Ukraine's European Revolution?

[jimmy olsen]

I am more skeptical that the new found commitment to peace by the government is just a tactic to buy time to put more loyal troops into the West.

I dunno - Yanukovych has shown a willingness to negotiate, on multiple occasions.

It's just that he appears unwilling to make any concessions that would limit his own power as president.

If he's not willing to make concessions than I don't think it's fair to say that he's shown a willingness to negotiate.

[Razgovory]

A couple of Berkut guys were screaming in Russian at the film crews, and telling to get to get the fuck out, but generally, it did seem a little surreal.  Unless those Berkut guys went over on the other side, which is highly unlikely, the two sides did seem to at least cease fire after the bloodbath and work together on evacuating the wounded.

So they are like our Berkut?

[DGuller]

A couple of Berkut guys were screaming in Russian at the film crews, and telling to get to get the fuck out, but generally, it did seem a little surreal.  Unless those Berkut guys went over on the other side, which is highly unlikely, the two sides did seem to at least cease fire after the bloodbath and work together on evacuating the wounded.

So they are like our Berkut?

Let's not go overboard.  They may be ruthless and sadistic fucks, especially when the cameras are not rolling, but let's keep some perspective here.

[Admiral Yi]

They probably type a lot better.

[Razgovory]

They probably type a lot better.

Berkut may make some mistakes but even he's never managed to get the letter "R" backwards.

[Berkut]

I don't like you people anymore.

[Jacob]

I don't like you people anymore.

... that means... that you liked us at some point in time! 

[alfred russel]

Why do you think that?

Take DGuller's Egyptian scenario. There are two big differences between Mubarak and the Ukrainian dude Yanukovych. Yanukovych is democratically elected, and there is a major power next door backing him up.

From what I understand (and I'm not an authority on the Ukraine), there is a sizable part of the population that supports Yanukovych and prefers closer relations with Russia vs. the EU. If Yanukovych caves, he loses his base of support. I don't see the military turning him out and siding with the protesters, because of the implications to democracy (plus if some general wants to set himself up as a new national leader, his natural ally is not the EU but Russia). There is also almost no chance of the protest side winning in a theoretical civil war (both because of Russia, and because of who is starting with control of the military).

Elections are next year. The opposition has registered its point of view and the world has taken notice. The smart thing is to do whatever it takes to keep things from escalating and try to win next year.

[Ed Anger]

Burn the Black Sea Fleet in harbor.

[DGuller]

Why do you think that?

Take DGuller's Egyptian scenario. There are two big differences between Mubarak and the Ukrainian dude Yanukovych. Yanukovych is democratically elected, and there is a major power next door backing him up.

From what I understand (and I'm not an authority on the Ukraine), there is a sizable part of the population that supports Yanukovych and prefers closer relations with Russia vs. the EU. If Yanukovych caves, he loses his base of support. I don't see the military turning him out and siding with the protesters, because of the implications to democracy (plus if some general wants to set himself up as a new national leader, his natural ally is not the EU but Russia). There is also almost no chance of the protest side winning in a theoretical civil war (both because of Russia, and because of who is starting with control of the military).

Elections are next year. The opposition has registered its point of view and the world has taken notice. The smart thing is to do whatever it takes to keep things from escalating and try to win next year.

To be serious, there is no chance of a military taking power.  However, what can happen is that the push comes to shove, and they get called upon.  If they balk, Yanokovich is done, as he has effectively no power.  The Russian putsch in 1991 was pretty much done when the military divisions in Moscow refused to follow orders, and no general took charge after that.

[CountDeMoney]

What Would Makhno Do?

[alfred russel]

To be serious, there is no chance of a military taking power.  However, what can happen is that the push comes to shove, and they get called upon.  If they balk, Yanokovich is done, as he has effectively no power.  The Russian putsch in 1991 was pretty much done when the military divisions in Moscow refused to follow orders, and no general took charge after that.

I don't see a logical choice to take power. If not someone in the military in a caretaker role, then someone in the opposition that is from the broad group that lost the last election?

1991 in Russia was different--there wasn't a democracy.

[DGuller]

To be serious, there is no chance of a military taking power.  However, what can happen is that the push comes to shove, and they get called upon.  If they balk, Yanokovich is done, as he has effectively no power.  The Russian putsch in 1991 was pretty much done when the military divisions in Moscow refused to follow orders, and no general took charge after that.

I don't see a logical choice to take power. If not someone in the military in a caretaker role, then someone in the opposition that is from the broad group that lost the last election?

1991 in Russia was different--there wasn't a democracy.

There will definitely be no democracy in Ukraine if the army gets called upon, and even now there is only a tenuous pretext of it.

[CountDeMoney]

You two muttskis are talking too far down the road, talking about civil war bullshit.  That's not what this is about.

[alfred russel]

There will definitely be no democracy in Ukraine if the army gets called upon, and even now there is only a tenuous pretext of it.

In that case, the protestors lose the moment the military is called on. You aren't going to integrate into Europe when you don't have democracy.