Russia in Trouble this Year?

[Razgovory]

Yeah, and what were the other countries with  the ability to project power across the world?  You have maybe three who can reliably do it.  The US, the UK, and France.  Even a crippled man stands tall amongst a world of dwarfs.

A crippled man isn't a 'preeminent power'.

He is when nobody else has legs!

[Neil]

Yeah, and what were the other countries with  the ability to project power across the world?  You have maybe three who can reliably do it.  The US, the UK, and France.  Even a crippled man stands tall amongst a world of dwarfs.

A crippled man isn't a 'preeminent power'.

He is when nobody else has legs!

His legs fell off due to mismanagement.

[Razgovory]

Sorry, but Russia remained a military power compared to the rest of the world.  Power is relative and 1990's (and now) are fairly demilitarized.  Look at it's closest competitors.  Europe was completely incapable of even intervening in Yugoslav wars without US leadership.  And really, who else is there?  Brazil?  China?  Japan?  Russia remains a major power almost by default.

[CountDeMoney]

Sorry, but Russia remained a military power compared to the rest of the world.  Power is relative and 1990's (and now) are fairly demilitarized.  Look at it's closest competitors.  Europe was completely incapable of even intervening in Yugoslav wars without US leadership.  And really, who else is there?  Brazil?  China?  Japan?  Russia remains a major power almost by default.

It took Putin weeks to scrape together the best echelon units for the Georgian invasion, and while they won the war, they got seriously bloodied.  If that's the best they can do, it's not much to go on.

[DGuller]

Sorry, but Russia remained a military power compared to the rest of the world.  Power is relative and 1990's (and now) are fairly demilitarized.  Look at it's closest competitors.  Europe was completely incapable of even intervening in Yugoslav wars without US leadership.  And really, who else is there?  Brazil?  China?  Japan?  Russia remains a major power almost by default.

It took Putin weeks to scrape together the best echelon units for the Georgian invasion, and while they won the war, they got seriously bloodied.  If that's the best they can do, it's not much to go on.

They got bloodied? The Georgian war was a complete rout for the Georgians.  As soon as Russians became involved, the Georgian strategy switched to continuous retreat and pleading for mercy.

[Neil]

You were probably too young to remember just how weak Russia was in the 90s.

[Ideologue]

Pretty much all years in history have been bad for Russia. The entire Chinese zodiac is bad for Russia.

Russia spent a plurality of the last century as one of the two most powerful nations on earth, and all of it as one of the preeminent global powers. 

I doubt it would be this year, but Kremlinology is anything but an exact science.  I don't expect the Olympics to go very well, and frankly I think the Putin administration is starting to really stink.

Russia being a Superpower is bad for Russia and bad for the World

Being a power is over-rated.
I'd much rather be born in piddly little Norway (for a random example) than in supposed world number 2 China. Or hell. The US.

It must be nice, yes.  Norway's safety was purchased by American power.

Every country in NATO that does not possess its own native deterrent, i.e. all but the UK and France, need to pony up the fair share of America's 1945-1991 defense budget for each citizen who's been alive since the beginning of that period, and transmit it directly to the U.S. Treasury.  HEY ZANZA YOU OWE ME AND BOB MCNAMARA MONEY

[CountDeMoney]

They got bloodied? The Georgian war was a complete rout for the Georgians.  As soon as Russians became involved, the Georgian strategy switched to continuous retreat and pleading for mercy.

I know it offends your Cossack sensibilities, but Russia's performance in that war was wholly underwhelming;  their ramp up took far too long for front-line units that are supposed to fight "as is", their air support operation was atrocious by NATO standards, and the Georgians performed very well on the tactical level considering their lack of air and offensive capability.  Just ask the HQ battalion of 58th Army, which got almost all of its vehicles brewed when they were royally buttfucked by a smaller group of Georgians. 

The time it took 40K troops to deal with 15K Georgians with no air power was no great feat.  Iraq 2003 it wasn't.

So save the pan-slavism pride, your boy Putin's conventional capabilities are at best a good third world country.  Lucky for him, Georgia was a poor third world country.

[Martinus]

Astrology Jake? 

Xiacob

[Martinus]

1929: The Great Depression
1941: Pearl Harbor
1953: Coup in Iran
1965: Operation Rolling Thunder
1977: New York City blackout
1989: Exxon Valdez spill, Hurricane Hugo, Loma Prieta earthquake
2001: 9/11

Not looking so great for the US either...

I was born in a year of the snake. How's that for a calamity?

[Martinus]

WTF is the significance of a red envelope?

On special occasions - the Lunar New Year, Birthdays, Weddings - older relatives/guests give red envelopes containing cash to younger relatives/the people being celebrated.

It's basically a formalized way for grandpa to hand out the change in his pockets to the grand kids. I expect you to approve, as it's a transfer of wealth from older, richer people to younger, less affluent ones.

Not really. Transfer of wealth along blood lines is the anathema to socialist thinking. That's why there should be a 100% estate tax.

[Camerus]

It's not just along blood lines.  It's also about noblesse oblige along traditional Confucian lines, as generally higher-ups will give to those subordinate to them, such as employees.  Thus I've received red envelopes from employers and other benefactors and have also given them to certain domestics I employ, such as my driver and my cleaning lady.

[DGuller]

They got bloodied? The Georgian war was a complete rout for the Georgians.  As soon as Russians became involved, the Georgian strategy switched to continuous retreat and pleading for mercy.

I know it offends your Cossack sensibilities, but Russia's performance in that war was wholly underwhelming;  their ramp up took far too long for front-line units that are supposed to fight "as is", their air support operation was atrocious by NATO standards, and the Georgians performed very well on the tactical level considering their lack of air and offensive capability.  Just ask the HQ battalion of 58th Army, which got almost all of its vehicles brewed when they were royally buttfucked by a smaller group of Georgians. 

The time it took 40K troops to deal with 15K Georgians with no air power was no great feat.  Iraq 2003 it wasn't.

So save the pan-slavism pride, your boy Putin's conventional capabilities are at best a good third world country.  Lucky for him, Georgia was a poor third world country.

Believe me, nothing would please me more than seeing Putin's ass get kicked by Georgia.  However, the whole war took 10 days, and Georgians were pleading for mercy long before it ended.  Yes, Russians got into one ambush, but one ambush generally doesn't define a war.

[Solmyr]

Lotta stretching there. New Yorkers going without electricity for a while hardly makes for a bad year for the country. And the really bad coup in Iran was much later.

About as much stretching as for Russia. I mean, 1905 was overall a nice idea as it started a process of democratization, and even 1917 started out as a good idea, only going to shit later. And Stalin's death was the opposite of a bad thing for Russia, considering it was followed by Khruschev's liberalization. Then there's a rather long period where nothing special happened, in 1965 or 1977. Nothing in 2001 either.

[Neil]

I mean, 1905 was overall a nice idea as it started a process of democratization, and even 1917 started out as a good idea, only going to shit later.

They were bloody and violent and generally bad.

Besides, Tsushima happened in 1905, and that was the most devastating naval defeat in history.