Ukraine's European Revolution?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Spain has actually been building a strategic gas reserve using these kind of natural caverns as reservoirs. Would be really surprised if it's not something most developed countries have been doing.

There's a little bit of a difference between a strategic reserve and what I was just talking about. I was talking about private gas storage concerns, who basically make money off of storing gas in a few different ways, one is by charging a fee per volume to companies that need to store gas and the other is by arbitraging based on the differential in gas prices between warm and cold months (mild winters tend to push many of these companies into the red.)

A strategic reserve is usually government initiated for national security type purposes. I don't know if the U.S. has a  strategic reserve of gas, but we do have a strategic reserve of liquid petroleum, much of it in Texas caverns.

[crazy canuck]

It is true that some politicians do enter into rather shady dealings.  But is there any evidence that Merkle is actually in the "pocket" of energy interests or is she merely attempting to protect the interests of Germany writ large?  Absent evidence to the contrary the assumption should be the latter rather than the former.

Now whether you agree that he stance is actually in the interests of Germany in the long wrong is an interesting policy debate.  Reasonable people can disagree on that issue without having to resort to the conclusion that the only reason she made that decision is because she has been paid off.  If it turns out that she has then that would be a very serious matter.

What exactly has Merkel done in this crisis to be worth mentioning so often anyway?

Not much.  Which is why I find it odd that Tamas would think she was being paid off in some way.  And also disappointing.

[The Minsky Moment]

[img]Russkie cartoon

The Star of David on the scythe makes it extra special.
The French may have panache and the Germans industrial efficiency, but when it comes to anti-semitism, you can't beat the Russians for sheer persistence and creativity.

[Zanza]

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/116852/merkel-was-right-putins-lost-his-mind-press-conference

Putin's Press Conference Proved Merkel Right: He's Lost His Mind

In Sunday's New York Times, Peter Baker reported that German Chancellor Angela Merkel had tried talking some sense into Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader has an affinity for the Germans and Merkel especially: He served in the KGB in East Germany, where Merkel grew up. And yet, nothing:

Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said.

If you weren't sure of the veracity of that little reportorial nugget, all doubt should've vanished after Putin's press conference today.

Slouching in a fancy chair in front of a dozen reporters, Putin squirmed and rambled. And rambled and rambled. He was a rainbow of emotion: Serious! angry! bemused! flustered! confused! So confused. Victor Yanukovich is still the acting president of Ukraine, but he can't talk to Ukraine because Ukraine has no president. Ukraine needs elections, but you can't have elections because there is already a president. And no elections will be valid given that there is terrorism in the streets of Ukraine. And how are you going to let just anyone run for president? What if some nationalist punk just pops out like a jack-in-the-box? An anti-Semite? Look at how peaceful the Crimea is, probably thanks to those guys with guns holding it down. Who are they, by the way? Speaking of instability, did you know that the mayor of Dniepropetrovsk is a thief? He cheated "our oligarch, [Chelsea owner Roman] Abramovich" of millions. Just pocketed them! Yanukovich has no political future, I've told him that. He didn't fulfill his obligations as leader of the country. I've told him that. Mr. Putin, what mistakes did Yanukovich make as president? You know, I can't answer that. Not because I don't know the answer, but because it just wouldn't be right of me to say. Did you know they burned someone alive in Kiev? Just like that? Is that what you call a manifestation of democracy? Mr. Putin, what about the snipers in Kiev who were firing on civilians? Who gave them orders to shoot? Those were provocateurs. Didn't you read the reports? They were open source reports. So I don't know what happened there. It's unclear. But did you see the bullets piercing the shields of the Berkut [special police]. That was obvious. As for who gave the order to shoot, I don't know. Yanukovich didn't give that order. He told me. I only know what Yanukovich told me. And I told him, don't do it. You'll bring chaos to your city. And he did it, and they toppled him. Look at that bacchanalia. The American political technologists they did their work well. And this isn't the first time they've done this in Ukraine, no. Sometimes, I get the feeling that these people...these people in America. They are sitting there, in their laboratory, and doing experiments, like on rats. You're not listening to me. I've already said, that yesterday, I met with three colleagues. Colleagues, you're not listening. It's not that Yanukovich said he's not going to sign the agreement with Europe. What he said was that, based on the content of the agreement, having examined it, he did not like it. We have problems. We have a lot of problems in Russia. But they're not as bad as in Ukraine. The Secretary of State. Well. The Secretary of State is not the ultimate authority, is he?

And so on, for about an hour. And much of that, by the way, is direct quotes.

Gone was the old Putin, the one who loves these kinds of press events. He'd come a long way from the painfully awkward gray FSB officer on Larry King, a year into his tenure. He had grown to become the master of public speaking, who had turned his churlish, prison-inflected slang to his benefit. A salty guy in utter command of a crowd. That Putin was not the Putin we saw today. Today's Putin was nervous, angry, cornered, and paranoid, periodically illuminated by flashes of his own righteousness. Here was an authoritarian dancing uncomfortably in his new dictator shoes, squirming in his throne.

