Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Razgovory]

So is anyone going to do anything to stop the Russians?

Doubt it. Maybe the Ukrainians?

I think it mainly comes down to what Putin wants to do. It's his move and his sphere of influence. There'll be repercussions down the line, but they'll be in response to Putin's moves.

This is actually quite depressing.

[LaCroix]

agree with barrister. independent pro-russia crimea. i don't think that's a terribly bad outcome, actually. shit happens all the time

[DGuller]

Here's a question to ponder.  Let's assume that Obama is a particularly weak leader when it comes to foreign policy, which I think is not much of a stretch.  What would a president better at foreign policy do that Obama isn't doing? 

I'm drawing a bit of a blank here.  Huffing and puffing more strenuously isn't going to work if the enemy knows you're bluffing, and that you can't really project your power.  Unlike Russian presidents, American presidents are not dictators, and they can't just gear up the country for a potential war with a nuclear power if their populace is overwhelmingly skeptical.

[LaCroix]

Here's a question to ponder.  Let's assume that Obama is a particularly weak leader when it comes to foreign policy, which I think is not much of a stretch.  What would a president better at foreign policy do that Obama isn't doing? 

I'm drawing a bit of a blank here.  Huffing and puffing more strenuously isn't going to work if the enemy knows you're bluffing, and that you can't really project your power.  Unlike Russian presidents, American presidents are not dictators, and they can't just gear up the country for a potential war with a nuclear power if their populace is overwhelmingly skeptical.

people are going to be upset with obama because he's in office. few rational people would militarily intervene if they were in office, imo

[Grinning_Colossus]

More huffing, more puffing. Send a fleet to the Black Sea. Bomb the Roki Tunnel.

[Razgovory]

Here's a question to ponder.  Let's assume that Obama is a particularly weak leader when it comes to foreign policy, which I think is not much of a stretch.  What would a president better at foreign policy do that Obama isn't doing? 

I'm drawing a bit of a blank here.  Huffing and puffing more strenuously isn't going to work if the enemy knows you're bluffing, and that you can't really project your power.  Unlike Russian presidents, American presidents are not dictators, and they can't just gear up the country for a potential war with a nuclear power if their populace is overwhelmingly skeptical.

Arm western Ukraine?

[Queequeg]

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-11-airports-seized/#0135

Check out the 0015 entry.  They're rolling in self-propelled artillery which, unbeknownst to me, is almost exclusively used for offensive operations. 

[Ed Anger]

Silly live blog. arty can be used for counter battery fire.

[Queequeg]

Silly live blog. arty can be used for counter battery fire.

Yeah.  That's how I use it in CoH2. 

[Neil]

Here's a question to ponder.  Let's assume that Obama is a particularly weak leader when it comes to foreign policy, which I think is not much of a stretch.  What would a president better at foreign policy do that Obama isn't doing? 

I'm drawing a bit of a blank here.  Huffing and puffing more strenuously isn't going to work if the enemy knows you're bluffing, and that you can't really project your power.  Unlike Russian presidents, American presidents are not dictators, and they can't just gear up the country for a potential war with a nuclear power if their populace is overwhelmingly skeptical.

Advise the Russians that if they step out of line, they'll fasttrack Ukraine into NATO.

[Ed Anger]

http://theaviationist.com/2014/02/28/ukraine-mi-24-hinds/

[Sheilbh]

Yeah, the analysis I am hearing is that it isnt a bluff at all but that Putin's hand is forced by the fact he cant give any hope to others that might want greater autonomy within Russia.

According to, I think the Washington Post, the US intelligence assessment was that Putin's bluffing. Now I think it's more or less a fait accompli.

I think Fogh mentioned that the NATO door is still open to Ukraine, so that's something.

It's nothing. NATO is still primarily a defensive alliance. What's the point of having a country join if you wouldn't be willing to fight a war for them? Which is probably a question the Baltic states will be considering.

So Ukraine was dumb for giving up its huge nuke arsenal in exchange for the guarantee?  That won't play well with the opponents of nuclear proliferation.

First Libya, now Ukraine

What's really depressing news of a country whose sovereignty  the UK and the US guaranteed publicly pleading for something from those governments. The day before was PMQs and there wasn't a single question about Ukraine. Today after about a week of this slow motion and predictable chain of events Obama made a statement described by the BBC correspondent as a 'hastily called press statement'. 'Hastily called'?

We're some way away from Attlee on Korea, 'distant, yes - but nonetheless an obligation.'

The West is going to have to make a decision about this fairly quickly I would think

I think it's too late. Perhaps with some creative diplomacy a face-saving way out for Putin can be found, but it doesn't seem likely.

I still think the best option is a sort of pseudo-finlandisation. Ukraine remains pro-Russia on foreign policy, the Russians keep their fleet but Ukraine is allowed to integrate economically into Europe. And we use that non-NATO buffer around Russia as a model, integration but not a threat. Maybe even let Putin suggest it so he's rationally saving the day as in Syria.

On the other hand in the current circumstances you could say a policy of a buffer zone has failed and maybe we need one of sharp borders we're willing to defend.

Well what the hell do we do?

I think earlier on some public statements and actual positions by Western governments (especially the UK and the US) would have been nice. Could any of us have described the American (or British) position a few days ago?

Aside from that I think we've got a fair bit of leverage. The Russian reaction to the Magnitsky Act makes me think that may be the way to hurt them most. I'd suggest that a combination of no visas for many government (especially state security) figures and their families, freezing assets, opening money laundering investigations and going back to the G7 (world leaders not turning up at the Sochi Olympics is bad, not turning up at the Sochi G8 would be worse) would put pressure on Putin.

But Russia's done well in getting their policy on Syria, Iran and other areas (incidentally if there can be rapprochement with Iran, Russia's far less important in the world). I don't think it's because Putin's a great geo-political chess player. It seems to me because all too often the West is divided amongst itself and indifferent.

Now this is the other thing: if I were Putin, I would not stop at Crimea. He needs to steamroll Ukraine as a whole, or as big parts of it as possible because whatever remains outside of his control will become very pro-west very quickly.

Whatever happens I don't think this is the end for Putin. He'll target the rest of Southern and Eastern Ukraine, and Moldova at the very least.

Here's a question to ponder.  Let's assume that Obama is a particularly weak leader when it comes to foreign policy, which I think is not much of a stretch.  What would a president better at foreign policy do that Obama isn't doing? 

It's tough to say. I think at least they would have articulated a position and tried to build support and unity among Western leaders behind that position (GHW Bush would've hit the Rolodex ). Of recent American Presidents I think GHW Bush is probably the last who would've succeeded.

Or it speaks to just knowing you have no chance at winning.

All it would take is one hot headed local commander. That's not happening at all. For a country days out of a revolution that's impressive.

Silly live blog. arty can be used for counter battery fire.

I think Russia mainly uses artillery in lieu of taking cities though.

people are going to be upset with obama because he's in office. few rational people would militarily intervene if they were in office, imo

Quite and we should all be thankful that President McCain hasn't announced from the war room that we're all Ukrainians now.

I wonder where Seedy is.  He's normally bouncing off the walls when this kind of news comes in.

As the Arabists and counter-insurgency specialists fade gently into the bookshelf, the Kremlinologists return to their natural prominence

[Ed Anger]

CONDI! CONDI! CONDI!

[PDH]

It's time for the USA to go full isolationist again.

[Ed Anger]

Also Boeing execs must be dropping a load in their pants, considering their shiny Ural Boeing plant in Russia.