2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Tonitrus]

That's not the same thing.

Brokered convention very likely means neither of them.

I see people saying that but I can't imagine the establishment doing that without the base going total bonkers.

I mean, I just checked and there are apparently Senate and Congress elections this autumn as well. If the brokered convention steals the nomination from both Trump and Cruz, wouldn't their supporters be pissed off enough to elect some New Tea Party types and send the establishment candidates packing?

Just like with the Presidential candidates, the GOP candidates for the House/Senate will have already been decided.

The worst that happens is a huge amount of Trump/Cruz supporters and independents stay home on election day.

If not for Sanders, Hillary and the Dems would be laughing it up big right now.

[Martinus]

Will the primaries for these candidates happen before July 2016?

[Tonitrus]

Will the primaries for these candidates happen before July 2016?

Some might, it varies by state.

And even if the primary itself doesn't...the filing deadline might be past.

[Fireblade]

Will the primaries for these candidates happen before July 2016?

Some might, it varies by state.

And even if the primary itself doesn't...the filing deadline might be past.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if you could file at this point in any state. Maybe California is still possible, but you need a shit ton of money to run there anyway so it's a moot point.

[FunkMonk]

I find it funny that people are acting as if Cruz has won the nomination.

Who is doing that?

Funkmonk has called this the end of Trump and derspiess did too (but he later claimed he was being sarcastic).

To be fair the star wars quote was tongue-in-cheek, but it does indicate my belief to a point: I don't think Trump will be the nominee and I definitely don't see him winning in November if he is.  Ultimately, he's his own worst enemy.

[FunkMonk]

This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of Trump and will soon see the end of the Sanders rebellion.

Careful...remember how that movie reference turned out. 

America has switched off its targeting computer.

[Legbiter]

This will be a day long remembered. It has seen the end of Trump and will soon see the end of the Sanders rebellion.

Careful...remember how that movie reference turned out. 

America has switched off its targeting computer.

 

Strong everything.

[Eddie Teach]

I see people saying that but I can't imagine the establishment doing that without the base going total bonkers.

As long as they don't nominate a moderate, Cruz voters will be placated. Especially considering many of them at this point are simply anti-Trump.

Trump voters may be a different story, but then many of them are people who usually aren't politically active. If they don't turn out... the Republicans lose, but things look to be heading that way anyway.

[alfred russel]

I find it funny that people are acting as if Cruz has won the nomination. The end game is still the same - either Trump wins outright or a brokered convention, with Trump having the plurality of delegates.

Martinus, I don't think you understand how this works.

The delegates are people. Some are picked by the candidates, but many are picked by some version of the party or people that show up to obscure party meetings. Cruz is by all reports organizing to take over these meetings, but he seems to be the only candidate doing so. Some other delegates are automatic based on their position in the party.

Most delegates are obligated to vote for the candidate based on their state rules. So for instance, in Arizona, all the 55 delegates are Trump delegates because he won the state, and on the first ballot they are all obligated to vote for him. But there are news stories that Cruz supporters took over the actual delegate selection process, and of the actual 55 people that make up the delegates, ~50 actually favor Cruz. Arizona is not unique in this.

So on the first ballot, everyone votes as they are pledged and Trump wins a plurality but not a majority. So we go to a second ballot. I don't know when the Arizona delegates cease to be bound to abide by their state's vote--it varies from state to state--but once they are, it is almost certain almost all of Trump's Arizona support will evaporate.

This is why Trump's nomination odds are plummeting (and why I never thought he had a great shot at the nomination to begin with). He is in strong position to get a first ballot plurality, but if he doesn't get a majority, he is in an incredibly weak position as many of "his delegates" are poised to desert him.

[Savonarola]

Your predictions for Wisconsin on Tuesday?

Cruz, The Bern.  I'm not incredibly confident in either prediction, but both Trump and Hil had rough weeks last week and they may need some time to recover.

Now it looks like the Bern is having a rough week with the New York Daily News interview.  Fortunately for him the only caucus this week is Wyoming; he has some time to recover before New York.  Unfortunately for him the next several primaries are closed; he did much better among independents than Democrats in Wisconsin.

