Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Queequeg]

Chechnya


Crimea

[Ed Anger]

Yay, two shitholes.

[Syt]

My history teacher in the late 80s used to say that the Russians are paranoid about the Western part of Europe invading - Napoleon, Crimean War, WW1, the Russian Civil War with foreign interventions, WW2 ... he said that they're intent on creating buffers - Russia surrounded by the other Soviet republics, then another zone of Warsaw Pact countries; basically, their aim is to make the march of any potential enemy to Moscow as long and painful as possible.

[Syt]

So, any guesses as to what happens next? Will Putin push for immediate integration? Or will he slow things down to try and cushion Western response? Or will he say, "Screw Western response", accelerate the altercations in the East and South of Ukraine and come to "rescue" the rest of the Russians living there? It would make it easier, I guess, to supply those 2000 troops in Moldova.

[Monoriu]

My history teacher in the late 80s used to say that the Russians are paranoid about the Western part of Europe invading - Napoleon, Crimean War, WW1, the Russian Civil War with foreign interventions, WW2 ... he said that they're intent on creating buffers - Russia surrounded by the other Soviet republics, then another zone of Warsaw Pact countries; basically, their aim is to make the march of any potential enemy to Moscow as long and painful as possible.

Sounds like an excuse for land grab to me.  They are armed with nuclear weapons.  That itself is sufficient to make any march to Moscow kinda dangerous. 

And the Mongols came from the East

[Richard Hakluyt]

Zombie Enver Hoxha sneers in contempt at the referendum result and says "thërrasë se një mandat?" 

[Archy]

Now I'm eagerly awaiting the referendum for seperation of Chechnya from the Russian Federeation 

[Syt]

It seems that the Russians are saying that they're open to talks about any topic regarding Ukraine - except the Crimean referendum. The Russian foreign ministry is opening a support group for Ukraine, open to all political groups.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian parliament has green-lit the mobilization of 40,000 reservists.

[Josquius]

On the one hand Russia didn't let the Georgian break aways just join them and Crimea would be much more sudden and much bigger a deal.
On the other hand Crimea is much bigger a deal and Russians are not known for following standard logic...

[Viking]

Sounds like an excuse for land grab to me.  They are armed with nuclear weapons.  That itself is sufficient to make any march to Moscow kinda dangerous. 

And the Mongols came from the East

Yes, and with Russian influence in the 'stans the march on moscow from the east is very very long.

[Viking]

So, any guesses as to what happens next? Will Putin push for immediate integration? Or will he slow things down to try and cushion Western response? Or will he say, "Screw Western response", accelerate the altercations in the East and South of Ukraine and come to "rescue" the rest of the Russians living there? It would make it easier, I guess, to supply those 2000 troops in Moldova.

I think he has made the same evaluation of western resolve as Hitler did after Munich. We are weak, inconstant, won't support our allies and when presented with a fait accompli we back down.

What both of them didn't understand is that we operate on multiple modes, countries are either rational and friendly in which case we will bend over backwards to accommodate them, or they are irrational and hostile in which case we will screw them over as much as possible. The only two ways of getting out of the latter group is either generations of good behavior or a pro-western revolution.

Telling people like Assad that he is a reformer and Abbas that he is a partner for peace and Putin that his eyes made him look trustworthy is about telling the western public and the dictator that we haven't given up on them yet. They should take it as a signal that it is no longer taken for granted that they are. No third world dictator didn't get praised for his reform agenda while western diplomats were insisting that he have a reform agenda that actually progressed.

[Liep]

What's up with the far right-wing enthusiasm for Russia? The observers they found were right-wing nutters, and now the Danish People's Party want to recognize the election, because as they say: "96% is everybody, we have to acknowledge that. I saw no signs of foul play during the election".

[Syt]

I guess the right-wingers respect a strong leader who promotes the greatness of the fatherland?


What worries me about Russia vs. USSR is the change in ideology. The USSR was - on paper - promoting an egalitarian society to the benefit of all people. They would mostly act paranoid, but on the whole rationally and calm headed.

Putin's Russia has a much stronger nationalist bend, with a resurgent Orthodox Church, and he styles himself as the protector of the true, traditional values and protector of Slavs and Orthodoxy. He appeals to the people emotionally, which, IMO, makes things on the whole more volatile.

[Tonitrus]

Indeed, it's more like Czarist Russia, but without the Czar.

And that will ultimately create a succession problem.

[Iormlund]

Syt it does make sense that Putin is going for the emotional response, because from any other point of view his Ucranian adventure could end in catastrophe. By excising Crimea from Ukraine he might damage Russian influence there forever. Not to mention the risks of Western sanctions or renewed impetus for fracking and other forms of energy independence.