are quite correct that Putin's best move was likely to wait to see what provocation might occur before he intervened.  But that is looking through this with Western eyes.  I dont think he much cares what the West thinks.  He just doesnt want Ukraine to align with the West in any manner.

The problem with your theory is you are assuming that all the Russians will control when all is said and done is Crimea.  I think it much more likely that what Russia will get out of this is the Crimea and a Ukraine that can never align itself with the West.

If Russia has the clout to force Ukraine to stay out of the West's orbit - Crimea or not - why is Putin's "hand forced" by regime change? No matter what the regime, they would have to dance to his tune.

You might have read about it in the news.  The stooge President was forced to leave in the middle of the night.

You aren't really addressing my point, are you. 

Yes, I know that the stooge made a run for it. That doesn't mean that the new guys can magically declare Ukraine free from Russian influence, no matter how much they might want to.

Actually I thought it was you that wasnt addressing my point.  Your contradiction only makes sense if all things remained the same.  They didnt.  Ukraine under its current leadership will most definitely move toward the West.  Putin cannot allow that to happen.

[Legbiter]

Yes, I know that the stooge made a run for it. That doesn't mean that the new guys can magically declare Ukraine free from Russian influence, no matter how much they might want to.

The Russian method has been to bribe everyone in the Ukrainian Rada and then have them compete against each other in who can be the biggest stooge.

[Valmy]

The Russian method has been to bribe everyone in the Ukrainian Rada and then have them compete against each other in who can be the biggest stooge.

Well that is pretty much how the USSR ran the Warsaw Pact.

[Warspite]

If Crimea gets an internationally recognised vote on seceding to Russia, will Hungarian lands next to the Hungarian border get the same in neighbouring countries? At many places they are well over 60% in population. What about Bosnian Serbs? etc.

Well the principle would be that if the change of territory is peacefully arrived at by a process both sides agree is fair and open, then it doesn't matter what happens. This is the logic of South Sudan's secession. And it is the logic of Scotland's possible detatchment from the UK. Scotland is a recognised territorial unit, too, which is important.

Bosnian Serbs won't get a shot at secession because the areas of ethnic supermajority they currently inhabit were engineered by ethnic cleansing - though it will be interesting to see what the first post-1991 census says (which I think took place last year or will take place this year). And, unlike Kosovo, there has never been the political unit of a Serbian Bosnia other than the 1992-95 war.

[Malthus]

Russian would want Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine if the puppet Ukranian regime was still in place.  Now that it is gone Russia's hand was forced.  You are quite correct that Putin's best move was likely to wait to see what provocation might occur before he intervened.  But that is looking through this with Western eyes.  I dont think he much cares what the West thinks.  He just doesnt want Ukraine to align with the West in any manner.

The problem with your theory is you are assuming that all the Russians will control when all is said and done is Crimea.  I think it much more likely that what Russia will get out of this is the Crimea and a Ukraine that can never align itself with the West.

If Russia has the clout to force Ukraine to stay out of the West's orbit - Crimea or not - why is Putin's "hand forced" by regime change? No matter what the regime, they would have to dance to his tune.

You might have read about it in the news.  The stooge President was forced to leave in the middle of the night.

You aren't really addressing my point, are you. 

Yes, I know that the stooge made a run for it. That doesn't mean that the new guys can magically declare Ukraine free from Russian influence, no matter how much they might want to.

Actually I thought it was you that wasnt addressing my point.  Your contradiction only makes sense if all things remained the same.  They didnt.  Ukraine under its current leadership will most definitely move toward the West.  Putin cannot allow that to happen.

Yes, no doubt they would like to, and in fact they wish to join the EU, which is what sparked the whole thing in the first place. However, their ability to join NATO is much more in doubt.

Detatching Crimea by force strikes me as an unlikely way for Russia to prevent a Westward drift. More likely to accelerate it, never mind scaring every other non-NATO country into thinking the same.   

A better theory is that, by cracking down hard, the real message is being sent to domestic would-be protestors.

[Malthus]

If Crimea gets an internationally recognised vote on seceding to Russia, will Hungarian lands next to the Hungarian border get the same in neighbouring countries? At many places they are well over 60% in population. What about Bosnian Serbs? etc.

Well the principle would be that if the change of territory is peacefully arrived at by a process both sides agree is fair and open, then it doesn't matter what happens. This is the logic of South Sudan's secession. And it is the logic of Scotland's possible detatchment from the UK. Scotland is a recognised territorial unit, too, which is important.

Bosnian Serbs won't get a shot at secession because the areas of ethnic supermajority they currently inhabit were engineered by ethnic cleansing - though it will be interesting to see what the first post-1991 census says (which I think took place last year or will take place this year). And, unlike Kosovo, there has never been the political unit of a Serbian Bosnia other than the 1992-95 war.

The current ethnic-Russian majority in Crimea is the result of ethnic cleansing, too.

[crazy canuck]

Russian would want Crimea to remain a part of Ukraine if the puppet Ukranian regime was still in place.  Now that it is gone Russia's hand was forced.  You are quite correct that Putin's best move was likely to wait to see what provocation might occur before he intervened.  But that is looking through this with Western eyes.  I dont think he much cares what the West thinks.  He just doesnt want Ukraine to align with the West in any manner.

The problem with your theory is you are assuming that all the Russians will control when all is said and done is Crimea.  I think it much more likely that what Russia will get out of this is the Crimea and a Ukraine that can never align itself with the West.

If Russia has the clout to force Ukraine to stay out of the West's orbit - Crimea or not - why is Putin's "hand forced" by regime change? No matter what the regime, they would have to dance to his tune.

You might have read about it in the news.  The stooge President was forced to leave in the middle of the night.

You aren't really addressing my point, are you. 

Yes, I know that the stooge made a run for it. That doesn't mean that the new guys can magically declare Ukraine free from Russian influence, no matter how much they might want to.

Actually I thought it was you that wasnt addressing my point.  Your contradiction only makes sense if all things remained the same.  They didnt.  Ukraine under its current leadership will most definitely move toward the West.  Putin cannot allow that to happen.

Yes, no doubt they would like to, and in fact they wish to join the EU, which is what sparked the whole thing in the first place. However, their ability to join NATO is much more in doubt.

Detatching Crimea by force strikes me as an unlikely way for Russia to prevent a Westward drift. More likely to accelerate it, never mind scaring every other non-NATO country into thinking the same.   

A better theory is that, by cracking down hard, the real message is being sent to domestic would-be protestors.

You are repeating the same mistake.  Why do you think Russia will stop at merely "detaching" Crimea.   It is much more likely that once this is done there will be assurances that Ukraine at the very least will follow the Finland model.  Which is why I find it so ironic that Finland is now reconsidering NATO as a result of what is occuring in the Ukraine. 

[Queequeg]

And, unlike Kosovo, there has never been the political unit of a Serbian Bosnia other than the 1992-95 war.

Uh.  When in history has there ever been an independent Muslim Kosovo Albanian state? 

[Valmy]

Uh.  When in history has there ever been an independent Muslim Kosovo Albanian state? 

He said political unit, not an independent state.  Wyoming is a political unit but it has never been independent.