Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Sheilbh]

Shelf: you can't be suggesting that the *only* reason European governments are resisting economic sanctions "with teeth" is venal self-interest.  Germany in particular: if they shut off the pipeline how do you expect them to keep their power plants running?

Not the only reason, no.

I think it's a big and growing one that goes beyond Russia to the ever-more supine position European politicians assume the nearer they get to Beijing or Doha.

[Berkut]

According to the article and some other sources the guy that said this is just a bag of wind they routinely put out to look tough, but has no actual say in policy. But it is still funny. Apparently he's claimed Russia can tank the US economy too.

Russia can turn us into a nuclear wasteland, so they probably have some ability there.

I actually seriously doubt that.

My suspicion is that their nuclear arsenal in reality works about as well as most of their high tech military equipment - barely, if at all.

Of course, that suspicion is not really enough to make policy on...

I dunno Berkut.  The Russians have only a handful of viable high tech sectors that are world leaders.  They're not bad computer game makers.  And they make some pretty decent rockets.  Remember NASA has to ride Soyuz rockets up to the ISS.

My skepticism is more about how their rocket forces have been maintained than anything else.

[Zanza]

Germany in particular: if they shut off the pipeline how do you expect them to keep their power plants running?

We get about 10.5% of our electricity from gas power plants. While a bit less than half of our gas imports come from Russia, we export half of that amount again. Furthermore Germany exports electricity. So I don't think that electricity production is where Germany (seen isolated - because our gas and electricity exports go to our close neighbors) needs Russian gas too badly. It is industrial applications and heating mostly where we use it a lot. The chemical industry seems to be the biggest user followed by metal working, paper and food production.

[OttoVonBismarck]

From what I've read the German dependence on Russia as its major importer of gas is fairly new, there's other sources of natural gas and since Germany is one of the richest countries in the world it would of course be able to secure those other sources as it would win in a bidding war on a per/dekatherm level. I've also read that there is supposed to be some reserves that could last some number of months as well.

Here in the United States gas storage companies (take natural gas and pump it underground, typically into empty caverns that used to  be filled with gas before it was extracted) hold tons of gas and just sort of chill out with it and try to cash in when the price of gas goes up every winter. I'd be surprised if there wasn't a decent natural gas storage infrastructure in a country like Germany which uses natural gas in power plants and which has a significant chemical industry.

[celedhring]

Spain has actually been building a strategic gas reserve using these kind of natural caverns as reservoirs. Would be really surprised if it's not something most developed countries have been doing.

[Legbiter]

[crazy canuck]

I know that you have only recently departed from a land most politicians probably are in the pockets of someone but in most Western Democracies most politicians also have an eye out for the ramificantions on their actions on the economy and therefore the well being of the citizenry at large.  The British were against financial sanctions because a significant part of the British economy is based on London being a major financial centre and financial sanctions would hurt Britain as well as Russia.  The Germans were against energy sanctions because they get a significant amount of energy commodities from Russia.

I agree with Tamas actually. I think one of the side effects of globalisation has been a liberalisation of ethics.

Yeah the City's got to be a major financial centre, but if our economy really needs us slushing round dirty money then we're already in trouble. The Russian Central Bank estimates that two-thirds of the cash leaving Russia every year is traceable to illegal activities. Europe would rather earn money shuttling that off-shore than trying to help Ukraine, or for that matter to protest human rights abuses in Russia - like Magnitsky.

After that you have the last generation of Western leaders neck deep in dodgy cash. Clinton and Blair have both helped the Nazarbayev family in Kazakhstan either as consultancy or for donations (kick-backs) to their various foundations. Schroeder's still the Chairman of Nord Stream. Sarkozy's thinking of setting up a hedge fund with money from Qatar. That doesn't go into the numerous retired ministers, MPs, Senators and the rest available to lobby Western governments on behalf of foreign potentates. And then we turn to Berlusconi.

I think that article I linked to earlier is right. Putin sees the West as like Brezhnev era apparatchiks. They talked about the Marxist revolution without ever really believing it. Western leaders talk about human rights. But they never dare to do anything to stop the stream of cash, princelings and contracts from Russia, or China, or the Gulf.

