When Yasser met polonium-210: Whodunit?

[Grinning_Colossus]

Arafat polonium findings confirmed by Swiss scientists
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24851883

Swiss scientists have confirmed that tests show the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat had high levels of radioactive polonium in his body.

However, they could not say whether polonium poisoning had caused his death in 2004.

Their report concluded that Arafat's remains showed levels of polonium 18 times higher than normal.

Arafat's widow, Suha, has reaffirmed to the BBC her belief that their report proves he was assassinated.

But she said she could not directly accuse anyone, saying that he had many enemies around the world.

Many Palestinians have long believed that Israel poisoned Arafat. There have also been allegations that he had Aids or cancer. Israel has consistently denied any involvement.

'Documented for history'
The scientists - from the Vaudois University Hospital Centre (CHUV) in Lausanne, Switzerland - had carried out a detailed examination of Arafat's medical records, samples taken from his remains and items he had taken into the hospital in Paris where he died in 2004.

The biological materials included pieces of Mr Arafat's bones and soil samples from around his corpse.

Professor Francois Bochud told a news conference on Thursday that the high level of polonium detected "by definition... indicates third party involvement... Our results offer moderate backing for the theory of poisoning."

But he went on to say: "Was polonium the cause of the death for certain? The answer is no, we cannot show categorically that hypothesis that the poisoning caused was this or that."

In their report, the scientists had stressed that they had been unable to reach a more definitive conclusion because of the time that had lapsed since Arafat's death, the limited samples available and the confused "chain of custody" of some of the specimens.

Polonium-210 is a highly radioactive substance. It is found naturally in low doses in food and in the body, but can be fatal if ingested in high doses.

Arafat, who led the Palestine Liberation Organisation for 35 years and became the first president of the Palestinian Authority in 1996, fell violently ill in October 2004 at his compound in the West Bank.

Two weeks later he was flown to a French military hospital in Paris, where he died on 11 November 2004, aged 75.

His official medical records say he died from a stroke resulting from a blood disorder.

France began a murder inquiry in August 2012 after the preliminary findings of polonium by the Lausanne scientists, who have been working with an al-Jazeera documentary crew.

Parallel investigations are being carried out by French and Russian experts - one Russian official said last month that no traces of polonium had been found.

Suha Arafat, who had objected to a post-mortem at the time of his death, agreed for his body to be exhumed a year ago "to reveal the truth".

Welcoming the Swiss report, Mrs Arafat said she had no doubt that her husband had been assassinated but refused to point the finger at Israel.

"I can't accuse anybody. Everybody wants to accuse Israel - I can't accuse - I can't jump into conclusion," she told the BBC.

"Now the case is in the French jurisdiction, I wanted to document this crime - this crime I want it documented for history, actually."

If the Israelis had wanted to kill him I can only imagine that they would have had less-stupid options than polonium. On the other hand, how would anyone in the PLO (acting independently, at least) have gotten their hands on the stuff? It's also curious that the Russian lab didn't find anything... 

[Caliga]

I can't see any reason why either Israel or the US would have wanted to bump Arafat off.

[Agelastus]

If the Israelis had wanted to kill him I can only imagine that they would have had less-stupid options than polonium. On the other hand, how would anyone in the PLO (acting independently, at least) have gotten their hands on the stuff? It's also curious that the Russian lab didn't find anything... 

No Hamas option?

If it was Polonium, favoured assassination tool of Russia, then the chain Russia-Syria-Hamas can't be unthinkable, surely? Or possibly Russia-Syria-PSGTYP*, anyway.

*PSGTYP = "Palestinian Splinter Group Take Your Pick".

[Barrister]

WHat about the Minsky hypothesis?  I tried to find a post of his when this was earlier reported - it went something like this:

Arafat lead a very... interesting life.  He lived in various refugee camps, in armed camps, in a variety of middle-eastern organizations.  His PLO was also closely associated with terrorist activities back in the day.  In short he had any number of possible exposures to dangerous substances and elements.

[The Brain]

WHat about the Minsky hypothesis?  I tried to find a post of his when this was earlier reported - it went something like this:

Arafat lead a very... interesting life.  He lived in various refugee camps, in armed camps, in a variety of middle-eastern organizations.  His PLO was also closely associated with terrorist activities back in the day.  In short he had any number of possible exposures to dangerous substances and elements.

But how much time did he spend in Poland?

[Viking]

Suha Arafat, with Munchausen by Proxy, in the bleak public irrelevance that is her Paris Penthouse.

