Massive use of chemical weapons in Syria, 1,429 killed including 426 children

[Eddie Teach]

Then the question is which of those threats had they been called on.

[Razgovory]

Then the question is which of those threats had they been called on.

Well the '58 one obviously.  Khrushchev backed down on that one, though he made several other threats along the same lines.

[Kleves]

Credibility is the worst, most anemic argument for doing anything. The US and Obama don't lack credibility, nor would they if they didn't act (except domestically) and it wouldn't matter anyway.

The argument for intervening is that there's punishment for use of chemical weapons. Don't do it again or we'll fuck you up again and maybe more.

I don't disagree that credibility is not a very strong argument for taking an action that could have such large downsides. I don't know that going to war because Assad is not using our preferred weapons system to slaughter his own people is a much better argument.

[Admiral Yi]

OK Shelf, maybe the Soviets bluffed and were called.  I don't know enough of the particulars to contest.

But you're assuming an all or nothing variable.  I.e. if a country bluffs and gets called once, then the future value of their threats drops to zero.  That is not the critique of bluffing.  Rather that bluffs tend to cause antagonists to discount the value of a threat.   In situations when you want to communicate "you really better not use chemical weapons or we will blow up you and your shit with 100% certainty," bluffs cause that threat to devalue to a lower probability.

[CountDeMoney]

I think Obama should consult congress, but he doesn't have to.

He will, and he'll do it just like every other President has since Ford:  he'll make phone calls to Hill leadership while the missiles are in the air.

[PJL]

Looks like we won't be taking any military action against Syria any time soon. Both Labour amendment and the original government motion has been defeated. Sounds like this is blow back re Blair's dodgy dossier.

[MadImmortalMan]

DC said he's going to go along with the vote.

[jimmy olsen]

Seems odd that the Brits were so gungho about Libya and so recalcitrant about Syria. The attack on the Benghazi consulate aside, Libya has turned out relatively well. 

[Razgovory]

Seems odd that the Brits were so gungho about Libya and so recalcitrant about Syria. The attack on the Benghazi consulate aside, Libya has turned out relatively well.

Well, Gaddafyi killed a bunch of British citizens, Assad on the other hand lived in Britain and married a British chick.

[mongers]

Seems odd that the Brits were so gungho about Libya and so recalcitrant about Syria. The attack on the Benghazi consulate aside, Libya has turned out relatively well.

MPs and their constituents realised there's a difference of scale and difficulty between Libya and Syria. 

[Phillip V]

Obama Willing to Pursue Solo Syria Strikes

'President Obama is ready to pursue a military strike even with a rejection of such action by Britain's Parliament and without an endorsement from the United Nations Security Council.'

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/us/politics/obama-syria.html

[jimmy olsen]

Ed not have to see that doctor after all

might http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/us/politics/obama-syria.html?_r=0

EDIT: Damn you Phil! :shakesfist:

[Ed Anger]

Too Late. I'm in College football mode. BRUTUS IS INFLATED.

[Sheilbh]

Amazing scenes apparently. Michael Gove, Education Secretary, seen in the lobby shouting 'you are a disgrace!' at Tory rebels. His wife (a journalist) tweeted: 'I am SO angry about today's vote. No military action would have come out of it. It was simply about sending a signal. Cowardice.' and 'Pathetic losers who can't see past their own interests.'

From the Press Association:
'Seconds before the result was read out by Speaker John Bercow there was a roar from the opposition benches.

Some MPs loudly shouted "resign" and "go now" at the Government benches after the vote result was read.

Bercow rapped one of the ringleaders, the SNP's Angus MacNeil, saying: "Mr MacNeil, you are like an exploded volcano, erupted, calm yourself man."

Cameron showed little emotion and kept his gaze fixed on the Speaker.

Miliband was then loudly cheered as he took to the Despatch Box.'

This was a bigger government rebellion than the vote that brought down Chamberlain and certainly the first time a government's lost its motion on any non-European foreign policy motion. Given the Labour vote, Cameron was defeated by the Tories. It seems like it should be considered a confidence motion, though I don't think it necessarily is.

Constitutionally this is also huge, I think Parliament's now asserted its role over the executive on war powers. Difficult to see a return to royal prerogative powers. Which constitutionally is a big event

We may also see the US and France acting together without Britain. Unbelievable, as commentators have pointed out, that this breach with America came under a Tory friendly with the White House. Right now our foreign policy is insular, obsessed with Europe and kind-of isolationist - we're like the black swan of Germany

Seems odd that the Brits were so gungho about Libya and so recalcitrant about Syria. The attack on the Benghazi consulate aside, Libya has turned out relatively well.

The Commons only voted on Libya the day after action had started. The executive acted and Parliament ratified, it may have been beaten had Cameron asked Parliament for permission first.

But also the congruence of a country in the heart of the Middle East, with a Baathist tyrant and WMD meant that this was really about lots of Commons voting against Iraq in retrospect.

Edit: Cameron's response when Miliband asked him not to use prerogative powers:

I can give that assurance. Let me say, the House has not voted for either motion tonight. I strongly believe in the need for a tough response to the use of chemical weapons, but I also believe in respecting the will of this House of Commons. It is very clear tonight that, while the House has not passed a motion, it is clear to me that the British parliament, reflecting the views of the British people, does not want to see British military action. I get that and the government will act accordingly.

Three ministers missed the vote. Ken Clarke for 'logistical reasons', Justine Greening and Mark Simmonds because they didn't hear the division bell. Not that it would've made a difference.

[Ed Anger]

Justine Greening and Mark Simmonds because they didn't hear the division bell

A mediocre album.