And who can blame them. Hollande and Cameron will both be young-ish men when they end up on the dole in the next few years, it'd be madness to piss off potential future employers.

It is true that some politicians do enter into rather shady dealings.  But is there any evidence that Merkle is actually in the "pocket" of energy interests or is she merely attempting to protect the interests of Germany writ large?  Absent evidence to the contrary the assumption should be the latter rather than the former.

Now whether you agree that he stance is actually in the interests of Germany in the long wrong is an interesting policy debate.  Reasonable people can disagree on that issue without having to resort to the conclusion that the only reason she made that decision is because she has been paid off.  If it turns out that she has then that would be a very serious matter.

[Jacob]

You mean, deploy weapons of mass delusion? 

[Neil]

Tweet from Sen. Lindsey Graham:

It started with Benghazi. When you kill Americans and nobody pays a price, you invite this type of aggression.

Putin basically came to the conclusion after Benghazi, Syria, Egypt - everything Obama has been engaged in - he's a weak indecisive leader.

I don't have a problem with Obama being described as a weak indecisive leader, but how Senator Graham got the idea that the Russian invasion of the Ukraine is even a little bit related to some minor terrorist attack is beyond me.

[Admiral Yi]

I gotta say one of the great ancillary benefits of this crisis is that the death to Amerikkka/no war crowd are showing their true colors.

[Jacob]

Shelf: you can't be suggesting that the *only* reason European governments are resisting economic sanctions "with teeth" is venal self-interest.  Germany in particular: if they shut off the pipeline how do you expect them to keep their power plants running?

Not the only reason, no.

I think it's a big and growing one that goes beyond Russia to the ever-more supine position European politicians assume the nearer they get to Beijing or Doha.

A depressing thought.

[Neil]

I gotta say one of the great ancillary benefits of this crisis is that the death to Amerikkka/no war crowd are showing their true colors.

That's a good point.  I think I've been vindicated as not thinking of them as anti-war, but rather anti-West.

[Jacob]

I gotta say one of the great ancillary benefits of this crisis is that the death to Amerikkka/no war crowd are showing their true colors.

Comforting for you, disappointing for me

[Zanza]

It is true that some politicians do enter into rather shady dealings.  But is there any evidence that Merkle is actually in the "pocket" of energy interests or is she merely attempting to protect the interests of Germany writ large?  Absent evidence to the contrary the assumption should be the latter rather than the former.

Now whether you agree that he stance is actually in the interests of Germany in the long wrong is an interesting policy debate.  Reasonable people can disagree on that issue without having to resort to the conclusion that the only reason she made that decision is because she has been paid off.  If it turns out that she has then that would be a very serious matter.

What exactly has Merkel done in this crisis to be worth mentioning so often anyway? She seems to be her usual self, fairly passive, no rash decisions, calm diplomacy. I don't really get why Germany is considered to have some kind of pivotal role in all of this. People should have learned over the last decade or so that Germany doesn't fill that role in any foreign policy crisis...

That said, she is not the type to be bought off. I am sure she'll try to further Germany's economic interests, but I very much doubt that she has any interest in enriching herself. She is the opposite of bling-bling or bunga-bunga.

[Zanza]

From what I've read the German dependence on Russia as its major importer of gas is fairly new, there's other sources of natural gas and since Germany is one of the richest countries in the world it would of course be able to secure those other sources as it would win in a bidding war on a per/dekatherm level. I've also read that there is supposed to be some reserves that could last some number of months as well.

Here in the United States gas storage companies (take natural gas and pump it underground, typically into empty caverns that used to  be filled with gas before it was extracted) hold tons of gas and just sort of chill out with it and try to cash in when the price of gas goes up every winter. I'd be surprised if there wasn't a decent natural gas storage infrastructure in a country like Germany which uses natural gas in power plants and which has a significant chemical industry.

Yes, it is more of a short term problem to replace the Russian imports with something else.

Here are some more details on gas usage in Germany. Left is where the gas is from, right is what it is used for (industry 38%, households 32%, commercial 12%, electricity 13%, heating 5%).