[Savonarola]

Actual news story:

Justin Timberlake takes a swipe at Donald Trump

If the rest of the Mickey Mouse Club comes out against him I'm afraid the Donald cannot win.   

[Barrister]

I find it funny that people are acting as if Cruz has won the nomination. The end game is still the same - either Trump wins outright or a brokered convention, with Trump having the plurality of delegates.

Martinus, I don't think you understand how this works.

The delegates are people. Some are picked by the candidates, but many are picked by some version of the party or people that show up to obscure party meetings. Cruz is by all reports organizing to take over these meetings, but he seems to be the only candidate doing so. Some other delegates are automatic based on their position in the party.

Most delegates are obligated to vote for the candidate based on their state rules. So for instance, in Arizona, all the 55 delegates are Trump delegates because he won the state, and on the first ballot they are all obligated to vote for him. But there are news stories that Cruz supporters took over the actual delegate selection process, and of the actual 55 people that make up the delegates, ~50 actually favor Cruz. Arizona is not unique in this.

So on the first ballot, everyone votes as they are pledged and Trump wins a plurality but not a majority. So we go to a second ballot. I don't know when the Arizona delegates cease to be bound to abide by their state's vote--it varies from state to state--but once they are, it is almost certain almost all of Trump's Arizona support will evaporate.

This is why Trump's nomination odds are plummeting (and why I never thought he had a great shot at the nomination to begin with). He is in strong position to get a first ballot plurality, but if he doesn't get a majority, he is in an incredibly weak position as many of "his delegates" are poised to desert him.

So here's a scenario: Donald Trump comes close, but not actually at, 1237.  Lets say he has 1180 or so.  Rubio and Kasich have about 300 between them, so Cruz is somewhere around 1000.  On a first ballot no one reaches a majority.

Now it would be one thing if, on the second ballot, Kasich and Rubio's delegates come over and vote for Cruz.  That's how these things are supposed to work.

But if, on a second ballot, Trump not only loses, but gets substantially fewer votes than the delegates he came in with?  That just sounds profoundly undemocratic, and Trump may be onto something when he talks about riots.


You know I've warmed (slightly) to Ted Cruz in that his campaign is looking at all the little details.  He seems to have strong voter ID and GOTV efforts.  I've been a campaign manager twice before and I've always believed that the ground game is important in doing politics right.  But there is such a thing as being too clever, and if Cruz manages to win solely because Trump delegates are voting for him I think the GOP could be in real trouble.

[Solmyr]

Why do you even have this months-long primaries crap if none of it will even matter in the end?

In other news, Hillary is spewing stupid crap. Come on America, I'm running out of candidates to root for here, since all the potential GOP ones are crazy. Do I really have to root for Bernie?

[PJL]

Can Trump still run as a Republican candidate if he just wins a plurality of the vote on the first round? Even if Cruz takes the nomination after the second round (in effect on a AV/IRV system at the convention), could Trump raise a legal challenge against it and run as another Republican candidate alongside Cruz? That would be a good argument against the sore loser rules some states have with regards to having him on the ballot.

[alfred russel]

But if, on a second ballot, Trump not only loses, but gets substantially fewer votes than the delegates he came in with?  That just sounds profoundly undemocratic, and Trump may be onto something when he talks about riots.

But that is the nature of the beast. For a solid majority of delegates, their selection is disjointed from the primary / caucus voting.

A portion of the delegates are automatically given to RNC members based on their position. Many others are determined by rules, such as a minimum qualification is participating in previous conventions, and often the state parties have picked delegates as rewards for their service to the party.

These are people that are not going to personally support Trump even if they are mandated to vote for him on the first ballot. And they probably wouldn't support Cruz either--except that right now Cruz is the only organized force working in the party right now and can influence the delegate selection process.

Cruz's only chance is in a contested convention. If he ignored the delegate selection process, he wouldn't have much chance in a contested convention either. It would go to Rubio, Kasich, Romney, Ryan, or someone similar, but not Cruz or Trump.