Ukraine's European Revolution?

[DGuller]

I haven't read much of the thread but I'm assuming that Putin and his minions would really want Ukraine back into the Russian nation, also making it a lot easier to regain some of the other nations that left. Does it seem that Putin and his minions are pushing, surreptitiously or even overtly, to get Ukraine back into Russia? Or other republics? At least slowly starting that process in Ukraine even though it may not seem like it right now? If so or if people think that's the case then that's more reason for the protests to intensify.

I also wonder if maybe Ukraine would split into two nations, one a satellite of Russia and the other independent.

I don't think Putin it looking to physically extend Russia's borders.  They know how difficult that is to do since WWII.

Putin's MO however is to create weak client states where Russia can act with impunity.

It's difficult to expand the borders by an outright invasion and annexation.  Crumbling the neighbors' central governments, and then peacefully annexing the crumbs that are shaken off, on the other hand, is still OK, and that's what Putin is going for.  The rise of Putin's Russia may mirror the rise of Hitler's Germany, but Putin is a lot smarter than Hitler.  He knows exactly what he can get away with, and takes exactly that.

[derspiess]

Doesn't it seem like for all involved the best outcome (among all that are plausible at this point) is for the country to split in two? 

[DGuller]

Doesn't it seem like for all involved the best outcome (among all that are plausible at this point) is for the country to split in two?

That's definitely what Russians want you to think.  Yeah, it's the west that can't live with the east, it has nothing to do with the fact that the country's president made a play to be a dictator and Russia's satellite.

[alfred russel]

The problem with annexing Ukraine is that I doubt the western Ukraine would be possible without some serious authoritarianism from Moscow--see the leveling of Grozny for example.

A partial annexation of the east might be possible, but would Russia want that? That would leave a west looking Western Ukraine, and possibly bringing the EU (and Nato?) right to Russia's border in a big way (I know there are borders now).

A weak client state keeping its current borders may be the preferred outcome for Russia.

[Tamas]

Annexation? There was an Ukraine even during the Soviet Union, wasn't there?

There are already plans for a Russian-led Eurasian Union. Ukraine will be a member.

And Hungary too, eventually, if you ask me.

[Maximus]

it has nothing to do with the fact that the country's president made a play to be a dictator and Russia's satellite.

Does the eastern part of the country see this as a problem though? Honest question. The way it is portrayed in the media they don't.

[DGuller]

The problem with annexing Ukraine is that I doubt the western Ukraine would be possible without some serious authoritarianism from Moscow--see the leveling of Grozny for example.

A partial annexation of the east might be possible, but would Russia want that? That would leave a west looking Western Ukraine, and possibly bringing the EU (and Nato?) right to Russia's border in a big way (I know there are borders now).

A weak client state keeping its current borders may be the preferred outcome for Russia.

The problem with the last option is that the weak client state will still have Lviv to contend with.  It took even Stalin years to subjugate the area.  A city like Lviv is exactly what you don't want to own if your country's government is teetering on the edge of losing legitimacy.

[DGuller]

it has nothing to do with the fact that the country's president made a play to be a dictator and Russia's satellite.

Does the eastern part of the country see this as a problem though? Honest question. The way it is portrayed in the media they don't.

I don't think the east is as solidly in the Yanukovich camp as it is portrayed.

[crazy canuck]

Here is an interesting article from National Geographic suggesting the political, linguistic and cultural differences between the Eastern and Western Ukraine have a long history.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/140129-protests-ukraine-russia-geography-history/

[derspiess]

That's definitely what Russians want you to think.  Yeah, it's the west that can't live with the east, it has nothing to do with the fact that the country's president made a play to be a dictator and Russia's satellite.

I'm actually very pro-western Ukraine in this.  It just doesn't seem like either side is particularly fond of the other.  Nor that the western part would ever accept annexation from Russia (or even being a satellite) without some bloody confrontation (or more of it, I guess).  And from a NATO/EU perspective though I'd greatly welcome a pro-western Ukraine into the family I'd not be comfortable with a Ukraine that is likely overrun with FSB agents and with roughly half the population hating the West's guts.

So why not literally split the difference?  Have the East split away as East Ukraine and either become a Russian satellite or part of the Russian Federation-- that's what most people there seem to want, isn't it?  And then keep the western part named Ukraine, free to throw in its lot with the West if it so chooses.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think the east is as solidly in the Yanukovich camp as it is portrayed.

Meh, you also said hockey didnt much matter to Russians.  You lost of a lot of cred there.

[DGuller]

Have the East split away as East Ukraine and either become a Russian satellite or part of the Russian Federation-- that's what most people there seem to want, isn't it?

I think that's a mighty strong assumption.

[DGuller]

I don't think the east is as solidly in the Yanukovich camp as it is portrayed.

Meh, you also said hockey didnt much matter to Russians.  You lost of a lot of cred there.

I said it wouldn't make or break their Olympics.

[crazy canuck]

I don't think the east is as solidly in the Yanukovich camp as it is portrayed.

Meh, you also said hockey didnt much matter to Russians.  You lost of a lot of cred there.

I said it wouldn't make or break their Olympics.

Yeah, like I said, you lost a lot of cred with that one.

[Syt]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/uk-ukraine-idUKBREA1H0EM20140219

In staunchly pro-European western Ukraine, opponents of Yanukovich declared political autonomy after seizing regional administrative buildings in Lviv overnight and forcing police to surrender.