For the last few years, it has become something like conventional knowledge in Moscow journalistic circles that Putin was no longer getting good information, that he was surrounded by yes-men who created for him a parallel informational universe. "They're beginning to believe their own propaganda," Gleb Pavlovsky told me when I was in Moscow in December. Pavlovsky had been a close advisor to the early Putin, helping him win his first presidential election in 2000. (When, in 2011, Putin decided to return for a third term as president, Pavlovsky declared the old Putin dead.) And still, it wasn't fully vetted information. We were like astronomers, studying refractions of light that reached us from great distances, and used them to draw our conclusions.

Today's performance, though, put all that speculation to rest. Merkel was absolutely right: Putin has lost it. Unfortunately, it makes him that much harder to deal with.

[crazy canuck]

[img]Russkie cartoon

The Star of David on the scythe makes it extra special.
The French may have panache and the Germans industrial efficiency, but when it comes to anti-semitism, you can't beat the Russians for sheer persistence and creativity.

Didnt notice it.  You have good eyes.

[Jacob]

Interesting article on the history of developments: http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2014/mar/01/ukraine-haze-propaganda/

Apparently the original Maidan protest was organized by a Muslim.

[Sheilbh]

That said, she is not the type to be bought off. I am sure she'll try to further Germany's economic interests, but I very much doubt that she has any interest in enriching herself. She is the opposite of bling-bling or bunga-bunga.

I agree totally. She reminds me a bit of Brown like that, in contrast to their immediate predecessors.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Well, I've heard in the FP press that Obama was wanting the Europeans to "take point" on Ukraine so he could continue his fantasy of American complete disengagement from the world so we can focus on rolling barrels of money to black folk in the cities and AFL-CIO card carriers in the Rust Belt. (I've editorialized part of my last comment.)

But the reality is we have to be the front and center of NATO when it comes to anything concerning Russia, it was that way for the entire Cold War and I don't think the calculus has changed such that it's any different now. The EU is for better or worse what it is, they are slow and deliberate which works for some things but the response to this situation needed to be immediate, fast, and involved. Much as how we responded to issues during the Cold War. The EU isn't unified enough to do that and none of the individual countries is large or powerful enough to be able to credibly do it on their own.

This is one of the few areas American leadership is legitimately needed, and it was lacking throughout the Ukrainian "situation."

I will say this though, and while I respect each country must look out for their own self-interest I would think the West in general would recognize it is in our self-interest to make wars of aggression a thing of the past, to minimize genocides, State sponsorship of terrorism and etc. Carrying that thought forward, I'll just say that I find it "concerning" that anywhere America finds a state sponsor of terrorism or a an autocrat we also find a country Germany does a lot of business with, just sayin'.

[crazy canuck]

That said, she is not the type to be bought off. I am sure she'll try to further Germany's economic interests, but I very much doubt that she has any interest in enriching herself. She is the opposite of bling-bling or bunga-bunga.

I agree totally. She reminds me a bit of Brown like that, in contrast to their immediate predecessors.

You cant have it both ways - either she is in the pocket of energy interests and Tamas is correct or she has no interest in enriching herself 

[Legbiter]

[img]Russkie cartoon

The Star of David on the scythe makes it extra special.
The French may have panache and the Germans industrial efficiency, but when it comes to anti-semitism, you can't beat the Russians for sheer persistence and creativity.

Yep, it's very retro.

[Tamas]

My outrage was largely because of the British position. But its not like Merkel exists in a vacuum either. Just because she cannot be personally bought off it doesn't mean she is free to ignore power plays within her country.

[garbon]

My outrage was largely because of the British position. But its not like Merkel exists in a vacuum either. Just because she cannot be personally bought off it doesn't mean she is free to ignore power plays within her country.

Have we heard more yet about that leaked memo? I wasn't particularly fazed as I didn't even know who gave it credence.

[Zanza]

You cant have it both ways - either she is in the pocket of energy interests and Tamas is correct or she has no interest in enriching herself 

It can actually be both. I would expect her to look out for BASF or the big energy companies and try to get a good deal for them. Her reward are photo-ops with Germany's captains of industry to show off how well she's managing our economy.

But she personally will not get a personal kickback. She lives in a city apartment owned by her husband's employer. Her private car is a Volkswagen Golf and she is not known for spending her holidays on some billionaire's yacht. She even does her grocery shopping herself when she has the time.

[Sheilbh]

Tamas was talking about Western politicians in general, not Merkel in particular. I agree and I think Merkel is not going to go the way Blair and others.

And I've already agreed with Yi that it's not the only motivation and it may not even be the main one - there are normally plenty of very good reasons not to do something. But I think venal motivation is a large and growing part of Europe's policy towards wealthy authoritarian states.

What exactly has Merkel done in this crisis to be worth mentioning so often anyway?

She leads Germany

[Caliga]

My proposed solution:

Ukraine agrees to give the Crimea, all of it to Russia.

Ukraine joins NATO.

I agree.  Oh, Odessa should go back to Russia too.