[Razgovory]

I believe you can amass a certain amount of Polonium in the body if you simply smoke a lot of cigarettes.  http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/opinion/01proctor.html?_r=0

[The Brain]

Why would anyone sane smoke a lot of cigarettes?

[Sheilbh]

I thought this was interesting from Jeffrey Goldberg:

Who Might Have Poisoned Yasser Arafat?
By Jeffrey Goldberg Nov 6, 2013 10:24 PM GMT

Word comes now that an examination of the remains of Yasser Arafat, the Palestinian leader who died in 2004, has found "unexpected high activity" of polonium. According to Arafat's official medical records, he suffered a fatal stroke, but this level of radioactive polonium -- 18 times the normal level -- has prompted scientists to say they "moderately" support the notion, advanced by Arafat's widow and others, that he was poisoned to death.

Although Arafat had many enemies in the Palestinian camp (and was notably unpopular with many Arab leaders), speculation about a culprit has naturally centered on Israel. The spokesman for the Israeli foreign ministry, Yigal Palmor, disparaged the claim today, saying that it is "more soap opera than science." He cast doubt on the neutrality of the examining scientists, and also raised a legitimate question about whether they had access to all of Arafat's medical records. In Buzzfeed, Sheera Frenkel reports that Israel is bracing for a wave of criticism. She quotes Ran Cohen, a left-wing politician, saying that, "most Palestinians believe that we were behind his death, now their anger will be renewed."

Israeli anxiety about such accusations, arising at a sensitive time in the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, is understandable, but the Israeli government should remember that it was the official policy of several past Israeli leaders to try to kill Arafat, who was the head of a terrorist organization that had murdered many Israeli civilians. I had several conversations on the subject of assassinating Arafat with his principal Israeli nemesis, Ariel Sharon, and today's report sent me back to a profile I wrote of Sharon that appeared 12 years ago in the New Yorker. The profile was published just as Sharon was running, successfully, for prime minister. Here's what I wrote directly on the subject of assassination:

Sharon was blunt on the subject of Arafat. "He's a murderer and a liar," he said. "He's an enemy. He's a bitter enemy." Sharon has devoted a great deal of time and energy to Arafat. By Arafat's own count, Sharon has tried to have him killed thirteen times. Sharon wouldn't fix on a number, but he said the opportunity had arisen repeatedly. "All the governments of Israel for many years, Labor, Likud, all of them, made an effort -- and I want to use a subtle word for the American reader -- to remove him from our society. We never succeeded."

In other conversations with me in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Sharon, who has been in a stroke-induced coma for more than seven years, did not resort to euphemism. Once, he described to me how Israel would have been better off had Arafat been killed by the Israeli army in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon, an invasion that Sharon led. It was, he said, "a missed opportunity."

I'm still trying to figure out exactly why Sharon -- who was, of course, prime minister when Arafat died -- would have wanted the Palestinian leader dead at the particular moment he died. (There are all kinds of reasonable theories, which I hope to visit later). But it should not be treated as news that Sharon wanted Arafat dead, or that he tried, at different points, to kill him. Maybe this whole autopsy drama is a farce, and maybe Arafat did, in fact, die of natural causes. Maybe he was killed by someone else. Or maybe Sharon, who lamented to me his failure to kill Arafat, actually wound up succeeding.

I look forward to the reasonable theories why.

I've no idea and from a cui bono perspective it's difficult to see why Israel would want him dead at that point. Having said that I can't think of many worse enemies to make than Ariel Sharon

[DGuller]

Maybe I'm missing some subtlety of international politics, but if Israel wanted Arafat dead so badly that it wasn't even hiding it, why couldn't Arafat be executed during one of the many incursions into West Bank?  It's not like his location was a secret, nor was his compound impregnable.

[Viking]

Why would anyone sane smoke a lot of cigarettes?

Why would anyone sane become a Palestinian terrorist?

[Admiral Yi]

The groupies.  Duh.

[Razgovory]

Why would anyone sane smoke a lot of cigarettes?

Why would anyone sane become a Palestinian terrorist?

They get really good basements.  Tunnels and everything.

I object to the title of this thread, I don't think there is a "whodunit" to be had hare.  Even the team claim of "moderate evidence of poisoning" is extremely underwhelming.  Add that to the other team didn't find evidence of poisoning.

[The Brain]

Why would anyone sane smoke a lot of cigarettes?

Why would anyone sane become a Palestinian terrorist?

Too ugly for Hollywood.

[Fate]

They're still keeping Sharon alive? I always thought he died in 2006. Jesus christ. That's some fucked up shit.